2018 Top 100 Starting Pitchers – January
by Paul Sporer
January 30, 2018
I’ve updated my starting pitcher rankings with commentary on the top 100. Beyond the top 100, I grouped guys into tiers. These are the same tiers I used in the Fantasy Black Book (available now!) and different guys within those tiers are definitely comparable to guys found in the Top 100, but it just becomes difficult to differentiate so the Top 100 really focused on the guys I’m drafting/targeting right now.
If you like somebody in one of the lists better than someone I have in the 80-100 range, that totally makes sense. It’s very fluid there, just as it is in the middle grouping of the pitchers ranks (from around 30-75), which I’ve termed The Glob™. This ranking outlines how I’m attacking The Glob™.
2018 Top 100 SPs & Comments
| RK | PLAYER | TM | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | WAS | Brief neck injury couldn’t stop him from a 5th straight 200 IP yr; skills & firm health earn top spot, even at age-33 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | Fewer than 30 starts in 3 of the last 4 seasons bring him back to the pack, but he remains unquestionably elite |
| 3 | Chris Sale | BOS | Ks returned and fueled a brilliant debut w/BOS; 214 IP, 36% K, and 2.45 FIP were all MLB-bests |
| 4 | Corey Kluber | CLE | You probably already forgot he had a 5.06 ERA thru 6 starts; had 1.62 ERA in 166 IP post-back inj. |
| 5 | Noah Syndergaard | NYM | Limited to 30 IP, but finished on the mound with velo & stuff intact; 1st good ST start will boost his 38.2 ADP |
| 6 | Madison Bumgarner | SFG | Like Thor, his ADP will crawl back up toward 2017 level (15 for Bummy, 18 for Thor) once ST kicks off |
| 7 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | B2B duds (15 ER in 8 IP) 2 mos. into season essentially account for the entire 0.50 ERA jump; a true Cy candidate |
| 8 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | Finally reached 200 IP and was the stud we’d been waiting for; must avoid duds for that elusive sub-3.00 season |
| 9 | Justin Verlander | HOU | Maybe leaving the ALC – specifically CLE – will avoid yearly “Is JV done?” worries (10.16 1H ERA v. CLE since ’16) |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | ARI | Rebounded from ugly ’16 w/a great effort; perhaps humidor could bring the HR/9 back under 1.0 (1.2 w/ARI) |
| 11 | Carlos Martinez | STL | Added 3 pts to his K% and 10 IP, but also 0.60 to his ERA because of 12 more HRs allowed; a bona fide fantasy ace |
| 12 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS | Need a 2nd top 25 SP w/Stras due to inj. risk, but fewer workhorses enhances his per-inning excellence. |
| 13 | Yu Darvish | FA | I don’t think he’s fundamentally different after 2 ugly WS starts… assuming he finds a team, of course |
| 14 | Luis Severino | NYY | Elite breakout season was fully supported by skills so even some BABIP/LOB% regression shouldn’t crush him |
| 15 | Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | Curbing his fastball usage spurred summer surge (3.54 ERA in L16 starts) & playoff domination (0.90 ERA in 20 IP) |
| 16 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Added velo, enhanced his changeup, and had a fantastic season; has 16th-best K-BB% since ’15 (min. 300 IP) |
| 17 | Chris Archer | TBR | B2B 4.00-ERA seasons, but 3 straight 200+ IP & 230+ K seasons keep him one of the most desirable arms |
| 18 | Robbie Ray | ARI | Shaved fastball usage (-12%) and breakers shone brightly (.526 OPS, 38% K w/CB & SL); can’t see 85% LOB repeat |
| 19 | Jose Quintana | CHC | Spiked K% w/only minor SwStr boost, but facing SPs will help maintain some gains; underrated fantasy ace |
| 20 | David Price | BOS | Skills and velo as SP and RP were still there amid elbow troubles; fears could be overplayed & create draft value |
| 21 | Gerrit Cole | HOU | Minute Maid more comparable to PNC than you’d think in terms of favoring Ps; ingredients of an ace are here |
