The Daily Grind: The Ultimate DH Solution
I have a sim league set in 2007. My team has a 66-93 record with three games to go. My run differential is -16. Another 66-93 team has a differential of -170. Two teams that are 61 and 98 have run differentials of -218 and -236. It’s a 20 team league originally founded by Kevin Goldstein. All six playoff teams have between 104 and 120 wins. My team wasn’t meant to contend this season, so underperforming was the best result.
AGENDA
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
- The Ultimate DH Solution
1. The Daily Grind Invitational
Yosoyfiesta33 not only captured the victory on Friday, they also posted the highest score I’ve seen on FantasyDraft. The 204.6 points came courtesy of well-rounded, premium production – no thanks to a two point Michael Brantley night. Congrats and Leaderboard.
We’re rolling 52 entries deep on FantasyDraft. You may enter twice in this no rake GPP.
If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.
2. Weather Reports
Instability rules the day. Cleveland is very likely to see thunderstorms – enough that postponement is possible. Chicago (NL) also has some lesser risk. Colorado, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia aren’t quite in the clear either. Monitor accordingly.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Main Slate: We have a nine game slate this evening. Three pitchers stand above the fray. At this time, I’ll probably avoid Trevor Bauer ($23,800) due to the threat of rain. That also removes breakout bargain Dylan Covey ($13,500).
Gerrit Cole looks worth every bit of his $25,000 salary opposite Ryne Stanek and Matt Andriese. Although I like to play with the Rays “starters,” Andriese usually only throws about three innings. For $9,000 and opposite the Astros, it’s just not a good use of funds.
The third ace is Jacob deGrom ($21,300) at Coors Field. He’s not exactly discounted. While I like the idea of using a low ownership deGrom, the risk profile doesn’t quite add up for me. I’ll remain open minded until lineups are posted. He’s opposed by lefty Tyler Anderson ($12,300) who typically is unaffected by pitching at Coors. He also partially counteracts some of the Mets best bats.
Kenta Maeda ($17,600) seems a tad pricey for a pairing against the Cubs. The wind is blowing out at a healthy 15 mph. Maeda also makes short starts.
Zack Greinke ($17,200) makes a lot of sense as a high floor target with some upside. He just has to avoid Mike Trout. Jaime Barria ($16,000) is on the other side of the matchup. I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop on what I consider an unimpressive profile. He’s produced good results to date.
Caleb Smith ($15,100) at pitcher friendly AT&T Field looks like the money play to me. I still tell everybody who will listen that Smith is a future high quality reliever. He also serves as great example of what all these multi-inning relievers could accomplish in the rotation. You think a Hader or Devenski couldn’t be just as good or better? In any case, it’s a good matchup at a lovely park. Andrew Suarez ($13,800) also has upside value since he’s facing the Marlins.
I’m looking forward to betting either side of the Miles Mikolas ($16,000) and Nick Pivetta ($14,900) matchup. The Phillies are strikeout prone which should help Mikolas’ greatest weakness. While Pivetta is somewhat inconsistent, his best outings typically score in the 25 to 35 point range. That makes him a strong pick in deeper GPPs.
Stack Targets: Stanek/Andriese, Trevor Williams, Tyler Chatwood, Ian Kennedy, Bartolo, Tyler Anderson
None of these stack targets are doomed to failure. All six (excluding Stanek) could be a top value play. Still, if I’m looking for a stack, I’d start here.
4. SaberSim Says…
Cole, Bauer, deGrom, Greinke, and Pivetta are the top rated pitchers tonight. Pivetta could be quite GPP chalky. Values include Suarez, Williams, and Pivetta. The best bats are heavily Cleveland focused, although I think SaberSim is underselling Covey. Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor, Todd Frazier, and Asdrubal Cabrera carry the top projections. You can tell which team is at Coors Field. Top bargains consist of Amed Rosario, Alex Gordon, and Elvis Andrus (yep, he’s expected to return).
5. The Ultimate DH Solution
This is where I point you to my personal blog on Patreon. I’ve long championed a very specific solution to the designated hitter debate. To me, it’s very clearly the best option. Here’s a snippet from the linked post containing the actual proposed rule:
Rule: The home manager shall decide XX* minutes before scheduled start time if they will use a designated hitter for the pitcher. If no, then there is no designated hitter for the game. If yes, the away manager will then have the option to also use a designated hitter.
