Me v. the Early NFBC Market: SPs Pt. 2

Last time out, I looked at the pitchers I favored in the early NFBC market and today we’re hitting the other end of the spectrum. There are five Top 50 starters going in early NFBC drafts that I’m at least 10 spots lower on, including one who is nearly 25 spots different. By the way, we will soon have the NFBC’s ADP live on the site, so stay tuned for that!

PITCHERS THE MARKET FAVORS:

Luis Castillo – 36th for me; 26th in NFBC

I consider myself quite a big fan of Castillo (I mean, I do have his Fangraphs player id memorized… that’s a true sign of love, right?!?!), but the market has passed me by, at least in the early drafts. I understand the excitement over his elite stuff and sharp 89-inning debut, but he also rode a .198 AVG and 80% LOB rate to that 3.12 ERA. I regularly hear comps to Luis Severino, but those seem to conveniently forget the busted 2016 for Severino. Of course, there’s nothing that says he has to follow Severino’s path to pan out similarly, especially since Castillo debuted at 24, which is three years older than Severino’s 2015 debut.

Premium velocity, a devastating changeup, and a wipeout slider give Castillo a reliable three-pitch mix that generated strikeouts (27%) and groundballs (59%) – OK, now I’m seeing why he’s being drafted so highly – and should keep the floor relatively stable. However, he wasn’t a huge prospect, skipped Triple-A, and didn’t avoid the 2017 HR craze (1.1 HR/9) yet he’s been thrust into the top 30 off half a season? Orrr… maybe I’m just trying to sandbag his price so I can scoop more shares??? No, no, I’m not doing that, I promise! I love Castillo and I think the SP market really branches in many different ways after the top 30 to where you can easily justify taking bigger risks than we have in past years, but 26th feels a little steep.

Shohei Ohtani – 31st for me; 21st in NFBC

This one is kinda funny to me because I thought I’d be out on Ohtani due to cost, yet I’ve snagged him in a pair of industry mocks already at what I felt was perfectly fair prices and it made me realize that I might need to boost him a little bit in my rankings. Both mocks are going into magazines so I can’t disclose the exact slotting, but both were earlier than the 31st SP off the board. The danger with Ohtani’s price is that I think it can go higher. If he’s looking sharp in Spring Training, I don’t see any reason he won’t consistently go as a top 15 starter and at that level, I just can’t invest.

Gio Gonzalez – 50th for me; 34th in NFBC

And here I thought I was pro-Gio…

Everyone realizes that Gonzalez needed a lot to go right to log a 2.96 ERA in 201 innings last year. He had a tiny BABIP (.258) and sky-high LOB rate (82%) giving him nearly a full run on what his skills would earn with average batted ball and LOB rates. That wasn’t even his career-best ERA, he had a 2.89 ERA in 2012, but that season he allowed half as many homers, had more strikeouts and groundballs, and allowed even fewer hits with a .267 BABIP fueling a .201 AVG. I thought the market would unduly punish him for out-pitching his component numbers, but he’s going ahead of several guys I’d take well ahead of him including but not limited to: David Price, Zack Godley, and Jeff Samardzija.

Maybe it’s the death of the workhorse that has folks flocking to Gonzalez’s bankable innings counts. We’ve seen a sharp drop in the number of 200-inning starters per season as we’re averaging just 30 in the 2010s, down from 41 in the 90s and 00s and 47 back in the 80s. Gonzalez himself only has one 200-inning campaign since 2012 (last year’s 201 IP), but he’s dipped below 175 just once in that span (158.7 in ’14), too. I see value in 180ish innings of a 4.00ish ERA, but I’d rather take a shot on some of the 150ish inning studs staying healthy and dominating than try to get another “everything goes right” season from Gonzalez at age-32.

Rich Hill – 46th for me; 29th in NFBC & Alex Wood – 47th for me; 23rd in NFBC

Speaking of those 150ish inning studs… well, 130ish in Hill’s case…

I paired these two for obvious reasons: injury-riddled lefties on the same team more likely to go 120 than 180 innings that I have slotted right next to each other. These two really highlight my “pitching glob” theory as I think the SP market morphs into a giant glob around SP30 and lasts until about SP60, give or take a few. Again, that doesn’t mean I don’t believe in my rankings, just that I’m not going to vigorously debate someone who would rather flip these two with the injury prone potential studs I have up at 29/30 in Garrett Richards and Lance McCullers.

With Hill, it’s sort of a hot potato thing. I bought in last year and definitely didn’t regret it, but now I don’t want to be caught holding an injury-prone 38-year old when the music stops. Only 10 of his 25 starts went beyond five innings and I worry that number could shrink as the Dodgers are hyperaware of the third time through penalty and the blisters that have plagued Hill over the last couple seasons. With Wood, it could just be a miss on my end. I’ve always been skeptical. I started to turn a bit last year with the velocity bump and command improvement, but he lost all the velo by late summer and gave up 3, 5, and 5 HR in the last three months after allowing two total through June. The bottom line is that it’s more preference than being vehemently against these two, but I just don’t see myself investing much in either.