Note: There was a ton of guys (e.g. Matt Bush) I wanted to see in Arizona but none of the relevant games were broadcast. It’s 95% Grapefruit league today.

Braves vs Nationals

A radar gun and some interesting young arms pulled me into this game.

Max Scherzer
FB: 91-94 mph
SL: 85-88 mph (straight up nasty)
CB: 75-78 mph
CH: 83-86 mph

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The Screw Cancer league drafted last night. It’s an ottoneu FGpts format put together by former FanGraphs kingpin Dave Cameron. He – and some others – were forced to leave the league due to new commitments. It’s my first season in Screw Cancer, and it was my first draft of the season.

Since joining the league, we’ve raised $1,283 for cancer-related charities. If you’d like to participate, please contact me directly.

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Jason mentioned this idea on Sunday’s pod so I went ahead and put it together. It’s a list of all the players on 40-man rosters who are out of options and thus could have the inside track on roster spots if they’re directly competing with someone who does have an option left. He mentioned that he uses this info to identify some options for AL/NL Only leagues where playing time is king. Hat tip to Justin for the title of this piece!

I didn’t pick and choose who to mention so you’ll see some guys who are obviously not in grave danger of even being sent down at any point. Instead, I’m just listing all the 40-man players with a “0” in the options column on Roster Resource. These guys could be dealt to or picked up by teams where their playing time gets a boost.

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The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).

2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani

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2/25/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Shohei Ohtani debuts (2:00)
• J.D. Martinez to BOS delayed a bit (9:15)
• Mike Minor still eyeing SP role (13:50)
• Jurickson Profar expected to be on OD roster (19:40)
• Joe Musgrove to throw a BP (25:50)
• Buster Posey held out w/minor ankle injury (29:45)
• Placing the remaining SPs [Morosi piece] – Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb (35:10)

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Brewers vs Angels

The rest of the media covered Shohei Ohtani in depth but I needed to see him for myself. Here are my thoughts.

Shohei Ohtani allowed a run while recording two strikeouts and a foul popout in his first inning. His fastball ranged from 93-97 mph. He threw some nasty secondary pitches, including a particularly nice 69-mph curveball.

— Pedro Moura (@pedromoura) February 24, 2018

• I was not impressed. He looks to be a good pitcher, just not at ace level.
• The fastball was straight. The curve is slow and loopy. He had little feel for breaking balls. His split-change did look good though. It’s early but he did not impress.
• He’s a little slow throwing to home from the stretch with an average time of 1.5 seconds (below league average). He has a little early pause. I’d not be surprised if he has problems controlling the running.

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This marks the fifth consecutive spring for tracking new pitches at Fangraphs. In 2014, the series was launched with a piece featuring both a retired and current pitcher and their insight into adding new pitches during the offseason and/or in camp. The 2015 tracking was done at RotoJunkieFix where I serve as the CIO which is just a fancy title for the guy that keeps a 20+ year old fantasy community up and running in his spare time. By popular demand, the 2016 New Pitch Tracker gained front page real estate here and I updated it throughout the spring with help from Jeff Zimmerman and others scraping the stories from the web and the crew at BrooksBaseball helping validate the pitches. There was quite a bit of activity on the 2017 New Pitch Tracker, but it has been rather quiet in 2018.

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I’m not sure how often I’ll go through the league each day during spring training but it should be fairly often. I’m going to focus on the players whose status is up in the air and could see their values change.

Detroit vs New York Yankees

Miguel Cabrera swings (8 and 1:02-minute mark)

I am no trained scout but even though he got a single in his second at-bat, there was no power behind any of his swings. I’m not buying any improvement for now.

Mets vs Braves

Zack Wheeler was one of the few pitchers who threw Friday I wanted to see how he performed after missing the two months last year with an arm injury. It was only an inning of work and the camera angle was rough but he looked fine. Here are his pitch velocity’s from the broadcast radar gun.

• FB 94-97
• SL 87-88
• CU 77 12-6

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I’ve been prepping for two AL-only leagues, so the today’s thoughts only involve mainly AL hitters but can be extended to either league. While working on my evaluations here are some observations.

Create a plan for the injured X-factors

The two hitters who could carry a fantasy team, if healthy, are Michael Brantley and Miguel Cabrera. If (BIG IF) they get a full season of healthy plate appearances, I’d not be surprised if they were top-20 hitters. Owners aren’t showing a ton of faith since Cabrera’s ADP is at 95 and Brantley’s at 245.

No one knows for sure how they’ll perform so owners need to know before the draft where they feel they can gamble on rostering them. Owners need to make this decision ahead of time, not on the fly in a draft or auction. Come up with a plan you can live with and stick to it. Their evaluations can be adjusted as detailed reports become available from spring training on their health.

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Transcript is below!

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