2018 Top 100 Starting Pitchers – January
I’ve updated my starting pitcher rankings with commentary on the top 100. Beyond the top 100, I grouped guys into tiers. These are the same tiers I used in the Fantasy Black Book (available now!) and different guys within those tiers are definitely comparable to guys found in the Top 100, but it just becomes difficult to differentiate so the Top 100 really focused on the guys I’m drafting/targeting right now.
If you like somebody in one of the lists better than someone I have in the 80-100 range, that totally makes sense. It’s very fluid there, just as it is in the middle grouping of the pitchers ranks (from around 30-75), which I’ve termed The Glob™. This ranking outlines how I’m attacking The Glob™.
2018 Top 100 SPs & Comments
| RK | PLAYER | TM | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | WAS | Brief neck injury couldn’t stop him from a 5th straight 200 IP yr; skills & firm health earn top spot, even at age-33 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | Fewer than 30 starts in 3 of the last 4 seasons bring him back to the pack, but he remains unquestionably elite |
| 3 | Chris Sale | BOS | Ks returned and fueled a brilliant debut w/BOS; 214 IP, 36% K, and 2.45 FIP were all MLB-bests |
| 4 | Corey Kluber | CLE | You probably already forgot he had a 5.06 ERA thru 6 starts; had 1.62 ERA in 166 IP post-back inj. |
| 5 | Noah Syndergaard | NYM | Limited to 30 IP, but finished on the mound with velo & stuff intact; 1st good ST start will boost his 38.2 ADP |
| 6 | Madison Bumgarner | SFG | Like Thor, his ADP will crawl back up toward 2017 level (15 for Bummy, 18 for Thor) once ST kicks off |
| 7 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | B2B duds (15 ER in 8 IP) 2 mos. into season essentially account for the entire 0.50 ERA jump; a true Cy candidate |
| 8 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | Finally reached 200 IP and was the stud we’d been waiting for; must avoid duds for that elusive sub-3.00 season |
| 9 | Justin Verlander | HOU | Maybe leaving the ALC – specifically CLE – will avoid yearly “Is JV done?” worries (10.16 1H ERA v. CLE since ’16) |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | ARI | Rebounded from ugly ’16 w/a great effort; perhaps humidor could bring the HR/9 back under 1.0 (1.2 w/ARI) |
| 11 | Carlos Martinez | STL | Added 3 pts to his K% and 10 IP, but also 0.60 to his ERA because of 12 more HRs allowed; a bona fide fantasy ace |
| 12 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS | Need a 2nd top 25 SP w/Stras due to inj. risk, but fewer workhorses enhances his per-inning excellence. |
| 13 | Yu Darvish | FA | I don’t think he’s fundamentally different after 2 ugly WS starts… assuming he finds a team, of course |
| 14 | Luis Severino | NYY | Elite breakout season was fully supported by skills so even some BABIP/LOB% regression shouldn’t crush him |
| 15 | Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | Curbing his fastball usage spurred summer surge (3.54 ERA in L16 starts) & playoff domination (0.90 ERA in 20 IP) |
| 16 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Added velo, enhanced his changeup, and had a fantastic season; has 16th-best K-BB% since ’15 (min. 300 IP) |
| 17 | Chris Archer | TBR | B2B 4.00-ERA seasons, but 3 straight 200+ IP & 230+ K seasons keep him one of the most desirable arms |
| 18 | Robbie Ray | ARI | Shaved fastball usage (-12%) and breakers shone brightly (.526 OPS, 38% K w/CB & SL); can’t see 85% LOB repeat |
| 19 | Jose Quintana | CHC | Spiked K% w/only minor SwStr boost, but facing SPs will help maintain some gains; underrated fantasy ace |
| 20 | David Price | BOS | Skills and velo as SP and RP were still there amid elbow troubles; fears could be overplayed & create draft value |
| 21 | Gerrit Cole | HOU | Minute Maid more comparable to PNC than you’d think in terms of favoring Ps; ingredients of an ace are here |
| 22 | Dallas Keuchel | HOU | Neck injuries limited IP (146) and now we’re 2 yrs removed from a 200-IP season for the 30-yr old lefty |
| 23 | James Paxton | SEA | As the 200-IP SP becomes increasingly rare, his IP concerns wane some; was a top-20 SP in just 136 IP |
| 24 | Jeff Samardzija | SFG | Can give back some of the 20% K-BB in exchange for fewer HRs (1.3) and get back under 4.00; 5 straight 200-IP yrs |
| 25 | Johnny Cueto | SFG | Blisters tanked season & sent HR sky-high (1.3 was 2x ’16); if healed, he’ll be back; ADP is 5-7 cheaper than ’17 |
