Somebody Please Math This To Me
Yesterday, I ran into one of those full stop moments. In a 20-team dynasty league, a rival offered me Todd Frazier for Danny Salazar. Despite a need at third base, I passed on the offer. Dee Gordon was also on his trade block so I reached out about a possible Salazar-Gordon swap. I could use a middle infield upgrade on Jed Lowrie. Both Salazar and Gordon would have ranked #14 on my keeper list. And I have J.D. Martinez and Anthony Rizzo to help offset Gordon’s whopping zero in the home run category. It all smelled fine to me.
You probably can guess the response I received – a flat no. I asked some questions to determine if the issue was our valuation of Salazar or Gordon. He told me Salazar is a top 150 asset – smells right to me. Per my rival, Gordon is a top 50 player. Full stop.
Any time I choke on somebody’s valuation, I immediately consult other industry resources. In the Rotowire Dynasty Invitational, an ongoing fresh 20-team draft, Gordon was selected 39th overall. ESPN’s Tristan Cockcroft ranks him 50th. The Dynasty Guru hasn’t updated since last March when Gordon was ranked 62nd. A Fake Teams draft saw Gordon go 27th, a spot ahead of Jose Ramirez. PitcherList ranks him the 38th best hitter – so somewhere around 45th overall.
Add it all together, and it’s pretty clear that I’m wrong. I consider him on par with Salazar – somewhere between player 100 and 150. The consensus says I’m a fool. I’ve never been one to worry about looking foolish. Let’s finish this exercise and unpack Dee Gordon the Dynasty Asset.
Player Profile
Dee Gordon
Descriptive Statistics
2018 Age: 30
2018 Eligibility: 2B
Projected New Elig: OF
Projected R Above Average: +10
Projected RBI Above Average: -40
Projected HR Above Average: -20
Projected SB Above Average: +48
Projected OBP Above Average: -.010
A few mathy notes… My projections above average are meant to be illustrative rather than rigorous. I calculated them by finding the average output per lineup spot for all contenders in my deepest league. Yep, N=1. Like I said, it’s illustrative. I tweaked Steamer projections upwards since they seemingly penalize him for missing time due to a PED suspension.
It’s also worth noting that this is compared to the average roster spot. A typical first baseman should have a different distribution of stats from a second baseman or middle infielder. In truth, you can probably mentally shift all of those values closer to average for 2018. Disclaimers done; let’s continue to further analysis.
The Mariners acquired Gordon to serve as an outfielder. In leagues that require 20 games for positional eligibility (i.e. CBS), only a Robinson Cano injury will save Gordon’s 2B status. Since the outfield position is relatively deep compared to middle infield, Gordon’s value will take a huge hit if he’s an outfielder only. While replacement level middle infielders may only produce 10 home runs, replacement level outfielders still pop close to 20. They also steal as many bases as middle infielders.
So what we have here is a soon-to-be 30-year-old outfielder who probably has bonus second base eligibility for one more season. He almost singlehandedly carries the stolen base category, helps with runs, and doesn’t really hurt your OBP (he helps with batting average). In today’s game, it’s not too challenging to find 20 extra home runs in the other lineup spots. A single standout catcher can get the job done. The 40 RBI can be a deceptively challenging barrier to overcome unless you happen to own a Nolan Arenado. Or that catcher with the extra 20 home runs.
One detail that isn’t listed here – Gordon is a soft contact king. That doesn’t really hurt with his profile since he parlays his speed into bonus infield singles. It could affect his longevity though. In fact, I estimate he has about 3.5 years left as a starting major leaguer. A future move back to second base could extend that window. Generally, non-elite players are getting cycled out of full time active duty around their mid-30s. Light bats fall into platoon roles after one shaky season. Gordon already has a few of those in his history.
I expect a top 50 dynasty asset to either offer elite present value or over eight years of core production. For example, there’s a decent chance you can sell Rhys Hoskins for almost as much in 2022 as you can get right now. He’ll be on the back end of his prime. That’s a top 50 asset. Joey Votto may not have many years left in the tank, but he projects for easy top 10 production. That’s a top 50 asset.
By comparison, here’s what the auction calculator thinks of Dee Gordon – he’s ranked as the 100th best player in 2018. I happen to disagree with a few of the assumptions made by the calculator, so I’d mentally bump him to around 80th. My original point still stands. Never mind dynasty considerations, he’s almost in that top 100 to 150 range for 2018 alone. It’s only going to get worse going forward.