| 22 | Dallas Keuchel | HOU | Neck injuries limited IP (146) and now we’re 2 yrs removed from a 200-IP season for the 30-yr old lefty |
| 23 | James Paxton | SEA | As the 200-IP SP becomes increasingly rare, his IP concerns wane some; was a top-20 SP in just 136 IP |
| 24 | Jeff Samardzija | SFG | Can give back some of the 20% K-BB in exchange for fewer HRs (1.3) and get back under 4.00; 5 straight 200-IP yrs |
| 25 | Johnny Cueto | SFG | Blisters tanked season & sent HR sky-high (1.3 was 2x ’16); if healed, he’ll be back; ADP is 5-7 cheaper than ’17 |
| 26 | Jake Arrieta | FA | A high-end hot potato whose outlook is clouded further by remaining un-signed; not a bad gamble after pick 100 |
| 27 | Jon Lester | CHC | CHC BABIPs regressed as expected and he paired it w/velo dip & HR boost en route to +1.89 ERA; still a workhorse |
| 28 | Luis Castillo | CIN | Season looks like Carrasco’s 91-IP as SP in ’14 w/rock solid skills; HRs a little high, but his ceiling is fantasy ace |
| 29 | Garrett Richards | LAA | You won’t have to pay a price commensurate w/this rank, but I’m assessing skills, not purely guessing draft order |
| 30 | Lance McCullers | HOU | G-Rich, McCullers, and even Ohtani who’s next are Paxton starter kits in terms of high end ~160 IP seasons |
| 31 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | I keep getting him in the 90s, but ADP is 73 and will only rise w/promising spring starts; I’ll be priced out in March |
| 32 | Jose Berrios | MIN | Delivered on post-hype status in ’17, but the market is back in (ADP 107); I see another level so I’m still buying |
| 33 | Taijuan Walker | ARI | Did curb ’16 HR rate that was blamed on inj., next step is something like his 3.49 ERA, but with full skills support |
| 34 | Chase Anderson | MIL | I wrote a profile on him when he signed his extension; adding Cain & Yelich marries well w/his FB tendencies |
| 35 | Zack Godley | ARI | Had a top-30 yr in just 155 IP; plan for some regression unlleesss that sweet, sweet humidor comes through… |
| 36 | Michael Fulmer | DET | Returning from the same ulnar nerve surgery deGrom had so monitor his ST work, but he should be fine |
| 37 | Jon Gray | COL | A 4.32 career road ERA has been more of an issue than Coors espec. after a skills-supported 3.13 home ERA in ’17 |
| 38 | Danny Salazar | CLE | Every bit as good as the #28-31 group, but splitting them is “health confidence” ranking & I’m more wary of his |
| 39 | Lance Lynn | FA | Skirted career-worst HRs (1.3) en route to strong season; I see HR dropping more than his 4.82 FIP coming true |
| 40 | Michael Wacha | STL | Career-high 6 Shellackings (5+ ER start) left his ERA 0.50 shy of FIP as 15% K-BB was 4-yr best; still just 26 yrs old |
| 41 | Kevin Gausman | BAL | Oh great, he reeled me back in with a 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over his L14 starts w/an 18% K-BB & 91 Ks in 87 IP |
| 42 | Marcus Stroman | TOR | Outran poor IF defense en route to 3.09 ERA despite a 1.31 WHIP; could be tough again w/4 31+ yr old IF’ers |
| 43 | Dylan Bundy | BAL | Fast start lacked skills (12% K-BB), bills came due in middle 1/3rd (11%), SL emergence buoyed last 1/3rd (21%) |
| 44 | Charlie Morton | HOU | A season-altering buy late in drafts (ADP 392) who delivered a 3.62 ERA/1.19 WHIP combo; price still fair at 171 |
| 45 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | Only finished 6 IP in 41% of GS, but the great pen afforded NYY that luxury; has skills for 180 IP gem; buy! |
| 46 | Jameson Taillon | PIT | The fact that he could easily slot ~20 spots higher shows depth of The Glob™; had 19% K-BB in F7 GS after cancer |
| 47 | Trevor Bauer | CLE | Yet another SP who cut FB usage to fuel success: 5.59 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 54% FB in F18; 2.60, 3.63, 42% in L13 |
| 48 | Luke Weaver | STL | I consider myself a big fan, but the market has blown past me (ADP 112); 7+ Ks in 6/10 starts (30% K in 55 IP as SP) |