| 26 | Jake Arrieta | FA | A high-end hot potato whose outlook is clouded further by remaining un-signed; not a bad gamble after pick 100 |
| 27 | Jon Lester | CHC | CHC BABIPs regressed as expected and he paired it w/velo dip & HR boost en route to +1.89 ERA; still a workhorse |
| 28 | Luis Castillo | CIN | Season looks like Carrasco’s 91-IP as SP in ’14 w/rock solid skills; HRs a little high, but his ceiling is fantasy ace |
| 29 | Garrett Richards | LAA | You won’t have to pay a price commensurate w/this rank, but I’m assessing skills, not purely guessing draft order |
| 30 | Lance McCullers | HOU | G-Rich, McCullers, and even Ohtani who’s next are Paxton starter kits in terms of high end ~160 IP seasons |
| 31 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | I keep getting him in the 90s, but ADP is 73 and will only rise w/promising spring starts; I’ll be priced out in March |
| 32 | Jose Berrios | MIN | Delivered on post-hype status in ’17, but the market is back in (ADP 107); I see another level so I’m still buying |
| 33 | Taijuan Walker | ARI | Did curb ’16 HR rate that was blamed on inj., next step is something like his 3.49 ERA, but with full skills support |
| 34 | Chase Anderson | MIL | I wrote a profile on him when he signed his extension; adding Cain & Yelich marries well w/his FB tendencies |
| 35 | Zack Godley | ARI | Had a top-30 yr in just 155 IP; plan for some regression unlleesss that sweet, sweet humidor comes through… |
| 36 | Michael Fulmer | DET | Returning from the same ulnar nerve surgery deGrom had so monitor his ST work, but he should be fine |
| 37 | Jon Gray | COL | A 4.32 career road ERA has been more of an issue than Coors espec. after a skills-supported 3.13 home ERA in ’17 |
| 38 | Danny Salazar | CLE | Every bit as good as the #28-31 group, but splitting them is “health confidence” ranking & I’m more wary of his |
| 39 | Lance Lynn | FA | Skirted career-worst HRs (1.3) en route to strong season; I see HR dropping more than his 4.82 FIP coming true |
| 40 | Michael Wacha | STL | Career-high 6 Shellackings (5+ ER start) left his ERA 0.50 shy of FIP as 15% K-BB was 4-yr best; still just 26 yrs old |
| 41 | Kevin Gausman | BAL | Oh great, he reeled me back in with a 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over his L14 starts w/an 18% K-BB & 91 Ks in 87 IP |
| 42 | Marcus Stroman | TOR | Outran poor IF defense en route to 3.09 ERA despite a 1.31 WHIP; could be tough again w/4 31+ yr old IF’ers |
| 43 | Dylan Bundy | BAL | Fast start lacked skills (12% K-BB), bills came due in middle 1/3rd (11%), SL emergence buoyed last 1/3rd (21%) |
| 44 | Charlie Morton | HOU | A season-altering buy late in drafts (ADP 392) who delivered a 3.62 ERA/1.19 WHIP combo; price still fair at 171 |
| 45 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | Only finished 6 IP in 41% of GS, but the great pen afforded NYY that luxury; has skills for 180 IP gem; buy! |
| 46 | Jameson Taillon | PIT | The fact that he could easily slot ~20 spots higher shows depth of The Glob™; had 19% K-BB in F7 GS after cancer |
| 47 | Trevor Bauer | CLE | Yet another SP who cut FB usage to fuel success: 5.59 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 54% FB in F18; 2.60, 3.63, 42% in L13 |
| 48 | Luke Weaver | STL | I consider myself a big fan, but the market has blown past me (ADP 112); 7+ Ks in 6/10 starts (30% K in 55 IP as SP) |
| 49 | Sonny Gray | NYY | OAK work (3.25 FIP, 16% K-BB, 0.7 HR/9) masked NYY struggles (4.87, 12%, 1.5) despite similar ERA (+0.29 in NYY) |
| 50 | Drew Pomeranz | BOS | While inj. concerns are fair, he is 1 of just 27 SPs w/B2B 170+ IP seasons; 1 of 7 to add a 24% K in each, too |
| 51 | Danny Duffy | KCR | 81% LOB from ’16 sank as expected, but so did the HRs; injuries returned yielding sub-150 IP again (>150 just 1x) |
| 52 | Rich Hill | LAD | In a vacuum, Hill & Wood aren’t unlike the #28-31 group of lower-IP studs, but Hill is the ultimate hot potato at age-39 |
| 53 | Alex Wood | LAD | Saw velo & skills decline over the summer leaving him shy of that group in raw talent; I’ve always been nervous about him even when he’s running well |
| 54 | Kenta Maeda | LAD | Teammates grouped by design as they’re similarly skilled health risks whose ultimate value depends on IP count |
| 55 | Gio Gonzalez | WAS | Obv. not a true talent 2.96 ERA, but he doesn’t need to be w/this rk; can add a run in ERA and still be top 50-60 |
