No Rankings, No Mocks: Before Photo
I’m trying something new this winter. For years, I’ve lamented the near worthlessness of rankings. Here’s me in 2014 saying some things about how much I hate rankings. Here I am again in 2016. Here’s me with a graph (that’s not me!). Apparently, this post is an even-year tradition. However, I’m doing things a little differently this time. That’s what we’re here to talk about today.
I see many problems with rankings. From my perspective, the worst is anchoring. When I build lists in November and December, I always have a few outliers who buck the consensus – often guys coming off a hot finish in the previous season. And I become very attached to those values. Awareness of the problem only goes so far towards combating it. The real solution to early-winter anchoring is to just avoid it altogether.
Rankings take a lot of time and energy to build, and they only make me worse as a fantasy player. Sounds like wasted effort to me.
Not building rankings or reading my colleague’s work is easy. I simply choose not to do it, and then it doesn’t happen. There are no negative externalities.
Skipping all of the mock drafts is so much more difficult. In my opinion, drafts are the best part of fantasy sports. Offseason industry mocks are a fantastic opportunity to hop on google hangout, drink a few beers*, and have a great time with my fellow baseball nerds.
*It helps that I’m on a no alcohol diet for another 16 days. Drafts without beer or whiskey are weird.
So what’s wrong with mock drafting? As I established, they aren’t a tedious chore like building rankings. They’re fun! They also leave the participant prone to anchoring effects. I can’t really justify dodging my work if I’m just going to let myself anchor to RTS and Couch Managers ADPs.
My 2017 mock season included a lot of Jonathan Villar and Trevor Story selections at the 2nd/3rd round turn. For some reason, I was picking first very often. Luckily, my real redrafts didn’t fall prey to that combination – I wasn’t picking first in those. I did keep the pair in several leagues, but those prices were so low that I still profited. The point being, I was so in on Villar and Story. They could have ruined my season.
Parting Thoughts
To be clear, this isn’t a plea to go into your drafts cold. At the end of the day, rankings and mock drafts are about preparation. Since this is literally my job, I need substantially less time than the average bear to get ready for my drafts. By all means, join me in my quest to avoid developing bad habits. Just make sure you’re still prepared on draft day.
Pretty soon, it will be time to test my experiment. In the next week or so, I’ll need to start prepping for drafts. I may even pop together some late rankings for your viewing pleasure. Let me know if you really, really want this to happen.
I’m feeling very confident about this new approach to preparing for the draft. This is the before photo. Let’s talk again in late-March after my drafts. And of course, we’ll revisit this approach next offseason too.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
One thing to be aware of is you may be very cognizant of your misses as opposed to those players you were anchored into who were great. I always remember the good players I traded away as opposed to the star I received
I’m confused… is your “new approach” to not consult rankings or mock drafts, but also not go into a draft cold or fall prey to bad habits? What alternative prep work do you suggest? This article feels very vague, apart from an understandable frustration with rankings and the annual player letdowns and surprises.
The advice is to do your homework as late as possible. Being “prepared” in January is detrimental (unless you’re draft then).
So consult rankings and mock drafts in March? I can see how that could help not falling in love with players to get, as well as remove any stigmas associated with certain players due to negative statistical press. As part of this experiment, should readers ignore Rotographs until March as well?
I generally just avoid rankings. I’m pretty sure they’re popular enough that if 5 people follow my advice, nobody will notice.
And as I noted, this is an experiment. I’ll report on results later. I could be wrong.
let’s get an OBP centric rankings FTB!!!
HOT TAKES, COMING THROUGH.
Brad Johnson, the Skip Bayless of Fangraphs.
I can’t imagine anyone on this site being as insufferable as Skip Bayless. I’ve been fortunate to not ever hear his thoughts on baseball.
I avoid rankings as well… not out of an issue with anchoring (it is important to believe in your preparation), but because most rankings do not account for the details behind a players performance. They simply crunch the stats to apply relative values.
As to mock drafting… pointless when you consider the headaches of dealing with the idiots who flock to these just to trash talk their buddies.
As stated, it is all about the prep work; which can take various forms. And relaxing into your league draft by whatever substance/behavior that suits you.