Help Me…
As you can see from the above analysis, I tend to use broad strokes when setting values. I briefly had a rigid valuation period and found it to be horribly ineffective. Rather than spend a lot of time creating “perfect” rankings that break as soon as games are played, I aim for good enough in as little time as possible.
I imagine this is where my approach is breaking from the consensus. There must be some math that shows Gordon is far more valuable as a dynasty asset than my quick smell test. Please explain it to me. Really. I’m being sincere. Hear my plea baseball twitter. And show your work.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Where is Gordon’s current owner on the league win curve? If this is someone competing in a limited/late window I can see them valuing Gordon’s likely final season as a 2B near his peak ADP. In which case it makes sense for that owner to weight his 2018 much more than what comes after when he’s maybe a rich man’s Dyson.
I’ve never played in a 20t dynasty. If you don’t mind could you share a little bit about the league’s makeup? How many teams in a given year are playing for the future, today, 3y window etc?
His owner is competitive, but I’m more concerned with the industry-wide consensus that he’s a top 50 asset rather than this specific owner’s valuation.
In the past, we usually start with around 12 contenders, 4 half-built rosters, and 4 nearly all minor leaguer squads. This year, it seems more teams are shifting towards the contention window which will spark some mid-season rebuilds from older rosters.
I haven’t looked too deeply into SB strategy but it seems there are 3 choices: Pay top dollar to acquire an elite SB producer, punt, use it as a tiebreaker in valuation.
If this owner is in the 1st category they probably aren’t trading Dee to anyone in a different category. Based on your outline of his value and where you think he’s going you don’t seem married to the first strategy.
I think of the Dee/Hamilton ADP as products of ‘It only takes one.’ Someone in every league you play in this year is going to put a premium on SB and when only 3 players stole more than 35 bases last year you get wild valuations like Dee > J Ramirez.
SB scarcity is what is driving the higher rankings imo. I flipped he and JDM for Kluber in my long term keeper because I don’t want to pay for steals, have plenty of power, and needed an ace to pair with Kershaw.
I think it is a matter of supply and demand. While nothing is guaranteed as to health for anyone, Gordon allows flexibility to what he is surrounded with on the roster, one does not have to speculate on stolen bases given his water level of about 60.Salazar is a pitcher. He has broken down multiple times. He is in danger of being a middle inning long guy. There is much more risk to Salazar than many of the other top 40/50 starting pitchers. I would have also told you no. Salazar by himself is not a fair offer IMO.
I’m fine with the Salazar aspect, my co-owner and I expected to need to add to that offer. It was only an opening salvo.
Again, I’m more concerned with understanding why Gordon is a top 50 dynasty asset. So far, the top reason I’m hearing is laziness.
For the same reason you know that the Salazar offer was a low offer, your opponent intentionally over valued Gordon to you, so that your counter would have to be higher.
Both of you are bluffing a bit. Your opponent probably thinks Gordon is a top 80 talent in dynasty or something. (note I don’t play that format, so the above # is a guess)
1. The change of using OBP instead of BA lowers his valuation.
2. The auction calculator isn’t fully accurate as it applies positional adjustments wrong. This doesn’t so much immediately impact Gordon but the catchers are too high, which will lower non-catchers.
3. This has to be confirmed but I think the auction calculator uses a SGP constant per category as a denominator, which isn’t league-specific. I prefer st dev (i.e. Z-scores) although stolen bases are not normally distributed.
4. You’re only using Steamer projections in the calculator. Its better to use more than one projection system if possible.
Bottom line – most of this is how the valuation you use values stolen bases as they are distributed differently than other categories. The same concept goes with closers (i.e. saves)
I don’t disagree with these points, I touched upon them myself in the text. I used the calc for a quick and dirty valuation and admitted it was too low. That said, best case scenario has Gordon scraping the top 50. As a 30 year old. If an old guy is maybe just barely a top 50 guy right now, then that’s not a top 50 dynasty asset.
Just to add to this – some of the intangibles (negatives?) of having a Dee Gordon / Billy Hamilton on your roster is that you now have to skew what else becomes valuable to your team as you need power more and SBs less. So if a bargain player that can provide a lot of SBs becomes available to you in a draft or auction, he is of less value because you already have SBs “sewn up”.
only if trading isn’t efficient for an owner.
with the scarcity of SBs in the game right now are you really getting a bargain player that provides lots of SBs? In the game right now if the player is going to provide lots of SBs, they aren’t going to go for a discount. It’s the only takes one discussion from above.