| 56 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | My pessimistic rk in ’17 was right for wrong reasons (IP, not ERA), but 3.88 FIP backs my concerns; I remain leary |
| 57 | Alex Cobb | FA | Never recaptured splitter, resulting in GB% dip; plan for the 17% K we’ve seen since TJ & hope 23% of ’13-14 returns |
| 58 | Blake Snell | TBR | Career 3.83 ERA despite a 1.45 WHIP speaks to quality stuff amid command issues; 3.28 ERA & 24% K in L15 GS |
| 59 | Sean Manaea | OAK | Mostly healthy, but a 3-start run of 17.55 ERA added 0.58 to bottom line (3.79 in other 26 GS); market has cooled |
| 60 | Ervin Santana | MIN | Ran scalding hot in F11 (1.75 ERA, 4.22 FIP), over-corrected in June (6.03, 5.87), then solid in L16 (3.51, 4.17) |
| 61 | J.A. Happ | TOR | Another strong effort (3.53 ERA, 15% K-BB), but inj. caused 4-yr low in IP (145) and age (35) will tamp down cost |
| 62 | Cole Hamels | TEX | Wheels falling off or an off yr tanked by a 2-mo. injury? More the latter IMO & he’s priced to buy at ADP 234 |
| 63 | German Marquez | COL | A 1.7 HR/9 in Coors mitigated 17% K-BB as RHB clubbed fastball (1.016 OPS); room for growth here & v. cheap |
| 64 | Julio Teheran | ATL | Just 1 yr of Suntrust, but LHB utterly obliterated him (1% K-BB); solid streamer w/upside if hm woes are cured |
| 65 | Tanner Roark | WAS | Had 3.90 ERA and 86 Ks in 81 IP in 2H; he’s logged 180+ IP in 3 of the last 4 seasons, too |
| 66 | Jake Faria | TBR | Solid 87-inning debut and doesn’t look at all that different than his teammate coming up next… |
| 67 | Jake Odorizzi | TBR | Too many HR and BB saw his ERA and FIP soar, but closed with a 3.47 ERA in his final 12 starts |
| 68 | Brad Peacock | HOU | No gtd spot, but 3 inj. risks and a 34-yr old in rotation will offer chances to carve out 110-130 IP w/~15 GS (+/- 5) |
| 69 | Dinelson Lamet | SDP | Needs something to get LHB out or volatility will remain; but swing-and-miss & RHB dominance lay a foundation |
| 70 | Patrick Corbin | ARI | Skills returned to ’13 level, but HR & BABIP kept the ERA higher; could be biggest humidor benefactor… if it exists |
| 71 | Rick Porcello | BOS | As hot as he ran in ’16, he was equally as cold in ’17; hard to peg for ’18, but I’d tab him for a low-4.00s ERA |
| 72 | Marco Estrada | TOR | Stress from personal issues kept him from proper sleep; figured it out in late-summer save 3 Shellackings |
| 73 | Joe Musgrove | PIT | New park should cut HRs (1.4 career) and better maximize the 15% K-BB we’ve seen so far; has K% upside, too |
| 74 | Aaron Sanchez | TOR | Blisters & broken fingernail destroyed season (4 DL stints); only had 12% K-BB in ’16 breakout despite great stuff |
| 75 | Mike Clevinger | CLE | Will struggle to consistently go 6+ IP if 12% BB doesn’t improve; cheap as he currently doesn’t have gtd spot |
| 76 | Tyler Chatwood | CHC | I see something like 140 innings of a 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 22% K rate. Useful, but not transformative |
| 77 | Chad Kuhl | PIT | Flamethrower rebounded w/3.38 ERA in L16, tallying 83 Ks in 88 IP; needs changeup refinement to truly breakout |
| 78 | Zach Davies | MIL | Wasn’t just a product of 17 Ws, but they masked an ugly 8% K-BB; still just 25 y/o & capable of another high-3.00s yr |
| 79 | Miles Mikolas | STL | Put up 19% K-BB in 3 NPB yrs w/’17 being the best (22%, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP); Colby Lewis comps make sense |
| 80 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | Enough potential to facilitate a bigger jump, but the walk rate keeps expectations in check; fanned 24% in 100 IP |
| 81 | Chad Green | NYY | Being stretched out as SP, but he’s a viable pick even if he doesn’t start as he can deliver 90+ IP of quality work |
| 82 | Jhoulys Chacin | MIL | Skills suggest the nearly 5 runs of difference (1.79 home, 6.53 road) is a mirage; he’s a true talent 4.00 ERA guy |
| 83 | Luiz Gohara | ATL | Probably deserved a better fate against righties as a .418 BABIP overshadowed his 19% K-BB in 102 PA |
| 84 | Brent Honeywell | TBR | Tore through Double- and Triple-A last year with a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 30% K, and 6% BB in 137 innings |
| 85 | Jack Flaherty | STL | Quality heat (93 mph) misses bats and induces GBs while CB & SL do most of the work generating his strikeouts |
| 86 | Lucas Giolito | CWS | Found some confidence in AAA and carried into a solid MLB sample, though that 1.6 HR/9 needs some work |
