I feel like the title is pretty straightforward about what you’re going to see in this piece so I’ll spare y’all a lengthy preamble. There are no doubt more than seven viable rookies for the upcoming season, but this is the group I’m currently focused on as potential contributors.

Brent Honeywell TBR (ADP 208) – I respect what the Rays do as far as pitching development goes, but how does Honeywell not even get a September look last year?! The 23-year old right-hander tore through Double- and Triple-A last year with a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 30% K, and 6% BB in 137 innings. An absurd .396 BABIP through his first 14 Triple-A starts inflated the ERA (4.91 in that time), but when it smoothed out to .316 from July on, he put on a show: 1.79 ERA, 27% K-BB in 50 IP. He’s known for a true screwball that is nasty, but novelty of that can overshadow the fact that he has four other offerings in his repertoire and only the curve consistently grades below average among scouts.

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… they need Production. That’s it. If anyone says differently, they’re wrong. I’m tired of hearing owners say they want 35+ home runs from first base. It doesn’t matter where the production comes from. Owners don’t get extra points because the home run was from first base or from their shortstop. Home runs are just one category. Other hits, besides home runs, keep the AVG high and can also generate Runs, RBIs, and stolen base opportunities. Home runs don’t have monopoly on run scoring. Owners need to stop tying home runs (or any other stat) to a position and just pick the most productive players.

Today’s rant is being brought to everyone by my Twitter followers. Yesterday I asked them why Eric Hosmer was getting no love with his low NFBC ADP.

I have Eric Hosmer valued as the 28th or 32nd best hitter (z-score and SGP methods). His NFBC ADP is the 46th hitter off the board. Here are my theories for the difference. Which one do you believe is correct?

I have no idea.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) January 23, 2018

The big winner is power from first base. I’ve never gotten this philosophy of targeting a single stat, like stolen bases or home runs, from a set position. This is especially true early in a draft. In the first 100 picks or so, all the players are average or better. Accumulate as many of these above average talents as possible and then fill in the voids. If the team needs stolen bases, find them now later. Or batting average. Or heaven forbid, home runs.

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It’s been almost exactly two months since I released the early version of the 2018 Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, and I’m back again today to highlight some recent updates ahead of the ottoneu keeper deadline next week. As a reminder, you can always find the latest version of the Surplus Calculator here:

Ottoneu Surplus Calculator 2018

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Absolutely…nothing! For our immediate purposes, that is. The usual off-season lull, further deadened by the glacial free agent market, has left us with nothing current and baseballish to ponder during the long winter, other than stuff that, frankly, doesn’t interest us much. Thus, the WAR wars—in brief, Bill James, the Cornel West of sabermetrics, doesn’t like WAR as an evaluative tool—have left us longing for PEACE! (Though if your curiosity is piqued, here’s a judicious evaluation by our Fangraphs colleague Dave Cameron.)

Likewise the Hall of Fame debate, which has long outlasted our attenuated interest. Your stats tell you that Curt Schilling should be inducted into the Hall of Fame instantly? OK with us. You’d prefer to see him tarred and feathered? Godspeed, say we. Just don’t bother us about it any more. We have less important things to think about.

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It’s been Statcast’s average fly ball distance (Avg FB Dist) week, as I introduced the metric on Monday and then listed and discussed names whose Avg FB Dist marks suggest there is either extra stuff going on or some missing ingredients in their batted balls. Today, let’s dive into fantasy relevant players whose Avg FB Dist marks surged the most versus 2016.

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As #1 overall picks go, Tim Beckham has undoubtedly disappointed. He went #1 overall to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008, but didn’t log his first significant chunk of playing time until 2015 at age-25 and wasn’t exactly inspiring in those 83 games (91 wRC+, 0 WAR). He put up meager numbers throughout his minor league career (.712 OPS in 2889 PA), suffered a torn ACL in 2014, and appeared in just 64 games in 2016 despite spending most of the season on the MLB roster. The word “bust” was starting to be used more and more with Beckham. His early 2017 work did nothing to help that as he posted a 95 wRC+ in 87 games (including a 32% K rate) before the Rays finally decided to trade him to Baltimore in a move that was only really noticed because of his status as a former #1 overall.

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With the addition of NFBC ADP (average draft position) to our projection pages. I went and set our auction calculator settings for an NFBC roto team (14 Hitters, 9 pitchers). I just started going down the hitter rankings to find any major discrepancies. I didn’t make it off the first page. Here is an examination of why the values differ for three players.

Note: I’d prefer to use plate appearances to compare playing time but all the print publications use at-bats so I’m stuck using at-bats as a comparison.

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UPDATE: Thank you to everybody who submitted an application. We have filled all four open spots in the league, raising $1,258 for cancer related charities. We’ve also received an additional $25 from readers. If you would like to join our fundraising drive, read more below.

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Years ago, in response to his own battle with the disease, Dave Cameron founded the Screw Cancer League, an ottoneu FGpts league designed to raise money for cancer-related charities. Per Cameron, the league has successfully raised over $30,000 since its inception in 2012. Cameron (and a few others) have bowed out due to new responsibilities. It’s considered gauche (fireable) for a MLB employee to play fantasy baseball.

Today, I’d like to briefly ask for your help in two ways. With our fearless leader gone, it’s time to form Screw Cancer 2.0.

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Yesterday, I introduced you to Statcast’s batter average fly ball distance (Avg FB Dist), which is one of the new components of my recently updated and improved xHR/FB rate. Today, I’ll continue to swim in the Avg FB Dist pool, this time listing and discussing specific players.

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Last week, I began an examination of stolen base rates. The process is messy with too many variables and nuances to consider. I’m examining the information through several different lenses and seeing what applies. Today, I’m going to look at how success rate plays a role.

Team Level Analysis

As sabermetric principles are being utilized more and more by front offices, they quickly came around to the idea that for stolen bases to be helpful, the success rate needs to be high. In 2000, the success rate was 69% for the entire league and it has increased to 73% last season.

Knowing that each team is made of different players and their individual success rate are a factor, here are the three-year success rate along with total stolen base attempt percentage ((CS+SB)/(1B+HBP+BB)).

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