My gut reaction is that Gordon is worth more than Salazar by a decent amount. Part of that is that the perception of Salazar that of a more risky asset, with a wider range of expected production and injury issues. On the other side, I do agree that Gordon is being overvalued in this instance. I could see him turning into Ellsbury circa 2015-2016. As a dynasty asset, I’d agree with your valuation estimate. People get caught up in those SB, huh.
Gotta say its the steady stats and the fact that he had almost twice as many steals as every other second baseman. 5th in Runs, 1st in stolen bases in MLB. Both tops at 2b as well. I get the move to the outfield will hurt his stock a bit. But come on even with only OF eligibility he’s still almost double the field(outside of Billy Hamilton) in stolen bases. He has also been healthy most of his career and has avoided leg injuries. So the end of his steals isn’t in sight yet.
Salazar has had TJ surgery and it appears that he is still dealing with elbow, forearm, and shoulder issues. Betting on the potential is absolutely terrifying to me in light of his DL stints.
This is why I asked for math. The SBaa alone fully offsets the negative HR, RBI, and OBP values with room to spare. But enough room to justify a top 50 ranking for a 30-year-old asset? I need to see some numbers.
Gordon really only has 2 good active comps. Trea Turner and Billy Hamilton. Hamilton isn’t as good with the bat as Gordon. Gordon has been the picture of health other than the thumb in 2016. Turner not so much, granted the wrist was a fluke but he has had leg issues. Hamilton lacks the average to be more than a steals comp here.
117 players hit 20+ hrs, 41 hit 30+ hrs, 5 hit 40+ hrs, 2 hit 50+ hrs last year.
29 players stole 20+, 6 stole 30+, 3 stole 40+, 2 stole 50+ and 1 stole 60+ last year.
Only 1 player that stole 30+ last year had a OBP better than Gordon and that was Altuve.
Gordon was 70th in OBP league wide last year right around where Mookie Betts and Gary Sanchez ended up.
Gordon was 14th in BA last year.
Gordon has had the most singles in 2015 and 2017. 169 and 170.
Gordon has had the most steal attempts in 2014, 2015, and 2017. 84, 78 and 76.
Gordon had the 4th most PAs in 2017 with 695 and 2nd in Abs with 653.
At the end of the day he has a unique skill set that allows a player to focus more on other facets and not sacrifice other stats in the process for steals.
You probably should consider that you are discussing statistics. Statistics can be used to make whatever argument that you wish more or less. You are not going to see anything that you don’t want to see as you can just look at something else. There is not going to be a proof presented by anyone and that’s OK. These is just opinions masked by numbers.
Here are my two cents.
Using z-scores (which you may or may not like), in a 15 team league (the approach would work for 20 team too), the “player pool” of 14 hitters (2 C, 5 OF, CI, MI, U) have a steamer projection “average” of 24 HR/82 R/82 RBI/9 SB/.264 BA. If you take Dee in 1 of those roster spots, the other 13 hitters (to be ‘average’) need to average 25 HR/82 R/86 RBI/6 SB/.262 BA. Based on standard deviations, that means you need 0.2 sd’s above avg for HR and 0.2 for RBI to make up for Dee’s deficit there, but 0.1 sd less than avg for BA and 0.3 less than avg for SB. (for a “net” sd of 0.0). Meaning (from a quick first blush), that he is an “average” hitter in that he doesn’t tilt the roster in either direction. In a hitter pool of 210 hitters, “average” means that is a hitter ranked around #105 assuming a non-skewed distribution (wrong assumption, of course).
Of course, this a BROAD STROKE analysis and, for example, a perfectly “average” hitter doesn’t exist, the output isn’t evenly distributed amongst positions, etc.
But note that this is Dee’s 2018 value (vs 2018 hitters). For dynasty, you need to figure out “production” for the next x years (and what is the RBI/SB landscape over those x years, etc.) But a 30 year old is not getting ‘better’. In other words, BEST case, I think Dee is more appropriately a top 100-150 dynasty asset rather than 50.
But admittedly that does feel a bit weird to my gut….
Thanks. This is the best effort thus far. Unfortunately, your results matched mine.
