Archive for January, 2018

Me v. the Early NFBC Market: SPs Pt. 2

Last time out, I looked at the pitchers I favored in the early NFBC market and today we’re hitting the other end of the spectrum. There are five Top 50 starters going in early NFBC drafts that I’m at least 10 spots lower on, including one who is nearly 25 spots different. By the way, we will soon have the NFBC’s ADP live on the site, so stay tuned for that!

PITCHERS THE MARKET FAVORS:

Luis Castillo – 36th for me; 26th in NFBC

I consider myself quite a big fan of Castillo (I mean, I do have his Fangraphs player id memorized… that’s a true sign of love, right?!?!), but the market has passed me by, at least in the early drafts. I understand the excitement over his elite stuff and sharp 89-inning debut, but he also rode a .198 AVG and 80% LOB rate to that 3.12 ERA. I regularly hear comps to Luis Severino, but those seem to conveniently forget the busted 2016 for Severino. Of course, there’s nothing that says he has to follow Severino’s path to pan out similarly, especially since Castillo debuted at 24, which is three years older than Severino’s 2015 debut.

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Is Middle Infield Scarcity Overblown?

I think at the crux of it, the question is asking whether people [call them “the market”] are adjusting middle infielders’ values upwards artificially as compared to other positions.  But another way to ask this (from a fantasy baseball drafting perspective), is perhaps:

Due to the market’s perceived value of the scarcity in the Middle Infield (MI) position, are other positions better valued at the draft table?”

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2018 Research Projects: Known and Unknown

Fantasy baseball slowly evolves and with the start of 2018, I’m going to focus on some topics in which savvy and unconventional owners could utilize against their competition. Some of these topics I’ve been contemplating and researching for a while, others are still just dust in the air. The following contains some ideas I hope to have a better understanding of by the year’s end and frame it so owners and utilize it. I’m not the only source of ideas. I’m 100% positive I’ve missed some simple useful topics and would love to research those in presented in the comments.

StatCast Batted Ball Data

As a baseball community, we’ve been slow to adapt and utilize StatCast batted ball information. Besides major league baseball employees, no one is leading the change. Part of the problem is having an easy to access database for everyone to use. That barrier is being removed as tools like Bill Petti’s baseball-r package can be used to help scrape the needed information from Baseball Savant.

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Ottoneu: First Impressions

2018 is here, and the dawn of a new year is the best time to reevaluate your overall fantasy strategy.  But before digging into the finer points of roster construction, auction value calculations, and post-post-hype sleepers, January is also the perfect time to step back and ask whether it might be time to trade in your entire fantasy experience for one of the more advanced, up-and-coming fantasy platforms around.

This is a shameless plug for Ottoneu, a fantasy sports platform so addicting that it has also launched a community of more than 1,000 hardcore baseball fans that sleep and eat baseball year round.  But don’t take my word for it.  There are many reasons why you should try Ottoneu (including some exciting new features launching in 2018), but today I want you to hear from some of the “rookies” who just finished up their first full year of Ottoneu in 2017. This growing community of raving fans is a big part of the Ottoneu experience, and their Season One feedback may help you make the final decision to drive your own league to Ottoneu in 2018.

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Somebody Please Math This To Me

Yesterday, I ran into one of those full stop moments. In a 20-team dynasty league, a rival offered me Todd Frazier for Danny Salazar. Despite a need at third base, I passed on the offer. Dee Gordon was also on his trade block so I reached out about a possible Salazar-Gordon swap. I could use a middle infield upgrade on Jed Lowrie. Both Salazar and Gordon would have ranked #14 on my keeper list. And I have J.D. Martinez and Anthony Rizzo to help offset Gordon’s whopping zero in the home run category. It all smelled fine to me.

You probably can guess the response I received – a flat no. I asked some questions to determine if the issue was our valuation of Salazar or Gordon. He told me Salazar is a top 150 asset – smells right to me. Per my rival, Gordon is a top 50 player. Full stop.

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The 2017 Brls/BBE Decliners

Yesterday, I shared 19 hitters whose Brls/BBE marks spiked from 2016 to 2017. A surge in this metric usually coincides with a jump in HR/FB rate, and sure enough, 18 of the 19 batters did enjoy an increase. Now let’s check in on the hitters who suffered a decline in their Brls/BBE marks. We shall assume that each of their HR/FB rates also declined. Was this actually the case?

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To Amed Rosario Or Not To Amed Rosario

I’ve never been on the Amed Rosario bandwagon. Growing up near Philadelphia gave me a lot of exposure to the Mets prospect dystopia. No fan base spends more time rosterbating about future busts. Anytime I hear a Mets prospect is supposed to be the next big thing, I’m instantly skeptical. Fernando Martinez forever! #FMart.

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The 2017 Brls/BBE Surgers

Towards the end of 2016, one of the most exciting new metrics was introduced using Statcast data — Barrels, which are “well-struck ball[s] where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage”. But counting stats aren’t exactly the best when evaluating performance, as playing time factors in, and we don’t want that. Luckily, Baseball Savant also provides us with a “batted ball event (BBE)” number, and then generously does the math for us, calculating a Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE), which I then use for my analysis. Given that Brls/BBE is a pure measure of power, it stands to reason that we want to see our favorite power surgers enjoy major growth in the metric from one year to the next, in order to validate that increased output. So let’s check in on the Brls/BBE surgers from 2016 to 2017.

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A Minor Review of 2017: Miami Marlins

The Marlins traded off a number of key assets but the minor league system remains thin thanks to less-than-impressive drafts, inconsistent international market returns and so-so trades.

The Graduate: Jarlin Garcia, RHP: A promising but inconsistent starting pitcher in the minors, Garcia had some success in the Majors as a reliever. His control is ahead of his command and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher so he’s susceptible to the home run even though he can hump his heater up into the 95-96 mph range. The southpaw was much better against same-side hitters in 2017 so he’ll need to make some adjustments to develop into a high-leverage arm (but he has a potentially-plus changeup, which gives hope).

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I Resolve To Slay Mine Foes – Part the Third

Last year, I missed my annual resolution to slay mine foes. While I’d like to say the universe imploded as a result, there’s no sign anybody noticed. I’m here to announce that my resolve has returned in time for 2018, lest I inadvertently prove responsible for the annihilation of humankind. Or something.

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