Keeper Deadline (2018) – All Questions Answered
Welcome to the Ottoneu keeper deadline, 2018 edition. Today (11:59 PM EDT) is the final day to make that difficult decision about your on-the-bubble players before rosters lock and you set your sights on your upcoming league auction. Per the rules:
Between the end of the Major League Baseball regular season and the end of arbitration, players may be cut. Between the end of arbitration and the keeper deadline, players may be cut or traded. After the keeper deadline and before the auction draft, teams may not cut or trade any players.
Since the keeper deadline also serves as a de-factor trade deadline, I’ve lined up a few final resources for you below and I’ve asked a handful of Ottoneu experts (Justin, Chad, Brad) to check your questions and comments periodically throughout the day to offer their input on your toughest decisions. You don’t play this game? You should, but even if your non-Ottoneu keeper deadline is still a few weeks away, feel free to fire your questions below and we’ll do our best to give you feedback (for context, don’t forget to let us know details about your league format).
A few deadline resources:
Justin has updated his Surplus Calculator and has offered a road map for inflation and trade analysis
Paul has updated his Starting Pitcher rankings
Brad has warned us all about keeping too many players and the flaws of rebuilding
Chad wrote the book on player values across Ottoneu formats and how to calculate your own values
I’ve got you covered on prospect values
To kick things off I’ll use Justin’s calc to highlight a few of my own players I’ve been talking myself in or out of for 2018:
Mike Trout ($68 Calc Value; $81 Salary)
In one particular league I own Trout at $81. His current average salary in Ottoneu is $74. Is he worth it? In my situation (likely rebuilding), there’s no doubt at all that he’s a keeper for me. Yes, I’ll push hard to get lucky enough to be in contention in July, but I’ve been playing long enough to know you always want to be the guy holding the Trout card. If I’m winning, I’ll have Trout to thank. If I’m out of it, I’ll be holding the best trade chip in the league. It’s a win-win situation. I’m not thinking twice about this.
Clayton Kershaw ($53 Calc Value; $68 Salary)
I’m keeping Kershaw in the Ottoneu Champions league, and on it’s face it sounds pretty foolish. After an average of just 162 innings over the past two seasons and with 2017 being his worst season since 2010 (1.18 HR/9 last year), Kershaw, due to his high average salary (currently $64…will be interesting to see what it is tomorrow), will be one of the most commonly cut players across all leagues today. Not only do I believe Kershaw is primed for a big bounce back in 2018 (Steamer doesn’t agree with me, calling for a HR/9 closer to last season than his career average of 0.60), but I’m carrying a ton of high impact prospects in this league and need to do everything I can to maximize the value of every open roster slot heading into the auction. This is a tricky play, but (like Trout above), it’s very likely Kershaw is more valuable to me than almost any other team in the league due my roster construction, so the risk of losing him outweighs the potential burden of overpayment here. Context is everything, and I’m riding Kershaw to the finish (or at least until I trade him).
Christian Yelich ($26 Calc Value; $32 Salary)
Yelich’s average Ottoneu salary is currently $25; I just traded for him at $32. This has less to do with his move to Milwaukee (though 41 of his 59 career home runs have come on the road), and more to do with the fact that there are few established players who I believe still have another gear or two of potential improvement. To me, Yelich’s baseline is about as stable as they come, but I’m willing to pay extra here for the chance he takes that Charlie Blackmon-like leap into superstardom. True, the big expected breakout didn’t come last year at age 25, but as they say, I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late.