Well, that must mean that you’re right and the others are wrong. :). Of course, having seen that it’s OBP and not BA, he’s even worse. Let him be overvalued and exploit the inefficiency (if the analysis is correct). In other words, it’s not ‘unfortunate’ at all…
1.) I think you’re grossly underestimating Gordon’s Rs. (A case could be made about switching offenses, but you don’t mention that.)
2.) When you have a player like Gordon – who’s one of the best in two categories while being one of the worst in two categories – some of the value is in the fact that you don’t have to play them all the time. Once you have a surplus of SBs you can platoon him with a more average player that doesn’t hurt you in other categories. (While I doubt the rankings you mention look at him this way, it makes him a fun player to own – so trade hesitation may be more personal than statistical. You’re not going to find many players like Dee Gordon.)
3.) That being said, replacing his 2017 projected stats with his actual stats in my last year’s draft spreadsheet, I have him as the 53rd best hitter. (Hard to compare him to pitchers without know what categories you use.)
1) Take that up with Steamer, I added 10 or 15 R to their projection
2) Agreed, it’s best to deploy these types are frequently used bench players. Especially Hamilton. Most deep dynasty leagues are weekly formats though.
3) I assume you didn’t update everybody else too? Because hitter projections were uniformly low on just about everything last year.
3) When I use last year’s actual stats (in a 12 team – sorry that’s all I had) with everyone’s 2017 stats, Dee was 6th best hitter. I think Gianella’s final valuations had him 3rd. So, there could be a ‘projection’ misvaluation – which as we’ve shown, have him at around 100.
So I think we’re finding the issue here. Did you use SGP?
Basically, I’m discovering that different methodologies return a 2017 hitter value for Gordon between #3 and #33. Number of teams doesn’t really affect value on the upper end much. SGP is popular these days and seems to be offer the highest value for Gordon. I don’t use SGP specifically because it’s popular.
I used z scores. I’m genuinely perplexed by the difference in valuations. Oh – note that I used AVG not OBP (sorry). Will dig further…
Wait, so you don’t use a tool that you find useful because other teams use it? I get the game theory aspect of it, but it seems to me you’re throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
I only have so many units of effort I can afford to spend on this. SGP isn’t worth it if I’m just going to get the same values as everyone else. I also like to avoid anchoring effects until as late into the offseason as possible.
1.) Last year only four players scored more runs than Gordon. Steamer is projecting him to be roughly average in that regards. I’m as guilty of being married to my projections as anyone else, but the 35 R & 15 SB difference between what he actually did in 2017 and what Steamer projects him doing in 2018 is huge.
3.) You’re correct. I assumed everyone else’s projections would kind of “self level” everything, but that’s probably not true.
Not going to provide math, but I don’t think you’re that off base- being an owner of Gordon myself, he’s probably much closer to a top 100 ranking than a top 50 at this point. My team has been quite successful with him on my roster though One thing to keep in mind- I think most of the rankings (Cockroft, Dynasty Guru, Fake Teams, and Pitcher List) were before the trade. I think he holds a considerable amount more value being at the keystone.
Must come from the complete lack of speed available overall and he is placing supreme value on SB? Gordon does give you runs but depending on lg format, he is at best a 2 cat player? His BA/OBP are not plus. Salazar is not far removed from being (a volatile, yes) but big time k sp who has an offense and defense behind him that are very good. So, Wins, Era ~3.60, K’s and the cats help dictate more or less. I have salazar at minimum as a 27yr old 3 cat sp to a 30yr old Gordon as max 2 cat player. When gordon loses 2b eligibility he becomes raja davis no? Except davis actually hit more bombs. I agree with you 100% but then again maybe my views are totally off lol
Several things going on which others have stated:
It’s tough for owners to adjust between OBP and AVG leagues.
Owners still consider positional scarcity to exist. It doesn’t and I believe rankings still take this into account.
Definitely, a win-now player and his value could depend on the team with him. This year, he’s a top 20 to 50 player and some teams only care about this season.
I don’t see a huge issue with the valuation. It really comes down to how the future seasons are valued.
The top ranking I had probably contains some recency bias. I better the trade would have happened last season.
I have him as the 26th overall hitter in AVG league. Considering it’s an OBP league and adding in pitchers, maybe around 75.
As discussed before positional scarcity exists ONLY for catchers in your typical two-catcher league. What is wrong in the Last Player Picked calculation is it is adjusting by the worst catcher (i.e. 30th catcher in a 15 team, 2-catcher league).
That adjustment should be tweaked based on the ~25-28th best catcher not the 30th because in an auction a number of catchers will go for a buck which are worth less than a buck.