| 87 | Alex Reyes | STL | Returning from TJ and will start in the bullpen after returning in May; keep expectations in check for the 23 y/o |
| 88 | Mike Montgomery | CHC | Might be stuck in the swingman role again (14 GS, 30 RP app.), but he can make an impact w/120-140 IP |
| 89 | Steven Matz | NYM | Has some swing-and-miss stuff & good control, but he’s now 27 with just 235 MLB innings under his belt |
| 90 | Reynaldo Lopez | CWS | Big velo, two reliable secondaries, no platoon split, and pedigree could foster a breakout for this 24 yr old RHP |
| 91 | Dan Straily | MIA | Cautionary tale re: parks fixing HR issues; stayed at 1.5 from CIN to MIA, though a horrific road rate played a role |
| 92 | Matt Shoemaker | LAA | Forearm strain ate his entire second half, but there’s still nice upside here if he’s healthy coming into ’18 |
| 93 | CC Sabathia | NYY | Crafty southpaw has posted 328.3 IP of 3.81 ERA and 12% K-BB over the last two seasons |
| 94 | Felix Hernandez | SEA | Shoulder bursitis ate up 3 months of his season and a flood of HRs offset his K and BB gains |
| 95 | Trevor Williams | PIT | Quietly had a sharp finish to his season with a 3.49 ERA in his last 98 innings and gets half his gms in PNC Park |
| 96 | Walker Buehler | LAD | Likely opens AAA to tighten up the control & refine changeup; if he gets a shot, he could be a game-changer |
| 97 | Jharel Cotton | OAK | Unquestionably rough season, but there’s still an arsenal for success here if he alters his approach |
| 98 | Robert Stephenson | CIN | Rich secondary arsenal (.510 OPS, 38% K rate in 219 PA) generates plenty of whiffs and keeps hope alive |
| 99 | Michael Kopech | CWS | No incentive for the White Sox to rush him & burn svc. time as they’re not slated to contend just yet |
| 100 | Luis Perdomo | SDP | Addition of Freddy Galvis could be huge as he should turn more of that 62% GB rate into outs |
| Nathan Eovaldi | TBR | INJURY RISK | |
| Tyler Skaggs | LAA | INJURY RISK | |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | INJURY RISK | |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | INJURY RISK | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | INJURY RISK | |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | INJURY RISK | |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | INJURY RISK | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | INJURY RISK | |
| Andrew Heaney | LAA | INJURY RISK | |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | INJURY RISK | |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | INJURY RISK | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | INJURY RISK | |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | INJURY RISK | |
| Nathan Karns | KCR | INJURY RISK | |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | INJURY RISK | |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | INJURY RISK | |
| Anibal Sanchez | FA | INJURY RISK | |
| A.J. Puk | OAK | PROSPECT | |
| Tyler Mahle | CIN | PROSPECT | |
| Erick Fedde | WAS | PROSPECT | |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | PROSPECT | |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | PROSPECT | |
| Forrest Whitley | HOU | PROSPECT | |
| Justus Sheffield | NYY | PROSPECT | |
| Chance Adams | NYY | PROSPECT | |
| Mike Soroka | ATL | PROSPECT | |
| Kolby Allard | ATL | PROSPECT | |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | PROSPECT | |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | POST-HYPE | |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | POST-HYPE | |
| Jose De Leon | TBR | POST-HYPE | |
| A.J. Cole | WAS | POST-HYPE | |
| Luke Sims | ATL | POST-HYPE | |
| Daniel Norris | DET | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Jose Urena | MIA | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Jakob Junis | KCR | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Parker Bridwell | LAA | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Chad Bettis | COL | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Matt Moore | SFG | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Martin Perez | TEX | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Adam Conley | MIA | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Matt Boyd | DET | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Brent Suter | MIL | PER INNING | |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | PER INNING | |
| Trevor Cahill | KCR | PER INNING | |
