Last week I wanted to discuss the chance that Kyle Gibson becomes fantasy relevant in 2018 despite going undrafted everywhere and destined for your waiver wire. In the same light, it’s time to talk about Joe Biagini, the Toronto Blue Jays arm that seems oh-so-close to becoming a stable choice across the board.
Over the past week and change I have shared our ottoneu FanGraphs points player rankings for C/1B/3B , 2B/SS, and OF, and today we wrap things up with SP/RP. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Trey Baughn, and the default values from the FanGraphs Auction Calculator using the ottoneu FanGraphs points preset (Steamer projections). We are presenting our individual dollar values, plus the weighted average of all three rankings (2:2:1 weighting with the Auction Calc weighted less). In addition, the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked only at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).
On Wednesday night, one of my Ottoneu baseball leagues had its second-year auction. I’m a bit of an Ottoneu junkie—I’m in three different baseball leagues and one football one—but this is the first time I remember completing a draft before March. As such, I thought it would be fun and hopefully useful for readers for me to share some of the results from the auction as well as my thoughts and strategies.
Although it’s not quite an age-old debate, we in the fantasy baseball community like to argue the relative merits of using the win or quality start (henceforth QS) for measuring pitcher performance. Obviously, in a general baseball sense, we mostly agree that neither stat is important. However, for fantasy purposes, a count of good starts does seem a useful category. And we only have two ways to do it – either use wins or QS. I’m here to propose a third alternative.
2/22/18
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In the latest episode of the Launch Angle Podcast, Rob Silver asked me how many Wins did I expect Chris Archer to accumulate this season. Basically, I came back with my normal response, I don’t chase Wins and don’t care. He pushed a little harder and wondered the actual difference. I just stammered out a horrible response because I didn’t know. I’m not one to not know so found out with the answer being a win or two.
For years, I’ve used the potential for more Wins as a tie breaker between pitchers with similar baseline stats (strikeouts, walks, and groundball rate). I focused on talent first. Usually, I found pitchers on projected better teams being drafted way ahead of those with similar skills on worse teams. I just assumed the better skills will lead the pitcher to as many Wins as the worse pitcher on a better team. There is no need for me to make that assumption anymore.
Most Fantasy drafts embody a sort of Calvinist view of the world: your draft position is a matter of predestination, where you wind up is arbitrarily determined, and there’s nothing you can do to alter the outcome. But drafts in the National Fantasy Baseball League are more Lutheran: there are things you can do to affect your position. To determine draft order in snake drafts, the NFBC uses what it calls the Kentucky Derby System, because it resembles the way post positions get chosen for the Derby. NFBC owners can indicate their draft position preferences beforehand by ranking them. If the owner doesn’t bother, the default ranking for that team is what you’d expect: 1 through Whatever. The NFBC computer then randomly picks the order in which each owner’s preferences are consulted. The first owner gets her first choice, the second owner gets his first choice unless it’s already gone, in which case the computer moves on to the next owner and doesn’t come back to Owner Number Two until everyone else’s first preferences have been consulted. And so it proceeds with second preferences, third preferences, and so on. Thus, it’s theoretically possible that the last owner in the KDS sequence gets the first draft choice.
The question is, does she want it? And that’s what we decided to find out: are there any differences at all, this year, among draft positions? If so, how big are the differences and which positions are best? And how can you go about getting those positions? Read the rest of this entry »
Today marks the end of xBABIP week, after I shared and discussed 11 hitters potentially due for a BABIP surge and 10 hitters at risk of dramatic decline over the last two days. Today I’ll check in on hitters that at first glance, wouldn’t appear to be far off from their xBABIP marks, while the surgers and decliners list were quite a bit more obvious. If you posted a .230 BABIP in 2017, you’re probably going to find yourself on a potential surger list, while a .380 BABIP is likely going to get you onto the decliner list.
I’m trying something new this winter. For years, I’ve lamented the near worthlessness of rankings. Here’s me in 2014 saying some things about how much I hate rankings. Here I am again in 2016. Here’s me with a graph (that’s not me!). Apparently, this post is an even-year tradition. However, I’m doing things a little differently this time. That’s what we’re here to talk about today.
It has been quite a while since we did one of these because the Hot Stove has been so ice cold. We’re finally starting to see big moves as the stove thaws and I expect a steady stream of moves for the duration of the offseason until the bulk of available players find homes.
Yu Darvish to CHC
Darvish stays in the NL and heads to Chicago to join the Cubs. I had him ranked 13th in my most recent SP ranking update back in late-January and I can’t imagine moving him much, if at all, on my next update. He remains well supported by a deep bullpen and strong offense. Don’t get too hung up on the World Series starts. A week before that he was dismantling his new team (6.3 IP/1 ER/7 K in NLCS) and the Diamondbacks (5 IP/1 ER/7 K in NLDS). Your Mike Montgomery shares just went the way of Bitconnect for now, but in leagues deep enough to take him in the first place, he’ll still hold some value as a super reliever (just 7 appearances of an inning or less last year).