| 49 | Sonny Gray | NYY | OAK work (3.25 FIP, 16% K-BB, 0.7 HR/9) masked NYY struggles (4.87, 12%, 1.5) despite similar ERA (+0.29 in NYY) |
| 50 | Drew Pomeranz | BOS | While inj. concerns are fair, he is 1 of just 27 SPs w/B2B 170+ IP seasons; 1 of 7 to add a 24% K in each, too |
| 51 | Danny Duffy | KCR | 81% LOB from ’16 sank as expected, but so did the HRs; injuries returned yielding sub-150 IP again (>150 just 1x) |
| 52 | Rich Hill | LAD | In a vacuum, Hill & Wood aren’t unlike the #28-31 group of lower-IP studs, but Hill is the ultimate hot potato at age-39 |
| 53 | Alex Wood | LAD | Saw velo & skills decline over the summer leaving him shy of that group in raw talent; I’ve always been nervous about him even when he’s running well |
| 54 | Kenta Maeda | LAD | Teammates grouped by design as they’re similarly skilled health risks whose ultimate value depends on IP count |
| 55 | Gio Gonzalez | WAS | Obv. not a true talent 2.96 ERA, but he doesn’t need to be w/this rk; can add a run in ERA and still be top 50-60 |
| 56 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | My pessimistic rk in ’17 was right for wrong reasons (IP, not ERA), but 3.88 FIP backs my concerns; I remain leary |
| 57 | Alex Cobb | FA | Never recaptured splitter, resulting in GB% dip; plan for the 17% K we’ve seen since TJ & hope 23% of ’13-14 returns |
| 58 | Blake Snell | TBR | Career 3.83 ERA despite a 1.45 WHIP speaks to quality stuff amid command issues; 3.28 ERA & 24% K in L15 GS |
| 59 | Sean Manaea | OAK | Mostly healthy, but a 3-start run of 17.55 ERA added 0.58 to bottom line (3.79 in other 26 GS); market has cooled |
| 60 | Ervin Santana | MIN | Ran scalding hot in F11 (1.75 ERA, 4.22 FIP), over-corrected in June (6.03, 5.87), then solid in L16 (3.51, 4.17) |
| 61 | J.A. Happ | TOR | Another strong effort (3.53 ERA, 15% K-BB), but inj. caused 4-yr low in IP (145) and age (35) will tamp down cost |
| 62 | Cole Hamels | TEX | Wheels falling off or an off yr tanked by a 2-mo. injury? More the latter IMO & he’s priced to buy at ADP 234 |
| 63 | German Marquez | COL | A 1.7 HR/9 in Coors mitigated 17% K-BB as RHB clubbed fastball (1.016 OPS); room for growth here & v. cheap |
| 64 | Julio Teheran | ATL | Just 1 yr of Suntrust, but LHB utterly obliterated him (1% K-BB); solid streamer w/upside if hm woes are cured |
| 65 | Tanner Roark | WAS | Had 3.90 ERA and 86 Ks in 81 IP in 2H; he’s logged 180+ IP in 3 of the last 4 seasons, too |
| 66 | Jake Faria | TBR | Solid 87-inning debut and doesn’t look at all that different than his teammate coming up next… |
| 67 | Jake Odorizzi | TBR | Too many HR and BB saw his ERA and FIP soar, but closed with a 3.47 ERA in his final 12 starts |
| 68 | Brad Peacock | HOU | No gtd spot, but 3 inj. risks and a 34-yr old in rotation will offer chances to carve out 110-130 IP w/~15 GS (+/- 5) |
| 69 | Dinelson Lamet | SDP | Needs something to get LHB out or volatility will remain; but swing-and-miss & RHB dominance lay a foundation |
| 70 | Patrick Corbin | ARI | Skills returned to ’13 level, but HR & BABIP kept the ERA higher; could be biggest humidor benefactor… if it exists |
| 71 | Rick Porcello | BOS | As hot as he ran in ’16, he was equally as cold in ’17; hard to peg for ’18, but I’d tab him for a low-4.00s ERA |
| 72 | Marco Estrada | TOR | Stress from personal issues kept him from proper sleep; figured it out in late-summer save 3 Shellackings |
| 73 | Joe Musgrove | PIT | New park should cut HRs (1.4 career) and better maximize the 15% K-BB we’ve seen so far; has K% upside, too |
| 74 | Aaron Sanchez | TOR | Blisters & broken fingernail destroyed season (4 DL stints); only had 12% K-BB in ’16 breakout despite great stuff |
| 75 | Mike Clevinger | CLE | Will struggle to consistently go 6+ IP if 12% BB doesn’t improve; cheap as he currently doesn’t have gtd spot |
| 76 | Tyler Chatwood | CHC | I see something like 140 innings of a 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 22% K rate. Useful, but not transformative |
