It’s been almost exactly two months since I released the early version of the 2018 Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, and I’m back again today to highlight some recent updates ahead of the ottoneu keeper deadline next week. As a reminder, you can always find the latest version of the Surplus Calculator here:
As always when I talk about the surplus calculator, I have a few disclaimers to get out of my system:
- The calculator is just a framework, and the utility of that framework is independent of the dollar values used. Basically, the calculator itself doesn’t care what dollar values are used, and the point of the calculator is not just to release dollar value calculations
- Despite #1, the calculator is useless without some kind of values loaded, and it wouldn’t be fair of me to expect everyone to create their own from scratch. So I’ve pre-loaded dollar value calculations for all four ottoneu formats using Steamer 2018, because I’m such a nice guy.
- These early projections are rife with difficulties. Free agent signings and winter trades will change roles and park effects, and reliever values especially are very fragile based on expected roles.
- These dollar values are based on only one projection source, and it’s always been my opinion that multiple projections should be used. ZiPS won’t be released until February, so Steamer is what I use for now.
- #3 and #4 could really be summed up as DON’T TREAT THESE DOLLAR VALUES AS GOSPEL. You’re welcome to create your own values and load them into the calculator, or even make tweaks player by player if you want. I’m happy to help answer questions about how to do that.
Before I mention a few new features of the tool, a couple of quick comments about using the SC as the keeper deadline approaches. First, the inflation numbers the SC shows are going to be high, because the tool assumes every player with a salary greater than the listed dollar value will be cut, but we know that’s not true because of inflation and in the case of young players/prospects. My rule of thumb is to assume that actual keeper inflation will be about 10% less than the SC shows. Second, don’t blindly cut/keep players based on the default dollar values, especially if you haven’t accounted for inflation or league context.
Now, on to the changes:
The dollar values for all four ottoneu formats have been updated using the latest Steamer projections as of 1/23/18. In addition, I made a change to the Surplus Calculator on 12/1/17 so that every SC sheet from that date on has automatic links to the most up to date dollar values. What this means is that if you download a copy of the SC today, and I make changes to the default dollar values next week, your copy of the tool will use the new values automatically.
I’ve also added a new Lookup tab, which allows you to select a player from a dropdown list and see their current owner, salary, average salary, ’18 projected value, and ’15-’17 actual dollar values (FanGraphs points only). See below for an example:
I have a couple more features I’m planning on incorporating once the keeper deadline has passed, so be sure to follow the community thread on the Surplus Calculator or my Twitter (@JustinVibber) for the latest updates. If you have any suggestions for new features or questions, feel free to let me know.
Justin is a life long Cubs fan who has been playing fantasy baseball for 20+ years, and an ottoneu addict since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @justinvibber.