Kyle Schwarber ($16 Calc Value; $24 Salary)
There are plenty of reasons not to pay a premium for Schwarber heading into 2018:
- 30% career strikeout rate
- .171/.306/.341 vs. LHP in 2017
- Limited AB’s (Steamer projects just 117 games)
But after playing fantasy baseball for more than 20 years I’ve realized that every once in awhile (I’ve set my target at one or two per off-season), you have to occasionally ignore the numbers and bet on your gut. Kyle Schwarber seems like a terrific kid; I’m all in on the “best shape of my life” storyline and it isn’t even spring training yet, and the “eye test” tells me the kid is just a damn good hitter, plain and simple. I don’t have a lot of analytics to back this up (well, he was much better in the 2nd half last year), and I could be very wrong on this one, but I also know I’m going to have a lot of fun watching Kyle Schwarber in my lineup this year if I’m right…
Ok, now it’s your turn. Which players are you struggling to keep or cut today? What’s stories are you telling yourself to make those decisions? Let us know in the comments (remember we’ll be checking in and out all day, so even if you don’t get a quick reply, be sure to check back in closer to the midnight deadline).
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
In a 5×5 Otto league I have Wil Myers at $24, with Smoak as his backup. I was anticipating a Hosmer signing giving myers OF eligibility in the first week, but now I’m not sure I want to risk it. Hosmer, Edwin and Thames are already in the auction pool, however as this is our leagues sixth season I expect quite a bit of inflation. Sorry for the novel, but any input helps.
I would keep Myers, that’s close to my par price on him, so in an older league that’s likely a bargain.
10 teams, 8 keepers.
My first 7 keepers are locked. Who fits best in my team? Options are Pham, Shaw, Carrasco and Yu?
These are my keepers:
1B- Hoskin
2B- Ramirez
SS- Correra
3B- Arenado, Bryant
OF- Stanton
P- Scherzer
Carrasco
Roto? I agree Carrasco is the guy to keep here. Good nucleus!
14 team H2h standard 5×5 cat. 4 keepers unlimited years. Trying to figure out my fourth keeper. Already keeping Goldy, Correa, Donaldson. Deciding between Conforto, Devers, Nola or Gleybar. Leaning Devers, love the approach. Much appreciated.
Would rule out Conforto due to injury and Gleyber only because we just don’t know yet. I love Nola but agree with Devers here.
Only 4 keepers, I would say you have to go hitters. Too much volatility for most pitchers. Love Nola, but Devers could be special and compliments with Correa for down the road.
Cueto at $21 in a high inflation league (been active since 2011). I like him this year but part of me says I can get him back cheaper in the auction. Ottoneu ownership rate is down to 38% with a $25 avg salary so it looks like the consensus is cut. What are you doing with your Cueto shares?
I would cut, I am very leery about Cueto for ’18.
Agree with Justin as this is much about perception as performance. I think the crowd values Cueto less and you get him back more cheaply in the auction
NL Only: Steamer and ZiPS still love Joc and Schwarber, with 2 of the best NL OF wOBA projections, but my eye test (and the demotions by their MLB clubs) say they are not reliable as keepers. You like the eye test on Schwarber, but what about Joc?
Joc is tough; I would lean cut as he’s more likely to see a straight platoon especially if Verdugo pops up this year.
Okay, settle an argument. Who is the one to leave off, price be damned? Bregman, Devers, Bellinger, Hoskins, Benintendi?
Man, that’s tough, Hoskins? Pray he regresses if you let him go.
Format? If forced to pick one to drop I’d probably pick Benintendi or Devers.
For 2018 only I would actually leave off Devers as I think 3B is very deep.
12 teams, 8 keepers. Struggling with my last guy. Options are Miggy, Smoak, Hanley, Richards, Lester, Wood.
These are my keepers:
2B- Schoop
SS- Bogaerts
3B- Rendon
OF- Trout
OF- Braun
OF- Pham
P- Sale
Without more context I would keep Miggy here and hope for a rebound. If he get it he will pay off more than the upside of any of the others here.
max salary Addison Russell (power breakout in there?) or min salary Ketel + JP Crawford?
I’d go with the duo and take a chance on Ketel as the best of the three this year
$23 Buxton and $32 Arrieta? Pretty thin free agent market at SP and OF at this point, although a few teams haven’t made cuts yet.
What format? If 5 x 5 I would keep Buxton between the two
Sorry, Fangraphs PTS
100% cut both
5×5 old school Head to Head, $26.00 cap. Planned to keep Bour at .60, but not sure. Losing confidence in keeping Domingo S. at .70, too. I do have Puig at $1.00, Schwarber at $1.10 and Ender (who I’m strongly considering) at .60. I have power and speed. Have Honeywell at .60, too. Thank you!