| JC Ramirez | LAA | PER INNING | |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | PER INNING | |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | BORING VET | |
| Mike Leake | SEA | BORING VET | |
| Jason Vargas | FA | BORING VET | |
| John Lackey | FA | BORING VET | |
| Mike Fiers | DET | BORING VET | |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | BORING VET | |
| Doug Fister | TEX | BORING VET | |
| Andrew Cashner | FA | BORING VET | |
| Jordan Zimmerman | DET | BORING VET | |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | BORING VET | |
| Chris Stratton | SFG | BORING VET | |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | BORING VET | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | FA | BORING VET | |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | RAW SKILLS | |
| Jesse Hahn | KCR | RAW SKILLS | |
| Francis Martes | HOU | RAW SKILLS | |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | RAW SKILLS | |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | RAW SKILLS | |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | RAW SKILLS | |
| Dillon Peters | MIA | RAW SKILLS | |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | RAW SKILLS | |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | RAW SKILLS | |
| Sal Romano | CIN | RAW SKILLS | |
| Buck Farmer | DET | RAW SKILLS | |
| Brett Anderson | FA | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Scott Feldman | FA | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Michael Pineda | MIN | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Drew Smyly | CHC | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Steven Wright | BOS | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Julio Urias | LAD | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY |
Love the commentary, too. Thanks Paul.
Thanks! I thought a quick hitter would be easier than it was, but I ended up digging in to find each tidbit so these were delayed a bit
Thank you, Paul. This is simply fantastic.
And not a wasted effort. I enjoyed them all.
thanks–great list! do you think chad green gets the nod over montgomery as the yankees’ 5th starter, coming out of camp?
I don’t know how serious they are about truly starting Green. I feel like they might stretching him out and giving a go to start only to make him the ultimate swingman with multi-IP relief outings and a handful of starts. Love the talent of both.
Good Stuff! Is Collin McHugh unlisted because he’s expected to be in the bullpen or traded to parts unknown? Or is he just no longer good enough to be near the top 100 and get a CAPS LOCKED LABEL?
The former right now, but he should’ve been on the PER INNING still bc he could jump into the rotation for a few starts here and there or get dealt somewhere and start. It was a miss. I’ll make sure he’s on the Feb update.
Hendricks 3.88 FIP was good for 33rd among SP with 130+ IP and would’ve been 21st among qualified SP, what about that justifies 56 ranking? And Stras gets a downgrade for injuries but Thor stays ahead of guys like Degrom and Madbum who have been models of consistency? Seems pretty suspect
I just don’t trust Hendricks and his 85 MPH fastball.
Stras wasn’t downgraded, that’s where he ranks for me. Doesn’t mean no one above him has inj. risk.
Not sure how personal opinions are “suspect”, lol
Syndergaard if healthy is possibly the best pitcher. I agree with your “suspect” opinions. Also thanks for the notes, very helpful to get a glimpse of your thinking
That’s my thinking. It’s not that Stras couldn’t put up a top SP season, but I have Thor’s likelihood of such being higher even off his lost season last year.
I’ve been a Stras backer from Day 1, but we can’t ignore that he always has a DL stint or 2 while Thor hasn’t been a guaranteed injury guy year-in, year-out as of now.
I’m a little surprised at the Stroman ranking here. I know his K-rate isn’t elite, but he’s been one of the most consistent SPs in MLB over the last season and a half with 9 straight months with an ERA of 3.71 or better and the peripherals to back it up. I feel like the ~10 guys ranked ahead of him (maybe with the exception of Godley) offer similar upside with a lot more risk.
I felt like I kinda explained it with the comment re: his IF defense. His FIP with a 1.30ish WHIP is the expectation. Dig the IP, but hate the K%. I like him a lot as a pitcher, but I’d rather chase some upside and I don’t think he’s without risk given that old IF defense.