THAT is the normalization that should be done. Its an approximation yes but a better one than what is currently done.
Should starting pitchers and all other positions also get adjusted because some always go who are worth less than a dollar?
No. If you notice the adjustment on all other positions are basically within a dollar, so there’s really no need to adjust EXCEPT ONLY for catcher.
Its kinda like saying every non-catcher should get adjusted X, but catchers get adjusted Y. Instead, just adjust catchers Y-X and you’re done. Algebra.
BUT my argument is that “Y-X” adjustment is not based on the worst catcher. You can get a bunch of catchers at a buck the adjustment doesn’t have to be on the worst one.
First, for current-year valuation, there are two things that steamer significantly undersells for Gordon, so that could be part of the disconnect here. I’m comfortable pushing his BABIP up to .340 (.345 career, .327 projected by steamer) which nudges his R/RBI up a bit and gives him a less terrible .325 OBP (adjustments calculated here https://www.getbigboard.com/slashline-tool/). Then there’s the SB, where he has averaged 58 SB per 650 PA over the last 4 years, and steamer only projects 45. Pumping him up to 55 SB seems reasonable. In a 20-team, OBP league, this pushes him up to the ~60th best player in my z-scores-based board for ’18, and moves up or down from there based on your value splits between pitchers and hitters.
Now, as for the aging factor… Using my approach outlined here (https://www.fangraphs.com/community/on-the-use-of-aging-curves-for-fantasy-baseball/) back in 2016, I can run z-score values with aging curve adjustments. YMMV for dynasty in terms of how to weight the years, in this case I’ll increase the weighting for earlier years (years 1/2/3/4/5 weighted as 30%/25/20/15/10). This puts Dee at… 90th.
I think that is the optimistic view on Dee’s aging. It assumes his playing time situation remains the same over the next 5 yrs, and as you’ve pointed out here in your post, for speedy slappy hitters, they can find themselves on the bench quickly when the speed-induced high BABIP collapses, since there is no contact quality to fall back on. I would say that, at BEST, he is a top 100 dynasty asset based on realistic projections/aging curves.
(My ’18 projection for Gordon: 650 PA/5 HR/85 R/50 RBI/55 SB/.325 OBP)
For the first time in his career, he’s not hitting in front of the pitcher. Marlins pitchers last year combined for 25 (H+BB-HR), whereas Gamel and Haniger (likely #9 hitters) project for a clean 175 apiece.
With that said… ya, the top 50 tag in previous years bewildered me too…
I think it all comes down to the valuation of SBs. I have always been trying to find a way to mitigate consolidated stats (such as SBs, and to an extent, SV and QS). If any of the rankings have positional adjustments, the fact that 2B is becoming a bit of a power position (Cano, Murphy, Altuve, Ramirez), his SB count might be even further inflating his overall value. How does this whole scenario play out if you replace Dee Gordon with Billy Hamilton? Similar story (in terms of analysis and outcome)?
Brad,
I think you hit the nail on the head in one of your comments when you mentioned the aging curve. It seems like most people have him ranked somewhere around #50 for this year and using his SGP rankings I would agree with that valuation. The question really becomes about how you value his next few years.
In dynasty Gordon is a depreciating asset. Sure his speed scores and sprint speed still look fantastic but he will be 30 in this upcoming season. Maintaining 2B while gaining OF eligibility only helps him for 2018 and I don’t see much of decline in steals.
However, as you mentioned, the 2B eligibility likely goes away for 2019 & beyond and it’s reasonable to expect declining speed (maybe rapidly so) and therefore lower SB, BABIP, and BA due to a decrease in IFH%. His value is liable to drop off a cliff come 2019 or 2020. If he is something around .265 with 30 to 35 steals and no power or RBI, he’s Jarrod Dyson.
So I guess a top 50 dynasty asset means one season of top 30-35 followed by 4th or 5th OF / bench bat?
I certainly didn’t value him that much. I had him for $7 in Ottoneu and traded him straight up for a $4 Willie Calhoun.
Well, if you are playing FGpts, that effectively annihilates his value. He’s a $1 2B in that format.
This may not be the case here (some other valuation system may be in play), but if your league mate is using PVM, that might account for the discrepancy. I’ve noted in the past that PVM tends to weigh SB and AVG/OBP more heavily than other systems—two of the categories where Gordon excels.