We know about is going to play every day he’s healthy so I’d vote to keep. Domingo is tough to value now but he’s talented enough to still pay off at this price
First off, thank you so much for doing this!
Need two more keepers in a 12 team, OBP league. Keep forever at no cost. Options are Hoskins, Bell, Domingo, Taillon, Buxton, Godley. Definitely leaning towards Hoskins for one of the two spots.
My other keepers are:
C: Contreras
1b: Freeman
2b: Dozier
SS: Seager
3b: Arenado
UTL: Bregman
P: Scherzer
P: Kluber
Hoskins easily, followed by Buxton. If Bell learns to hit fewer ground balls he’d be my choice but I don’t see it yet.
The two I can’t decide on today is $26 Bogaerts and $21 McCutchen. (Ottoneu 5×5) Love Xander for a big time bounce back. But $26? How scared am I of McCutchen in sanfran?
I would keep Cutch, and Bogaerts would depend on how old the league is/how high I expect inflation to be, leaning towards a cut.
Keep Cutch. I’d try to guess the league depth at SS and if it’s tight I think it’s reasonable to keep XB. Agree he could explode one season.
FGPTS. Dansby Swanson at $12? Choo at $15? Conforto at 11? Long-time league. Have Gregorius, Moncada, and Panik at MI. I expect pretty high inflation at the auction.
Cut Dansby. I’d also cut Choo but I’m lower than most on him. Really tough on Conforto due to the injury. I would only keep one of those two OF and prefer the risk/reward on Conforto
Thanks Trey!
In FGPts league, I own $54 Max, $37 Verlander, $41 Stras, $20 Gray. Trying to err on the side of *not* keeping too many. Who do you keep?
I’m leaning Stras and Gray.
Cut Verlander; keep Strasburg. I think Gray will be a $20 SP this year but if your league thinks differently you could potentially get him for ~$15. Scherzer is probably worth it but just depends if you can make the salary work.
Do you recommend definitely keeping either Gray or Scherzer, to have 2 good ones heading into the draft? Or possible to go into draft with just Strasburg?
Traditional 12 team league except we don’t use NL or AL West (save the Astros) players to limit player rule ( crazy rule, I know).
Can keep up to 4. Already keeping $19 schoop, $8 rivero, $6 devers.
For my 4th guy, the options are $34 kluber, $6 bauer, $8 Morton, or $19 moustakas. I don’t have to keep a 4th. Last year the top pitchers went for $36 as context
Is this a time zone thing? I ❤️ Kluber
Hey guys this is my first year in Ottoneu and could use some help on the following players in FGPoints.
$24 Matt Carpenter, $7 Kyle Tucker, $6 Inciarte, $6 Flaherty and Newcomb. $28 Lester, $7 Luis Robert, $24 Yoenis, $19 Cole, $5 Addison Reed.
Thanks!
Keep Carpenter, Reed, and Cespedes. Cole is the tough one and I lean keep. I like the other players but would cut them and target at the auction for less.
I would definitely keep Inciarte and Cole. I see Carpenter > Cespedes. Tucker > Robert. Definitely no on Lester at that price.
Not ottoneu. 13 team league with 12 keepers, feels like inflation is fairly high. Keep Carrasco at $33 or Chase Anderson at $10? Or neither?
Carrasco, but I was pretty surprised at how high Paul had Anderson ranked on yesterday’ Top 100 SP so I’m stuck on this one. Keep both I think.
8 x 8 (OBP, 2B, 3B x IP, Hold, K/BB) 16 team 37 man roster + 15 Farm (Farm no contract till activation) $370 budget.
Keep Yadier Molina at $25?
Context – I also have Carson Kelly for $1 so if I do I’ll have the STL situation on lock. If I should drop Molina I’m looking at Al Avila $1 as my starter or a possible auction buy but there doesn’t seem to be many C who will become available at auction.