Makes sense, thanks Paul! I love the analysis.
He’s a really good pitcher. Definitely top 30… in the real world. For some reason, his skill set just doesn’t translate to fantasy value. The WHIP and Ks almost hurt while the win total and ERA are merely fine.
Paul might have a different take.
Tanaka at 15? *pondering emoji face*
Fantastic finish and curbed the fastball usage. I’m still buying!
Love the comments – really helpful for context.
Thanks so much!
I love the simple commentary on the back end of the list!
Q: With Paxton/Keuchel/Berrios/Fulmer in a dynasty, should I be looking to spend my FA budget on an expensive SP (Scherzer/Stras/Darvish/Ohtani are available) or is my current rotation good enough to buy more cheap SP and use that $$ on hitting (Stanton is available)?
I think adding a Scherzer/Stras/Darvish is the right move here with the volatility of your high upside staff.
Thanks Paul!
I know you’ll be talking about this all year but which player right now are you highest on compared to consensus/ADP?
These guys as of 12/20 – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitchers-me-v-the-early-nfbc-market/
My assumptions for a couple random guys not mentioned:
– Zack Wheeler – INjury Risk
– Josh Tomlin – Boring Vet / Punching Bag
BTW, I really wish I could have my team from last year back as it was fronted by Kluber, Carrasco, Tanaka and Ray.
Definitely. Wheeler was a miss, but Tomlin just doesn’t interest me at all. I’ll get Wheeler on the Feb update.
Agree on Tomlin in general, however those in K/BB leagues need to at least keep him on the radar. He walks so few guys that he is actually dominant in K/BB. He led all starters (100 IP) in K/BB last year at 7.79. No fluke either as he was 3rd in 2016 and also put up huge K/BB numbers in 2014 and 2015 in fewer innings.
I’ve thought for a while now that Tomlin seems like a guy who took the advice of “Just throw strikes” a little too literally. No K’s, no BB’s, tons of HR.
Doesn’t help Tomlin that he uses his cutter (a really bad pitch) too much, while not using his best pitch (the curve) nearly enough.
I looked a couple times so I apologize if I missed him but where would you rank Mike Minor
Injury risk. Not terribly interested in drafting him rn until I see what he looks like as SP after that great RP season
Love the format of this list Paul. Also love that you’ve ranked Luis Castillo as a serious keeper asset.
Thanks, I love Castillo as we’ve discussed on the pod, but I’m not even highest in the market. Seeing the firm skills support and VERY good arsenal does make me confident even w/the small sample
I know this is very deep league stuff, but what are your thoughts on Brock Stewart? His minor league numbers continue to be excellent with great K’s and great control. But he’s obviously having trouble getting that to translate to the majors.
His numbers last year were fine at best, and most of that was buoyed by his relief games.
Is he destined to be a AAAA pitcher? Or will he move to relief a la Chad Green?
I keep thinking he’ll get chances with the way the Dodgers use the 10-day DL. But it’s not clicking for some reason. And now I’m worried about him getting passed by Buehler.
Eno has discussed Stewart on the pod and gotten me to pay attention. I do think the logjam in LA will keep him from really being a fantasy impact barring some major injuries to others. The Chad Green comp is interesting, too. If I thought he could get 80-100 swingman innings, I’d take him in NL Only for sure
i feel like with mccarthy and kazmir out of the way (not that kazmir was ever really in the way last year, but, you know what i mean) brock is a little bit closer to the top of the LA rotation merry-go-round this year, although now you do also have buehler and the return of urias in the rearview.
i still want to see what happens if he’s finally given a little run to find his footing as a starter in the majors instead of just yo-yoing around as a spot starter / has-options staff filler long guy the way he’s been doing.
in one outing last year he broke off a couple of really mean sliders that i’d never seen from him before. if he can figure out how to do that consistently we could have some excitement
Nice rankings. 24th on Jeff Samardzija might apply in a league that uses fip instead of era.
I’m betting on the base skills, HR regression, and that park (plus an improved SF team). I understand the aversion some have and you certainly don’t have to pay SP24 cost, but I’m buying this year
The pitcher list is back! Paul, you rock. Gonna blow up your next twitch chat with follow-ups
I look forward to it!
Also I fall much more in line with the ADP for Strasburg (28) 6th pitcher than your rankings. I guess we will see. I don’t see how people worry about him, but don’t care about Bumgarner as an injury risk. Bumgarner was hurt last year, was literally the opposite of Strasburg as he was not handled with care at all, and whose stuff has played down quite a bit year for year. Strasburg literally looks the best he ever has.
