Automatic Outs

by
June 18, 2018

Remember Eno Sarris? Yeah, me neither. But I used to co-host the podcast with a guy who liked to talk about infield flyballs or pop-ups and their value for a pitcher. In essence, they are automatic outs. They almost never turn into hits and the rare times they yield a base runner is usually because of an error. Pop-ups are gold for pitchers. After years of thinking that pitchers had zero control once the ball left their hands, we now acknowledge the value of contact management for pitchers. Their arsenal and approach can improve their ability to induce poor, playable contact either on the ground or in the air.

Since co-hosting with that one guy who loved pop-ups, I’ve had a leaderboard saved for Automatic Outs which has a pitcher’s infield flyballs, strikeouts, and total batters faced. I export it to Excel and calculate their AO%: the number of plate appearances ending in an Automatic Out (I know there can be dropped third strikes, guy who is getting ready to comment down below… relax!). I used a sample of 151 pitchers with at least 40 innings, which eliminated all full-time relievers, but a few swingmen snuck in. The average of the group was 25%. Here’s a look at the Top 40, which happened to perfectly include everyone at 28% or higher:

Automatic Out%
Name IFFB% K% AO%
1 Max Scherzer 17% 39% 43%
2 Gerrit Cole 15% 37% 41%
3 Chris Sale 16% 34% 37%
4 Jacob deGrom 22% 33% 37%
5 Justin Verlander 14% 32% 36%
6 James Paxton 12% 31% 34%
7 Ross Stripling 19% 30% 34%
8 Caleb Smith 20% 28% 34%
9 Trevor Bauer 11% 31% 33%
10 Shohei Ohtani 11% 31% 33%
11 Patrick Corbin 9% 31% 33%
12 Charlie Morton 12% 31% 33%
13 Luis Severino 8% 31% 32%
14 Mike Foltynewicz 15% 29% 32%
15 J.A. Happ 16% 28% 32%
16 Vince Velasquez 10% 28% 31%
17 Noe Ramirez 13% 28% 31%
18 Dylan Bundy 10% 27% 30%
19 Blake Snell 10% 28% 30%
20 Yu Darvish 13% 27% 30%
21 Stephen Strasburg 5% 29% 30%
22 Domingo German 9% 28% 30%
23 Noah Syndergaard 8% 28% 30%
24 Garrett Richards 14% 27% 30%
25 Zack Greinke 13% 26% 29%
26 Jack Flaherty 13% 26% 29%
27 Nick Pivetta 10% 27% 29%
28 Corey Kluber 11% 27% 29%
29 Jon Gray 13% 27% 29%
30 Jose Berrios 12% 26% 29%
31 Kenta Maeda 4% 28% 29%
32 Seth Lugo 7% 27% 29%
33 David Price 18% 24% 29%
34 Clayton Kershaw 10% 27% 29%
35 Masahiro Tanaka 14% 25% 28%
36 Walker Buehler 8% 27% 28%
37 Aaron Nola 11% 26% 28%
38 Tyler Skaggs 8% 26% 28%
39 Jake Odorizzi 14% 23% 28%
40 Eduardo Rodriguez 4% 27% 28%

There are no real surprises at the top, which makes sense since strikeout rate is doing most of the heavy lifting here, but we do see some of the early standouts adding Automatic Outs via the pop-up with Ross Stripling, Caleb Smith, Mike Foltynewicz and J.A. Happ all in the top 15. In fact, Smith (20%), Stripling (19%), and Happ (16%) are all among the 15 in pop-ups. Folty is 22nd at 15%. They didn’t make the top 40 cut, but Junior Guerra (17%) and Kyle Gibson (18%) are leveraging pop-ups to supplement their decent strikeout rates.

Here’s a look at the top 25 in infield flyball rate:

Infield Flyball%
Name IFFB%
1 Jacob deGrom 22%
2 Jeremy Hellickson 21%
3 Miguel Castro 21%
4 Caleb Smith 20%
5 Zack Godley 19%
6 Ross Stripling 19%
7 David Price 18%
8 Kyle Gibson 18%
9 Max Scherzer 17%
10 Junior Guerra 17%
11 Andrew Heaney 16%
12 Chris Sale 16%
13 J.A. Happ 16%
14 Luke Weaver 16%
15 Ryan Yarbrough 16%
16 Brent Suter 16%
17 Jaime Barria 16%
18 Gerrit Cole 15%
19 Carlos Martinez 15%
20 Reynaldo Lopez 15%
21 Marco Estrada 15%
22 Mike Foltynewicz 15%
23 Derek Holland 14%
24 Garrett Richards 14%
25 Jake Odorizzi 14%

Frankly, I’m surprised the Mets infielders even catch the pop-ups that deGrom induces given how often they waste his greatness. Jake Odorizzi charting well on infield flyballs with an improved strikeout rate (+2 pts to 23%) would intrigue more if he didn’t also allow a ton of home runs (1.6 the last 3 yrs). I guess the same goes for Masahiro Tanaka, but he’s on the shelf until his hamstring transplant is done so we’ll worry about that later. Maybe infield flyballs are the key to sporadic success of Reynaldo Lopez. By raw count, only Marco Estrada (19) has more infield flyballs than Lopez (18). Smith and Justin Verlander are tied with 18, as well.

There are 15 guys from the top 40 in AO% who have a 10% or lower infield flyball rate:

Top 40 AO% & Low IFFB%
Name IFFB%
1 Kenta Maeda 4%
2 Eduardo Rodriguez 4%
3 Stephen Strasburg 5%
4 Seth Lugo 7%
5 Luis Severino 8%
6 Walker Buehler 8%
7 Tyler Skaggs 8%
8 Noah Syndergaard 8%
9 Patrick Corbin 9%
10 Domingo German 9%
11 Dylan Bundy 10%
12 Blake Snell 10%
13 Nick Pivetta 10%
14 Vince Velasquez 10%
15 Clayton Kershaw 10%

As you can see from this list, infield flyballs are not a prerequisite for success. It’s just an added bonus for those who can induce that kind of contact regularly. Given the small samples involved, the guys at the bottom of this list could flip their rate with a couple of good games.

So that’s a quick look Automatic Outs. It’s not some holy grail to uncovering gems, but I like to keep an eye on it throughout the season. When that guy who used to co-host the pod wasn’t talking about sandwiches, he was talkin’ pop-ups and now I notice them whenever I’m watching a start. It’s not a super common event, but they are helpful. Strikeouts are the fantasy lifeblood, but pop-ups are automatics and getting a couple every three starts can enhance a guy’s bottom line, especially the ones that come with runners on and help a pitcher out of a jam.





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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tb.25
5 years ago

With the change of pitching locations over the last few years (going from pitching low in the zone to now pitching up), I wonder if the better pitchers just happen to hit their preferred spots better.

Looking at this from 5 or 6 years back would be fascinating.

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