Who Has the Extra Stuff? Additional Batter Avg FB Dist Fun

Yesterday, I introduced you to Statcast’s batter average fly ball distance (Avg FB Dist), which is one of the new components of my recently updated and improved xHR/FB rate. Today, I’ll continue to swim in the Avg FB Dist pool, this time listing and discussing specific players.

In my unveiling of xHR/FB and in yesterday’s post, I stated that Avg FB Dist was meant to add additional information above and beyond Brls/True FB. We now know that in 2017, batters failed to barrel up their fly balls as frequently as they did in 2016, yet HR/FB surged anyway. So, Avg FB Dist acts as a proxy for all the extra stuff that happens to the ball when a batter makes contact, like spin, and ummm, I’m sure other things.

Like I did with Brls/True FB in comparing a player’s rank to his Brls/BBE rank, let’s compare the ranks of Avg FB Dist to Brls/True FB. I’m going to cherry pick just the fantasy relevant names.

First, I’ll start with the batters who rank far better in Avg FB Dist than in Brls/True FB. This isn’t a good or bad thing to be listed here, but simply an observation of who is doing something else we cannot currently quantify, that doesn’t fall into the exit velocity, launch angle, or pull/oppo percentage buckets.

Wowzers, Gerardo Parra tops the list by a hefty margin. While his Brls/True FB was just about a third of the league average, his Avg FB Dist was above it. Two more fellow Rockies appear on this list, Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado. Could you believe that both of them posted Brls/True FB rates barely above the league average? That surprises me. But those Avg FB Dist marks are much more impressive.

There’s an easy explanation for the plethora of Rockies on this list. COORS FIELD! Filtering my population for just Rockies, 12 of the 14 hitters posted a better Avg FB Dist rank than Brls/True FB. And, 11 of the 12 who posted a better rank posted a significantly better one. You may recall from my xHR/FB post my acknowledgement that incorporating park factors in an accurate manner was a near impossible task. This Coors Field issue is why.

Some parks, like Coors, are hitter’s havens because the ball travels further, given all the same variables. Other parks, like AT&T in San Francisco, are a left-handed pull hitter’s (not named Barry Bonds) worst nightmare because of the deep and high right field fence. Avg FB Dist captures the thinner air at Coors effect, but fails to capture any sort of effect at AT&T. So in essence, the Coors hitter friendliness park factor might be double counted in xHR/FB, but xHR/FB correctly reduces left-handed Giants hitters’ marks. Sadly, we can’t get it right in all parks at the same time, and the rank differences for Rockies hitters is a reminder of how much park factors matter.

Sheesh, Rougned Odor is quite the mystery, eh? Perhaps the summer heat in Arlington boosted his Avg FB Dist? Checking in on all the Rangers, it doesn’t seem to be a park factor thing. Or perhaps it is, but ever so slightly.

Nick Delmonico figures to open the season in a starting role somewhere for the White Sox, whether in the outfield or at DH. His Brls/True FB made him appear quite uninteresting, but Avg FB Dist is a bit more intriguing. Carlos Asuaje was another who grabbed a starting role in 2017 and will likely open as the Padres starting second baseman. However, he actually posted below league average marks in both rates, and since he never stole many bases in the minors, is best left for NL-Only leaguers.

Ya know, I have been questioning Yulieski Gurriel’s lack of power, especially considering how he performed back in Cuba. That Brls/True FB rate is ugly, but an average Avg FB Dist is a little less disappointing. Still, I think we all expected more.

Gregory Bird! I have to admit, I’m absolutely shocked to find that his Brls/True FB rate came in below the league average. I’m curious how much higher, if any, it was when he finally returned from injury late in the season, as his power fully recovered after the poor start he endured before landing on the DL. His Avg FB Dist looks solid, but still not exciting enough to think 20%-25% HR/FB rate potential. Of course, Yankees Stadium should help him…a lot.

Now let’s get to the hitters whose Avg FB Dist ranking is far worse than his Brls/True FB. It’s almost as if these guys are missing the intangibles that the above group figured out. Essentially, they aren’t making the most of their barrels and/or non-barreled fly balls. Not good or bad, just what happened.

I feel like the fantasy world has forgotten that Yoan Moncada made his MLB debut in 2017. It’s not even like he disappointed, he actually performed just about exactly how we should have expected given his minor league track record. While I’m concerned about his willingness to run (he attempted just five steals in 231 plate appearances with the White Sox), another question is what on Earth was he doing at the plate to hit such a high rate of barrels, but see the distance on all his fly balls fall short of the league average?! The sample size here is obviously smaller than the guys who played a full season, so this could just be a blip.

Who’s still holding out hope for a major Joc Pederson breakout? I think his lack of steals, a contribution he made in the minors, really capped his fantasy upside. Also, it’s been mostly a BABIP problem. But as a left-handed hitter who frequently pulls grounders into the shift, those BABIP issues are unlikely to disappear.

Yasiel Puig knocks a career high number of homers and posts his highest HR/FB rate since his 2013 debut, and yet there are still questions. A Brls/True FB rate about 10 percentage points higher, yet an Avg FB Dist just under the league average?! What will come in 2018 is anyone’s guess given Puig’s short, but roller coastery career so far.

Arenado is the one big fantasy star in the first group, and now we find our first big fantasy star near the bottom of this group. If Kris Bryant would have even been in your top 100 names of players who posted an Avg FB Dist mark below the league average, I applaud you. His mark is the same as Lonnie Chisenhall! Heck, Chisenhall actually posted a higher Brls/True FB than Bryant. It’s actually quite surprising to find some mediocre ranks in both metrics for Bryant. Sure, it’s only been three seasons, but given his mammoth power displays in the minors, it’s hard to believe that his career high HR/FB rate is just 18.8%.

Addison Russell has the dubious honor of posting the lowest Avg FB Dist of any name in either groups. That’s not good. The Brls/True FB rate is better, obviously as that’s how he ended up in the group to begin with, but it’s still below the league average. Since he doesn’t steal bases and has never posted a batting average above .242, a power breakout is what fantasy owners must be banking on for any sort of profit potential.

I just had to go to 11 in this group in order to include Miguel Cabrera. Everything I’ve looked at suggests that he suffered from some bad luck in 2017 and at least a partial rebound should be expected. I have my reservations though, given his recent health issues, combined with his age. Obviously this goes for literally every player, but his cost is going to be a big determining factor on whether he’ll be worth the risk.