Did I talk myself into it?
I’d be comfortable with Avila and would prefer to use that $25 savings somewhere else on my roster.
Fgpts $22 Braun with a deep OF. Leaning toward cutting him and being more flexible.
That sounds right for Braun. I’d keep at $22. If you truly have OF depth try to trade him today
That’s about par for me on Braun, I don’t think keeping or cutting is a mistake, it depends on the context of your league/team and how risk averse you are.
5×5 ottoneu. I read about D.J. Stewart somewhere and now own him for $2. I believe I am the only person in the entire ottoneu universe to own him. But he went 20/20 last year in AA with a very solid K/BB rate. What am I missing here?
Also, $3 Tyler Lyons. Seems like he’s worth a flyer for saves?
Recommend cutting both. Both can be picked up for $1
I agree with Trey, no sense keeping a guy for $2 or $3 if there’s an excellent chance you can win him back at $1 or $2
What do you do with relievers? FGpts I have a $3 Neris, $4 Hader, $3 Nicasio… Throw the money back in and see what shakes out?
I’d keep Hader there
20 team 7×7 (W, QS, SV+HLD, K, K/BB, ERA, WHIP)
Last keeper on a weak pitching staff (ranked between 35-67), should I keep Odorizi (67), Karns (Injury Risk), or Daniel Norris (Lottery Pick)? I’m leaning towards Odorizi, but dislike his downward trend.
If you have to keep one, I might take the plunge with Norris. But odorizzi is the “safe” choice
Agree with keeping Odorizzi
FG Points, Starling Marte at $20. As it stands, with him, my roster is at 22/40 and I have $100 for the auction. OFs on my team are JD Martinez, Khris Dave and Scott Schebler…also have Eduardo Nunez and Carlos Santana with OF eligibility and Dee Gordon will gain shortly in to the season.
I wouldn’t keep Marte at $20, but there’s a chance someone else in your league would, so I would shop him hard today and cut if you don’t get any takers.
Not a fan of Marte at that price – hopefully someone traded for him today!
12-team mixed $260, can keep max of 6 players for max 3 year contract.
Not rebuilding: keep $45 Blackmon, $35 Kluber or $17 deGrom
That seems high for Blackmon based on league setup. Feels like you’d get him back for that price or not much more. Degrom is the best value so would probably go with him
Exactly. Agree with Chad on both counts
(NL only FGPTS) I have a pretty deep but very risky OF collection: $28 Cespedes, plus these guys all $7 each: Domingo, DPeralta, Joc, Scwharber, Robles… should I keep [almost] all of them to mitigate the risk, or just flush them all and spend my roster slots on backup IFs and cheap SPs?
by “backup IFs” I mean second tier starters backing up my main IFs (JP Crawford to my Ketel, Gyorko to my Bryant, etc.)
Joc might be a cut but in NL only I could see keeping him. I’m not cutting Domingo peralta or Schwarber
Oh wait NL only…if you lose Domingo is he just gone? That seems problematic. He’s extremely balance valuable but need to make a call on how risk averse you are. I’d keep
Exactly — he’s single best value but he might be lost to AL. That’s why I’d either keep the lot to have a nice broad portfolio, or just flush and redraft. It’s looking like a “glob” so I’m leaning flush.
Thanks guys! Neil Walker $11, high inflation league, FG points.
I think you have to cut Walker, given the uncertainty around his next team/role
yeah, i was hoping he would’ve signed with milwaukee by now.
5×5 league, Ive got a very good chance to compete this year, Im leaning to keeping a 15$ Andrew Miller. I know its hard for him to earn that back with under 10 saves, but im pretty sure hed go for at least 10$ in the auction and as a free agent, he’ll be a 17$ top 3 closer next year (Aroldis, Kimbrel, Jansen are all mid to high 20’s in my league). Is this a bad keep, or just borderline?