That’s fair, but it’s also not just a ranking based on ’17. The 3-yr comp shows ’em closer – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,3,13,4,5,6,42,-1,120,121,113,217,-1,39,41,43,44,48,40,51,105,223,-1,45&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=5524,10131 — I’ll dive deeper on Stras and see maybe I’m a little short on his ranking. Like I said in another comment, I really like him, but maybe I’m selling him short a couple slots.
Love the rankings, and the faith in my boy Verlander. Just a quick edit, Alex Wood is 28, not 38.
I see how that’s confusing since he is 28, but it’s a carryover comment on Hill. In my Excel sheet, I reached the end of the line and carried it over to Wood’s comment since I group the two together but given the formatting on the site I can actually fit the age-38 part in Hill’s box so let me fix that!
I just don’t get the Clevinger rating……
Think the B.B./9 fear is overblown at this point.
Ps:
I loved the analysis overall
To clarify,
I think his first strike improvements in the second half allowed him to attack hitters and reduce HR/9. His stuff after setting the table with a first K was nasty
as always Paul, excellent work, loved your discussion on XM yesterday with Liss and Jeff also!!!
Nice list, Paul. Thanks. Got any sleepers for people playing in AL-only keeper formats? Already keeping Stroman, Bauer and Jordan Montgomery.
Love this article. Great stuff. I have also been thinking David Price is a buying opportunity but was assuming he’d be 20 slots lower. Are you thinking he’s no more an injury risk than any other SP?
He goes around SP30-35 in most drafts so you don’t have to draft where I have him slotted, but I think the base skills and track record upside trump the injury risk given how many carry injury risk within his tier.
This is fantastic and the day before the Ottoneu deadline, your timing is impeccable. Thanks!
Thank you, young buck! How close was Kyle Freeland to making the top 100?
You make me feel better about drafting Walker. You are def the high man on him.
http://www.picslyrics.net/images/43488-britney-spears-i-still-believe.jpg
This is really well done, thanks Paul.
I also think it’s cool you like Kuhl, cuz I like Kuhl a little bit too.
Lovelovelove this format and commentary. Thanks, Paul!
Any thoughts about Stephen Gonsalves?
Love it. Great work Paul.
Great stuff! My opinion differs a little on Carlos Martinez. I take a lot of guys listed after. His 3.6era actually out pitched his fip by a decent amount. Don’t love the HR spike with the not so great control. The peripherals of the 6 guys listed after excite me a lot more.
Love the Richards/Berrios ranks. You can find some serious draft day bargains here by comparing some of these ranks to ADPs.
Really helping me shape my keepers for next year. FA pick ups on Wood and Castillo look to round out my 2018!
Thoughts on Mike Minor as a starter? Seems like a sleeper, but it’s hard to see him throwing more than 120 innings.
Can’t find Adam Wainwright anywhere. But even without him the Cards have 6 starters in the top 100. Should they go to a 6 man rotation?
this is good. couple comments about guys way at the bottom, since that’s where i live:
how is chris stratton a “boring vet”? seems like he’s more either a PROSPECT or LOTTERY TICKET
i still like steven wright a lot. he had knee surgery, presumably it’s fixed (the knee). not sure why a knuckleballer who had a leg injury should go straight into the DND HEALTH pile-o-ligaments
Yes, Stratton is miscategorized, thank you for that!
I had it in my mind that Wright was slated to miss time coming into the season plus a potential suspension. He could still get in trouble for the assault situation, but he is slated to be healthy so he’s just a normal injury risk.
I assume it’s mostly due to the injury risk, but I’d be surprised if a large majority wouldn’t take Strasburg over Martinez. Do you think you’re an outlier here?
Ya, definitely. Stras’s ADP is 30 picks higher than C-Mart. 8-14 is essentially a tier so I can see the order mixed easily. I just think Stras is basically a guarantee for time missed at this point.
Thanks for the detailed commentary!
I was sad to see you down on Alex Wood.
I have Wood as an NL Only 10 team league keeper option for $4. I also have $13 Robbie Ray and $18 Aaron Nola. The top SP usually go in the low $30s.
My plan was to keep Wood and Ray and cut Nola, but seeing this I’m wondering if folks here would disagree?
Is keeping all 3 viable? I like the prices on all of ’em. The beauty with Wood is that he’s usually inexpensive so while I don’t loooove him, he’s affordable. I just worry about how much he regressed in the 2H last yr.
