Surprise! You Believed Their 2017 BABIPs, But Shouldn’t Have

Today marks the end of xBABIP week, after I shared and discussed 11 hitters potentially due for a BABIP surge and 10 hitters at risk of dramatic decline over the last two days. Today I’ll check in on hitters that at first glance, wouldn’t appear to be far off from their xBABIP marks, while the surgers and decliners list were quite a bit more obvious. If you posted a .230 BABIP in 2017, you’re probably going to find yourself on a potential surger list, while a .380 BABIP is likely going to get you onto the decliner list.

I generally chose hitters with at least a 0.030 gap between BABIP and xBABIP (.300 BABIP vs .330 or .270 xBABIP) with an actual BABIP not too far from league average (.300 in 2017).

The first five hitters in the table posted BABIP marks below their xBABIP marks, suggesting upside this season, while the last set of five posted BABIP marks above their xBABIP marks, suggesting downside.

Though I can’t guarantee he’ll hold it all year, Adam Frazier figures to open the season as the Pirates starter in left field. Though he has first accumulated a full season’s worth of at-bats over two years now, he has shown tremendous BABIP skills. He hits a ton of liners, rarely pops up, doesn’t get shifted, and possesses above average speed. It would be easy to chalk his .353 BABIP in 2016 up as a fluke and bet on a repeat close to 2017, but a rebound should be coming.

Injury limited Devon Travis to just 185 at-bats, but while his BABIP fell to its lowest mark since debuting in the Majors, his xBABIP actually surged thanks to that inflated LD%. That’s unlikely to be sustained though, but his BABIP should still get back over the .300 hump. Whether he’ll have a starting job this year or not is a question for another day.

Dexter Fowler just set a new career low in BABIP, and he still managed to keep it above the league average! His xBABIP, though, hasn’t been this high since 2012. He continues to knock line drives, avoid the dreaded pop-up, utilize his speed, and display decent power.

I haven’t been much of an Addison Russell fan and it’s worked out so far, but his xBABIP is actually on a two-year climb. Though his BABIP has fallen below .300 for two seasons running now, this was the first time his xBABIP surged above that plateau. He could thank his sudden knack for hitting liners and cutting down on his pop-ups. Can he do it again? Without much speed, he’s gotta do something besides hit some homers in order to produce value for fantasy owners and a batting average spike could be that something.

It’s easy to give up on Dansby Swanson, but it’s been just 696 plate appearances, which is essentially one season. Who gives up on a top prospect after one bad year?! This is the second season in a row that Swanson has posted an xBABIP well above the league average, confirming he owns legit BABIP skills. It’s driven by a nice liner rate, few pop-ups, and nary a grounder hit into the shift. Yes, you want to see more power and speed for fantasy, but I think this is a pretty good skill base and would be delighted to buy him in an NL-Only league at bargain basement prices.

So Didi Gregorius has now outperformed his xBABIP in four of five seasons, but this was the largest outperformance of his career so far. His issues stem from lots of fly balls, too many pop-ups, a severe lack of power, and below average speed. Since I’m also not buying the career high HR/FB rate given a weak Brls/True FB, he’s an easy bust call for me.

Yasmani Grandal has alternated outperforming and underperforming his xBABIP marks, so there is seemingly no skill he possesses that’s unaccounted for in xBABIP. In 2017, he straight up just got lucky, posting the highest BABIP since his 2012 debut. He simply doesn’t hit enough line drives, hits too many pop-ups, and grounds into the shift often. News that he’s actually the starting catcher, not Austin Barnes, will likely drive up his price, which would lead me to bowing out.

As a new owner of Carlos Gonzalez in last week’s LABR Mixed draft (pick 327!), I’m hoping that a) he finds a home soon with a starting job and b) isn’t as terrible as his road splits suggest he may be. The good news is that he has handily outperformed his xBABIP for six straight seasons now, but of course Coors Field should get all the credit.

Robinson Chirinos‘ xBABIP hit a career low and yet his BABIP rose to a career high. Go figure. He has suddenly become allergic to hitting line drives and his pop-up rate has gotten out of control. The pop-ups are especially problematic given his high fly ball rate. Pay for the power, but expect a harmful batting average to go along with it.

Yoenis Cespedes is coming off a season marred by injury, which may or may not be behind his xBABIP plunging. Then again, maybe this is just regression back to previously established levels. His xBABIP has oddly bounced around from the low-.270 range in 2013 and 2014 to .300-.310 in 2015 and 2016, before dropping back to his 2013 and 2014 level this past year. He hits too many pop-ups and needs to get back to hitting line drives.