| 77 | Chad Kuhl | PIT | Flamethrower rebounded w/3.38 ERA in L16, tallying 83 Ks in 88 IP; needs changeup refinement to truly breakout |
| 78 | Zach Davies | MIL | Wasn’t just a product of 17 Ws, but they masked an ugly 8% K-BB; still just 25 y/o & capable of another high-3.00s yr |
| 79 | Miles Mikolas | STL | Put up 19% K-BB in 3 NPB yrs w/’17 being the best (22%, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP); Colby Lewis comps make sense |
| 80 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | Enough potential to facilitate a bigger jump, but the walk rate keeps expectations in check; fanned 24% in 100 IP |
| 81 | Chad Green | NYY | Being stretched out as SP, but he’s a viable pick even if he doesn’t start as he can deliver 90+ IP of quality work |
| 82 | Jhoulys Chacin | MIL | Skills suggest the nearly 5 runs of difference (1.79 home, 6.53 road) is a mirage; he’s a true talent 4.00 ERA guy |
| 83 | Luiz Gohara | ATL | Probably deserved a better fate against righties as a .418 BABIP overshadowed his 19% K-BB in 102 PA |
| 84 | Brent Honeywell | TBR | Tore through Double- and Triple-A last year with a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 30% K, and 6% BB in 137 innings |
| 85 | Jack Flaherty | STL | Quality heat (93 mph) misses bats and induces GBs while CB & SL do most of the work generating his strikeouts |
| 86 | Lucas Giolito | CWS | Found some confidence in AAA and carried into a solid MLB sample, though that 1.6 HR/9 needs some work |
| 87 | Alex Reyes | STL | Returning from TJ and will start in the bullpen after returning in May; keep expectations in check for the 23 y/o |
| 88 | Mike Montgomery | CHC | Might be stuck in the swingman role again (14 GS, 30 RP app.), but he can make an impact w/120-140 IP |
| 89 | Steven Matz | NYM | Has some swing-and-miss stuff & good control, but he’s now 27 with just 235 MLB innings under his belt |
| 90 | Reynaldo Lopez | CWS | Big velo, two reliable secondaries, no platoon split, and pedigree could foster a breakout for this 24 yr old RHP |
| 91 | Dan Straily | MIA | Cautionary tale re: parks fixing HR issues; stayed at 1.5 from CIN to MIA, though a horrific road rate played a role |
| 92 | Matt Shoemaker | LAA | Forearm strain ate his entire second half, but there’s still nice upside here if he’s healthy coming into ’18 |
| 93 | CC Sabathia | NYY | Crafty southpaw has posted 328.3 IP of 3.81 ERA and 12% K-BB over the last two seasons |
| 94 | Felix Hernandez | SEA | Shoulder bursitis ate up 3 months of his season and a flood of HRs offset his K and BB gains |
| 95 | Trevor Williams | PIT | Quietly had a sharp finish to his season with a 3.49 ERA in his last 98 innings and gets half his gms in PNC Park |
| 96 | Walker Buehler | LAD | Likely opens AAA to tighten up the control & refine changeup; if he gets a shot, he could be a game-changer |
| 97 | Jharel Cotton | OAK | Unquestionably rough season, but there’s still an arsenal for success here if he alters his approach |
| 98 | Robert Stephenson | CIN | Rich secondary arsenal (.510 OPS, 38% K rate in 219 PA) generates plenty of whiffs and keeps hope alive |
| 99 | Michael Kopech | CWS | No incentive for the White Sox to rush him & burn svc. time as they’re not slated to contend just yet |
| 100 | Luis Perdomo | SDP | Addition of Freddy Galvis could be huge as he should turn more of that 62% GB rate into outs |
| Nathan Eovaldi | TBR | INJURY RISK | |
| Tyler Skaggs | LAA | INJURY RISK | |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | INJURY RISK | |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | INJURY RISK | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | INJURY RISK | |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | INJURY RISK | |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | INJURY RISK | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | INJURY RISK | |
| Andrew Heaney | LAA | INJURY RISK | |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | INJURY RISK | |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | INJURY RISK | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | INJURY RISK | |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | INJURY RISK | |