I have $4 Manuel Margot, $4 Arodys Vizcaiono, $4 Austin Barnes, $4 Austin Hedges (2 C league), $16 Trevor Story, $17 Marcel Ozuna, and $26 Freddie Freeman as well on my list of options.
Can keep 5 total between the SP listed before and these others and had planned to stick to 2 SP max. Think I should consider keeping all 3?
Cut Wood!
If you aren’t keeping all three, try to trade one of your affordable top SP for either an upgrade or cheaper option somewhere else.
I would love a podcast where you and Nick Pollack go head to head over pitcher’s rankings.
Thanks for the great list!
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Nice work. If I can push back on one thing, it’s using FIP to call regression on guys like Odorizzi and Hendricks. In both cases, we have enough track record to see proven BABIP suppression. I think even Steamer isn’t fully correcting for the lower BABIP we should expect on them.
Any reason Kopech, Flaherty make it out of the ‘Prospect’ tier and into the rankings over the other potential callups? Are they just the most likely ones to see MLB time?
If I could squeeze a few guys into the top-100 that you didn’t have, it’d definitely be Jimmy Nelson, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Skaggs. I guess you might adjust them as we get closer to spring and find out if they’re healthy?
Thanks! Not sure I follow the thread w/Odorizzi as his BABIP was out of nowhere and it’s low more bc HRs aren’t accounted in it as opposed to any sort of skill he displayed. FB pitchers will have lower BABIPs, but not .227. His best bet is cutting HRs at this point. I wasn’t really calling for FIP-based regression as his FIP was awful.
And we’ve seen Hendricks have a high-3.00s ERA. It’s less about his BABIP and more about his LOB%. He’s at the mercy of his defense and his margin for error is tiny with an 85 mph fastball. That’s a time-bomb I’m just not interested in.
Re: the prospects, ya the ones listed are just those I prefer and think will have a higher impact. Love Honeywell this year.
Nelson won’t be healthy in Spring. He’s slated to be out until June. With a timetable ALREADY that long, I don’t see any real reason to draft him in redraft leagues except maybe late (30s or later) in a Draft & Hold. Love what he did last year, but I’m not messing with him in ’18.
I also like Rodon but he, too, is out to start the season and has shown no ability to stay healthy. Hard to advocate drafting him in mixers at this point. His situation could improve some in Spring, but still not a 10 or 12 team consideration for me right now.
Skaggs I could see being top 100. Just had to cut the list somewhere and he missed out. I see some reason for intrigue for sure.
Thanks Paul, I’m on board with what you’re saying about Odorizzi/Hendricks, though I still say the projection systems don’t give them a fair shake (in Odorizzi’s case… yeah, the HR-rate is such a problem. Dude just loves the long ball I guess?).
Lots of leagues pushing up the # of DL slots these days, I think the ADP on all those injury guys is going to be surprisingly high! Or at least, interesting to watch. In particular, really liked what Nelson was doing last year before his HOTBLAN (Hurt On The Bases Like a Nincompoop) and could see parking him in a DL slot rather than taking some of the other junk pitchers that will go in the later rounds.
I don’t know if you could already label Chris Stratton as a boring vet.
Yeah that was an accident! I’ll correct it in Feb update for sure. My bad on that
Hendricks at 56 is wild
Great stuff Paul! I really like that you left the 100+ plus guys on there and the categories they fall into. Those guys are great for watch lists.
What about Clayton Richard, Kyle Gibson, or Seth Lugo? All had strong second halves, particularly the first two.
Lugo has some intrigue, I’ll add him to the Feb list, but the other two are worthless for fantasy. Gibson beat up a super-easy schedule in the 2H and *still* had a 5.07 season ERA while Richard had a 4.95 ERA/1.56 WHIP combo in the 2H. I just can’t see drafting either in any format.
Good point on Gibson’s easy second-half schedule, you don’t think Richard can be a Keuchel-lite?
I kinda think at age-34, he is who he is.
I get that he’s no longer a Top 100 SP, but shouldn’t Wainwright be listed somewhere such as “lottery ticket” or “boring vet”?
Enjoyed this – one question though, and forgive me if it’s been spelled out somewhere. Are your rankings based on a certain type of league and/or scoring system? The rankings would seemingly be different if it’s a Roto vs FG Points league.
5×5 standard. I’ll make sure it’s on other rankings going forward instead of assuming
This is fantastic. I’m bookmarking it so I can come back and reference it during my draft over and over and annihilate my competition. Thanks, Brotato Chip!