*Where XX equals some value between 5 and 30 minutes.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
I know this is a daily post, but for weekly HxH players who follow along (like me) it’s worth noting that Suarez has a really nice 2 start week with the Fish at home today and the Pads over the weekend. . . .
Nice tip. Firing him up
(also nice name)
For fantasy purpose I like lineups out as early as possible if you’re telling me I’m only going to know a lineup 5 minutes before a game no one will be happy!
I don’t disagree, but we’ll all adjust accordingly. They could also set the decision time to four hours before game. I think it’s “better” to do it in front of a home crowd, but it’s not necessary.
The league can also ask teams to release provisional lineups with/without DH ~3 hours before game time. You can bet they already receive guidance to do so – or will once they start directly collecting some sports betting money.
I would expect sites that don’t allow late swaps like FanDuel and FantasyDraft to update their platform.
The most annoying thing in the world is to have a pitcher get injured either hitting or running the bases especially A.L pitchers who aren’t accustomed to it. If your idea is to A) leave up to the home manager B) not make an announcement to a few minutes before a game I think that’s too crazy. Pitchers and players have their pre game routine and are creatures of habit the idea to have opposing managers pick is a little far fetched. No one would be happy if Sale, Kluber or any other ace got injured hitting in an A.L game. If you want to get rid of pitchers hitting I get that the league needs more offense
Sure, injuries are annoying, but it’s not like DHs don’t get injured either. It just makes less of a psychological impact on us.
I frequently preach that baseball needs to mix up the metas. This need not be a permanent change, but it’s a better/more interesting trial than completely doing away with pitchers hitting. Alas, doing away with the DH does not seem to be on the table.
I think you’d be wiping out the true DH position for the best hitters. For example, why should a team agree to face prime David Ortiz when Boston isn’t at Fenway? No hitter they throw out could match him. Ortiz would get 81 games started, max. Whether or not that’s good or bad is another story, but I can see casual fans getting frustrated when they can’t see the game’s best hitters hit in half of their games.
They could… play a position?
Well, that’s why I tried to say this would hurt “true” DH’s. There aren’t many of those anymore as it is, so maybe it’s all moot. Just thinking about someone like Ortiz, who didn’t have the legs to stand at first for more than a few games a year.
Hi. Brain: what is the reason that tou use two different typing in the pitcher stack target part?
If you’re referring to the Rays pitchers, it’s because Stanek is the listed starter but Andriese will throw more innings as the second pitcher.
I mean why Colon and anderson are lighter color writing , i follow you everyday. You have done a lots that before. Please tell me why?
thank you
We run our articles through an auto-linker when we’re done. We don’t manually link each name. So if it doesn’t match what’s in the system (i.e. I needed to write “Bartolo Colon”) or if a player has already been referenced (Anderson was in the deGrom blurb), then it won’t link.
Srry. Mr brad not brain
Declaring the DH doesn’t have to coincide with the formal lineup submission. Maybe the home manger calls for the DH by 9AM on game day. Or 24 hours in advance of the first pitch. Or maybe even declares it for the entire home series rather than on a game-by-game basis. Shit, I dunno, maybe even further in advance … DH usage could certainly lead to 25-man adjustments for a team without an obvious candidate, and sometimes that takes planning.
I’d argue that’s a feature. I want to see awkward rosters affecting some sort of strategy for the other team. This offers such an opportunity.
Sure. And I happen to agree. But the Lords of Baseball seldom go for plans that knowingly increase chaos. Teams know their interleague schedule literally months in advance and you still read about complaints from NL managers who are unhappy that their roster isn’t built right for running out a DH.
I definitely like the DH option as a great “if only” baseball rule tho.
Re: Mikolas vs the team who strikes out too much…That’s not how exploitation works. If Phillies weakness is they strikeout too much, you want to exploit them by starting the pitcher who strikes out a lot of hitters.
No, you want to exploit them using any pitcher who projects to provide above average points against a neutral K-rate opponent. Because they’ll get more strikeouts and thus be more above average.
Ugh, how about we just get rid of the DH altogether. Can’t stand it.