I don’t think he’s a top 50 dynasty player, especially in an OBP league. But it only needs one player per draft to value steals differently to you or me and reach for him at #50 instead of #100 for him to end up there.
But the maths isn’t too hard to do to make him into a top 40 player for this year. Razzball’s player rater has him in the top 20, even the top 15 for 2017 value, depending on the settings you pick. And he’s consistently got ~60 SB per 650 PA his entire career, 56 per 650 last year was his lowest ever, so steamer’s 45 feels low, too.
Bump the SB up to 55, and using the 20 team auction value calculations you linked, which are adding ~$1 per 3 SB, and give him the OF adjustment (higher on your table) instead of 2B, and his value jumps from $14 to a tick over $20.
Those values say 3 SB = 6-7 R = 6-8 RBI = 3 HR = 9-10 points of OBP, roughly. If you use values that say SB are a little more valuable than HR, which is a perfectly reasonable option, then Gordon jumps up further still. And also a bit further using AVG rather than OBP, which is what I tend to assume default rankings are doing.
So I can certainly see how someone could put him inside the top 40 for 2018. I just wouldn’t do it myself.
Even simply taking the calculator you linked, and looking purely at stats, ignoring positional adjustments:
The one you linked with OBP has him as the 71st batter.
If you change nothing except remove OBP and include AVG, he jumps to 34th, between Braun & Ozuna, and that’s with his steamer projection.
Mentally add $4 for 10 SB and 10 R because steamer looks low, and now he’s the 18th ranked batter using AVG, between Votto and Jose Ramirez.
Add the same $4 using OBP, and he’s 38th, between McCutchen & Jose Abreu.
He’s up to 18th on the calculator if you use AVG and give him those extra 10 SB, add the fact some people are more likely to reach for a 2B, and top 50 suddenly seems low when trying to talk him up when selling him to a trade partner.
So part of the valuation is down to how you look at SB, some is probably down to the mental adjustment for the low steamer projection needing to be a bit more (you mention #100 overall to #80, but he jumps from #71 batter to #38 batter by adding 10 SB & 10 R), and a lot of it looks to be down to AVG vs OBP. Because he had the 4th lowest walk rate among qualified batters last year, Gordon has one of the biggest drops in value of any batter when moving to OBP.
The problem is that some people value SB in terms of “league” average stats as opposed to “player” average stats. So for an extremely small example, my 10 team fantrax league team stat averages looked like this: 1202 runs, 355 HR, 1160 RBI, 146 SB. So a guy says well these stats award me the same points in roto so lets divide them into the total average and see how much one of any of them is worth, relative to the others. So you divide them into the sum of all of them and you get (again just using my league) 1 run = 2.38 (whatever you want to call this value). 1 HR = 8.07. 1 RBI = 2.47. 1 SB = 19.58. Meaning just using these numbers, a single SB is 7.9 times MORE valuable than a single RBI.
I’m not saying this is correct thinking, I actually don’t think it is since there are so many more variables. I mostly do fantasy football (I write for The Dynasty Guru), but I am trying to get more into baseball. Of course, this is a very specific example using just one league. Please put me in my place if my “some people” thought process is wrong or the math is wrong or whatever. I’m just thinking this out now because I loved the article. The above is my best shot at explaining the SB love.
No, your math is right (it’s a little more aggressive on SB than I usually see). It’s common to say 1 SB = 2 HR which is pretty close to your 10 team results. The SGP method usually produces a valuation of about $33 for Gordon due to the steals be valued so much more than other categories. However, I contend that this overlooks important roster building effects. I’ve been considering 1 SB ~ 1.5 HR.
Something that can get lost in focusing on individual categories is how they interrelate. An SB is a solo event. A HR is a run, hit/OB, and RBI(s). One dimensional speed guys are kind of high volatility plays. They fuel one category + their lineup role. The power guys fuel four categories. Of course, that’s simplified since other effects tend to help the speed guys provide better BA (but not OBP).
Your evaluation of Dee Gordon would jump up some if you were in a 24-team Strat League. Just sayin’.
I want nothing to do with Danny Salazar in a dynasty. I don’t think he is very near the top 150 for me at least. His lack of health is just short of having some sort of surgery. I have no faith that he will make it through 2018 without issues. He has managed to pitch himself out of the rotation regularly when he is on the field. He is a pricey, high-upside flier. I would love to add hm as a throw-in, but I would never trade anything of value for him – especially in a dynasty.