I think Miller is a keep at $15, but it’s not a slam dunk
I’ll play. 20 team 8×8 more or less (holds, k/bb, qs on pitching side, f%, tb, ops for hitters), roster 30 keep 22. Options for my last keeper spot include: Chris Owings, Carlos Gomez, Juan Nicasio … I’m stocked at SS already (Simmons, Marte, Peraza) and 2Bs are plentiful in the draft but I’m leaning toward Owings as the highest upside commodity (a trade may well open up pt and w/ 500 pa he’ll approach 20/20) who’s position flexibility will continue. Gomez may have one more year left and CF is a position in our league … usually I can find holds guys but Nicasio may be one of the best this year, w/ potential to grab some saves … other options include Delmonico, Pedroia, Mallex, Chisenhall, Goodwin, Isan … if two or more of these seven seem worthy I could try and open up space by trading someone for a pick …
I’m a delmonico fan, as Justin can attest. Owings or delmonico for me
I prefer Chisenhall out of that group, who I am keeping in several leagues.
$5 Asdrubal Cabrera in FGPts? 2b and SS eligibility and the surplus calculator has him way above that, but I don’t feel it in my soul! Help me
$5 is cheap enough to overcome a lack of soul feeling, a dual MI eligibility from a player who has been worth $9 on average over the last three seasons is hard to let go.
I’m currently wavering on two decisions in my 5×5 ottoneu league, which carried one empty team last year that is drafting a full 40-man roster this season, so I’m cognizant of not being able to be too aggressive in the draft. I have already freed $130 to play with, but am undecided on two additional drops:
$25 Miguel Cabrera: I have no idea what to make of his injury and declining skillset amidst reports that he’s in the best shape in years this offseason. He could be a $35 value, or he could be a $5 value – the calculator splits the difference at $19. I have a $4 Thames and a $10 Sano who both have playing time concerns but could plug first base.
$60 Nolan Arenado: Would be a definite overpay, but seems more bankable than other options in my lineup (Cabrera, Sano, Thames, Pollock, Pham). Donaldson, Turner, and Machado have all been released into the auction already, so the 3B market is pretty flush; I definitely prefer Arenado in that group though and could see myself in a bidding war just to win him back.
I would cut both, Miggy could bounce back and earn $25, but I think you could get him back for less. As for $60 Arenado, I don’t think any player is worth $50 in otto 5×5, so I would definitely throw him back and let someone else overpay for him.
Ottoneu fpts here are my deadline decisions: $3 J Lowrie, $6 A Cabrera, $14 S Gray, $11 M Wacha, $9 K Gausman Leaning towards cutting all, any I should hold? Thanks in advance!
I would keep Cabrera and Wacha
I would be comfortable cutting all of those players at those prices
In my 12T H2H keeper league with 20 MLB + 8 MiLB keepers, I need to drop a couple more MLB players. Am considering trading L. Cain or G. Polanco for prospects/picks. Who is the better keeper (no costs associated)? Is Soto + Keller enough of a return for Cain in this context?
I’d prefer Cain to polanco but it’s close as polanco has upside. I’d take those two prospects if you have to lose one of those OF anyway
Agree, keep Cain and move Polanco for prospects.
20 team mixed H2H points.
league points stucture favors pitching.
final keeper of 12…
Junis, Lopez, King Felix, Finnegan?
thx
Ugh…lopez based on upside?
Maybe keep Felix with fingers crossed. Would not hesitate to cut the others.
FGPTs. I’m on the fence about $32 Nelson Cruz, $48 Corey Kluber, and $33 Verlander. SP is very weak in our FA pool.
I would keep Kluber, cut Verlander, and Cruz is right on the bubble for me.
With SP weak I would cut Verlander. Keep Cruz and Kluber if you can
Taking over a team that finished last in a 5×5 keeper (obp instead of average) . 12 teams. It is a 3 year keeper with salary increasing by 5 per year. Last year was the first year of the league, so every player is in their 2nd year of the contract. Can keep 5. 300 auction draft budget – keepers. Any help would be appreciated…I do like 30 redrafts annually but this is my first year doing a few keepers.