| Nathan Karns | KCR | INJURY RISK | |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | INJURY RISK | |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | INJURY RISK | |
| Anibal Sanchez | FA | INJURY RISK | |
| A.J. Puk | OAK | PROSPECT | |
| Tyler Mahle | CIN | PROSPECT | |
| Erick Fedde | WAS | PROSPECT | |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | PROSPECT | |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | PROSPECT | |
| Forrest Whitley | HOU | PROSPECT | |
| Justus Sheffield | NYY | PROSPECT | |
| Chance Adams | NYY | PROSPECT | |
| Mike Soroka | ATL | PROSPECT | |
| Kolby Allard | ATL | PROSPECT | |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | PROSPECT | |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | POST-HYPE | |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | POST-HYPE | |
| Jose De Leon | TBR | POST-HYPE | |
| A.J. Cole | WAS | POST-HYPE | |
| Luke Sims | ATL | POST-HYPE | |
| Daniel Norris | DET | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Jose Urena | MIA | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Jakob Junis | KCR | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Parker Bridwell | LAA | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Chad Bettis | COL | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | LOTTERY TICKET | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Matt Moore | SFG | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Martin Perez | TEX | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Adam Conley | MIA | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Matt Boyd | DET | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | LATE BLOOMER | |
| Brent Suter | MIL | PER INNING | |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | PER INNING | |
| Trevor Cahill | KCR | PER INNING | |
| JC Ramirez | LAA | PER INNING | |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | PER INNING | |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | BORING VET | |
| Mike Leake | SEA | BORING VET | |
| Jason Vargas | FA | BORING VET | |
| John Lackey | FA | BORING VET | |
| Mike Fiers | DET | BORING VET | |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | BORING VET | |
| Doug Fister | TEX | BORING VET | |
| Andrew Cashner | FA | BORING VET | |
| Jordan Zimmerman | DET | BORING VET | |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | BORING VET | |
| Chris Stratton | SFG | BORING VET | |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | BORING VET | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | FA | BORING VET | |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | RAW SKILLS | |
| Jesse Hahn | KCR | RAW SKILLS | |
| Francis Martes | HOU | RAW SKILLS | |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | RAW SKILLS | |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | RAW SKILLS | |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | RAW SKILLS | |
| Dillon Peters | MIA | RAW SKILLS | |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | RAW SKILLS | |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | RAW SKILLS | |
| Sal Romano | CIN | RAW SKILLS | |
| Buck Farmer | DET | RAW SKILLS | |
| Brett Anderson | FA | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Scott Feldman | FA | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Michael Pineda | MIN | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Drew Smyly | CHC | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Steven Wright | BOS | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY | |
| Julio Urias | LAD | DO NOT DRAFT INJURY GUY |
Love the commentary, too. Thanks Paul.
Thanks! I thought a quick hitter would be easier than it was, but I ended up digging in to find each tidbit so these were delayed a bit
Thank you, Paul. This is simply fantastic.
And not a wasted effort. I enjoyed them all.