15 xHR/FB Rate Positive Validations from 2017

As suggested by commenter Konoldo in yesterday’s post discussing 10 2018 HR/FB rate decliners, today I am going to use my new xHR/FB rate to identify surprise 2017 power sources validated by the metric. These are the hitters that either came out of nowhere to post big HR/FB rates, or really upped their games, blowing past even the most optimistic of projections. The knee-jerk reaction is always to expect severe regression, but xHR/FB rates might make you think twice. Perhaps a repeat is more likely than you think for these hitters.

This list includes a slew of the hitters that produced big profits for their lucky fantasy owners last season.

While Tommy Pham’s xHR/FB rate sat more than four percent below his actual mark, greater than anyone else on the list, you would still agree that a 20%+ xHR/FB rate is plenty validation for Pham’s surprising pop. Oddly, he has performed better during his Major League stints than in his time in the minor leagues! Even in 2016, he posted a 34.6% HR/FB rate over a small sample with the Cardinals, but he has never posted a minor league HR/FB rate above 21.1% (which came all the way back in 2008 at Single-A), and nothing above the 15.4% mark posted at Triple-A this year since that big year back in 2008. What’s scary is if he manages to increase that puny fly ball rate without sacrificing anything else, he could both fight off HR/FB rate regression, while also potentially boosting his AB/HR rate.

Soooo, clearly Ryan Zimmerman was finally healthy again. I would not bet on a repeat, but at least we can confirm that he didn’t benefit from some crazy good fortune.

Interestingly, Steven Souza Jr. has boosted his Brls/True FB each season since 2015, though his Avg FB Dist has been virtually unchanged. He has also swapped out some opposite field flies for pulled flies, which is another positive. And hey, he’s back to stealing bases again! It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll continue to do so this season.

Man, I mean I guess Ian Happ hinted at a power outburst when he posted a 31% HR/FB rate at Triple-A before his promotion, but that came in just 104 at-bats and he routinely posted low-teen HR/FB marks in the minors previously. And his current Game Power grade heading into 2017 was only a 40!

Logan Morrison is large, so it feels like we had been awaiting a massive power surge for a loooooong time. It finally came. Both his Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist have trended upward and he has transitioned from an opposite field flyballer to a pull hitter. His power expectations will depend heavily on where he signs.

Scott Schebler boosted his Statcast metrics across the board, and his 2017 HR/FB rate was more in line with in 2014 at Double-A. It also doesn’t hurt that Great American Ballpark is a left-handed power hitter’s paradise.

We have yet another minor league HR/FB rate crusher in Matt Davidson, who had never posted a mark above 15.8% in his long time on the farm. His plate discipline suggests he was simply swinging as hard as he can at everything and despite the homers, it wasn’t exactly a successful strategy, leading to a tiny .297 wOBA.

Well hey, it took quite a while, but Tim Beckham finally proved why he was a one-time top prospect. A full season in a more home run friendly venue will help stave off any regression.

Trey Mancini was one of the few on this list who xHR/FB rate suggests should have been even better. Interestingly, he managed to post such an impressive mark despite hitting a high rate of fly balls the opposite way. If he becomes more pull-happy, perhaps that HR/FB rate gets into the 20s.

After treading water in HR/FB rate for three seasons and suffering a declining ISO ever since his 2013 debut, Yasiel Puig
rebounded, reminding us again of his tantalizing collection of tools. Though curiously, his Avg FB Dist actually fell just below the league average.

The “guys who posted HR/FB rates well above their minor league marks” club gets another member in Jorge Bonifacio who was never above 11.3% down on the farm. He managed such Major League power, despite calling one of the most pitcher friendly parks home. There’s additional home run upside if he turns some of those line drives into fly balls, though that could hamper his BABIP.

Strategy for left-handed batters to realize their power potential — join the Yankees. Aaron Hicks joined the team in 2016 and did nothing with his opportunity, but ended up forcing his way into the starting lineup in 2017 and posted a HR/FB rate at home that was more than double his away mark. Since he’s going to remain in a Yankees uniform, that split is nothing to be concerned about.

Chris Taylor?! He was an obvious knee-jerk regression call, but perhaps that regression won’t be as severe as you may have figured. Both his Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist were just above the league average, and there’s upside here if he alters his approach to become more pull-heavy.

Jose Ramirez more than doubled his HR/FB rate, but xHR/FB rate buys most of those gains. His Brls/True FB finally got out of the single digits, his Avg FB dist rose, and he dramatically upped his FB Pull%. It’s pretty amazing he has been able to make this transformation while keeping a strikeout rate below 11%.

A career mid-single digit HR/FB rate guy, Jose Pirela suddenly decided to join the power revolution this year. It all started in Triple-A, where he posted a 24.1% HR/FB rate, far above his previous career high. While that mark didn’t exactly fully carry over, he did sustain some of his gains. What’s interesting is that he barely increased his Brls/True FB rate, yet his Avg FB Dist spiked. Helping matters was a surge in FB Pull%.