Archive for January, 2018

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 520 – Goodbye to Eno


The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Reminiscing with Eno (0:00)

Strategy Section: Top 100 SPs

Three Eno’s Higher On: (31:00)

  1. Steven Matz
  2. Miles Mikolas
  3. Blake Snell

Three Eno’s Lower On: (46:10)

  1. Madison Bumgarner/Zack Greinke
  2. Chris Archer
  3. Ervin Santana

Make sure you let the closing beat ride out………

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 61 minutes of joyous analysis.

Do Certain Hitter Profiles Increase Year-To-Year Consistency?

As for now, I can’t find any find any predictability to year-to-year hitter consistency once adjusting for plate appearances. For the readers looking for a short article, stop now and move on to Paul’s thesis on starting pitchers. For the stubborn ones, here is what I’ve additionally found out after previously investigating the subject.

On Monday, I could not find any predictability for hitter being consistency. That is not entirely true, I did find that the more plate appearances a hitter accumulates, the more likely they are to reach their true talent level. And if given the opportunity to be closer to their talent level, the more consistent their output.

The one factor I thought might point to year-to-year consistent play in a player’s statistical profile. Are power hitters inconsistent because a few gusts of wind could make a difference in a half-dozen home runs? Do high-walk hitters see their stats as being more consistent since walks stabilize faster? Basically, are certain hitter types more consistent on a yearly basis.

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15 xHR/FB Rate Positive Validations from 2017

As suggested by commenter Konoldo in yesterday’s post discussing 10 2018 HR/FB rate decliners, today I am going to use my new xHR/FB rate to identify surprise 2017 power sources validated by the metric. These are the hitters that either came out of nowhere to post big HR/FB rates, or really upped their games, blowing past even the most optimistic of projections. The knee-jerk reaction is always to expect severe regression, but xHR/FB rates might make you think twice. Perhaps a repeat is more likely than you think for these hitters.

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Keeper Deadline (2018) – All Questions Answered

Welcome to the Ottoneu keeper deadline, 2018 edition.  Today (11:59 PM EDT) is the final day to make that difficult decision about your on-the-bubble players before rosters lock and you set your sights on your upcoming league auction.  Per the rules:

Between the end of the Major League Baseball regular season and the end of arbitration, players may be cut. Between the end of arbitration and the keeper deadline, players may be cut or traded. After the keeper deadline and before the auction draft, teams may not cut or trade any players.

Since the keeper deadline also serves as a de-factor trade deadline, I’ve lined up a few final resources for you below and I’ve asked a handful of Ottoneu experts (Justin, Chad, Brad) to check your questions and comments periodically throughout the day to offer their input on your toughest decisions.  You don’t play this game? You should, but even if your non-Ottoneu keeper deadline is still a few weeks away, feel free to fire your questions below and we’ll do our best to give you feedback (for context, don’t forget to let us know details about your league format).

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2018 Top 100 Starting Pitchers – January

I’ve updated my starting pitcher rankings with commentary on the top 100. Beyond the top 100, I grouped guys into tiers. These are the same tiers I used in the Fantasy Black Book (available now!) and different guys within those tiers are definitely comparable to guys found in the Top 100, but it just becomes difficult to differentiate so the Top 100 really focused on the guys I’m drafting/targeting right now.

If you like somebody in one of the lists better than someone I have in the 80-100 range, that totally makes sense. It’s very fluid there, just as it is in the middle grouping of the pitchers ranks (from around 30-75), which I’ve termed The Glob™.  This ranking outlines how I’m attacking The Glob™.

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 1/30/2018

Here’s today’s chat transcript featuring lots of keeper and Acuna talk.

Brad Johnson: Hey folks

Brad Johnson: Looks like the post didn’t publish as scheduled, so I’ll wait a few minutes for people to join

Daniel Castro Fan Club: We are forever indebted for your words getting Daniel Castro signed yesterday! When Castro mashes, it will be in your honor.

Brad Johnson: That was a really weird thing about a weird thing –…

Brad: You discounting hitters in chase field because of humidor talk?

Brad Johnson: A few like Chris Owings and Brandon Drury, but they were already in the end-game roster patch bin

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10 HR/FB Rate Decliners for 2018

Yesterday, I used my new and improved xHR/FB rate equation to discuss 10 hitters whose xHR/FB rates sat significantly above their actual marks in 2017, suggesting serious 2018 upside. Today, I’ll talk about the other end of the spectrum, hitters whose xHR/FB rates were well below their actual marks, hinting at real downside risk in 2018, assuming the same underlying skills.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 519 – Puig-Friendly League


The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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Is Year-to-Year Hitter Consistency Consistent?

Whether I like it or not, I’ve opened Pandora’s box on year-to-year consistency. The concept states that if a hitter’s overall year-to-year production is consistent, the consistent production will continue. Therefore, good, consistent hitters should be valued more highly since owners know what they’ll be getting on draft day. The problem is that consistent overall production doesn’t lead to future consistency.

The discussion started last week when I wrote that Eric Hosmer and Edwin Encarnacion had similar fantasy values but Hosmer’s NFBC ADP (average draft position) was quite a bit lower. Reader’s stated in the comments they devalued Hosmer because of his year-to-year inconsistency.

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The Weirdest Thing That Is Happening To Me Right Now

UPDATE 4:00pm ET: In the less than one hour since this article was published, Castro re-signed with the Colorado Rockies.

Anybody with information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of the Daniel Castro Fan Club (@DanielCastroFan) should contact the FanGraphs tip line.

Perhaps the weirdest thing happening to me and my fellow FanGraphists is the Daniel Castro Fan Club. Presumably, the club consists of one dude, but I’ll give “them” the benefit of the doubt. “They” contact me at least once a week to promote their pro-Castro agenda. And, for lack of a better topic today, they’re getting their wish. Sort of. Today we’ll discuss bad players who become good. Because Daniel Castro is bad.

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