Arenado- 2-54
Altuve – 2- 54
Correa 2-46
Posey 2-26
Ozuna 2-11
Verlander 2-30
Sonny Gray 2-6
Tailon 2-15
Luis Castillo 2-10
Chase Anderson 2-10
Jon Gray 2-7
Ozuna for sure. Posey probably for me. And then I’d gamble on upside and assume I can replace the studs at auction for those prices.
Interesting point of view. Razzball gave me a super different answer. They said Arenado, Altuve, Correa, Ozuna, Castillo. Their line of thinking was that they all will fetch a higher price since it is only the 2nd year of the league, since the players who value most exceeds their price (Judge, Bellinger, Jram, Hoskins, Serverino) will be kept for pennies. Thus since last year was the first year of the league the players with the highest surplus value are going to be kept at a very low price (like 5-10). Thus we would expect the keepers value to rise more than just the 5 dollar per year.
Does that make any sense? I get the line of thinking, sort of.
Prices still feel very high for those studs. J. Gray at $7 seems like the best overall value, but I really like Gray this year.
Alexander Colome at $9 in a points league. I should probably cut him but he did put up over 8 points per inning last year
yeah keeping him
That’s about the right price for Colome, but I hate keeping RP whose value is 100% tied to role. If Colome isn’t a closer he’s probably replacement level at best.
Will be drafting my first Ottoneu team in a couple weeks!
Ok, so keep forever league: last year I dealt Addison Russell, Altherr, Joe Ross, Moncada, Rutherford, Honeywell, 1st rd pick in summer prospect draft (turned into Hoskins)…for Goldy and Fulmer. Kicking myself for swapping in Honeywell for Espinoza, but how do I feel about this trade now that it’s been 6 months? I’ve got Acuna, Rodgers, Rosario waiting on my farm; have a loaded offense; and will be working on acquiring pitching with surplus to contend for this and the next few years.
In general that feels like a lot for you to give up…but just enjoy having goldy. Having 1B locked up at an elite level for years is pretty great
Future evaluation of that trade comes down to Moncada and Honeywell this year for me. Good chance Goldy still the best asset of the bunch.
Pick your top 8 keepers in a 5×5 OBP league.
Moncada $5
Segura $1
Andrus $6
Lamb $13
Betts $20
Bryant $25
Conforto $1
Jansen $21
Doolittle $6
Nola $13
Archer $15
I would drop Andrus. I would keep betts. everything else feels dependent on league structure. # of teams, salary cap, roster size, positions, etc. For example, that Jansen might be overpaid…or might not. I would probably cut him, but not sure. I am not convinced Doolittle holds a closer role all year, so might cut him. If salaries increase slowly, Moncada is interesting. If they increase fast, he might be too expensive to be valuable by the time he is actually good. Is Bryant relatively high priced or low?
Guys I would at least consider dropping: jansen, doolittle, conforto, bryant, moncada. the others I would keep (except Andrus)
Why so down on Andrus?
Jansen is fairly priced. Bryant and Betts are extreme values at those prices.
Bryant, Betts, Segura, Lamb, Conforto, Nola, Archer…Moncada
Why so down on Andrus?
If it is a 10 or 12 team Lamb is replacement value (or lower)
Andrus doesn’t seem like a good play in OBP. I also think Segura is at least equally talented, and he’s cheaper
Thanks for this! In my long time (non-otto) league, this is the first year we’re setting keepers (previously redraft) . . . so no one has any clue what sort of inflation to expect in our post-keeper deadline draft. 12 teams, OBP, shallow rosters (3 OF, 1 C, no MI/CI). $260 budget. Who are your 5 keepers from the below?
$5 Hoskins (definite keep)
$4 Severino (definite keep)
$51 Goldschmidt (in the 2017 redraft auction, I got him for $46)
$58 Harper ($53 in 2017 redraft auction)
$58 Kershaw (traded in season, but he was drafted at $53)
$5 Devers
$6 Nola
$13 Justin Upton
$27 Dozier
Feels like logic would say keep Hoskins/Sev/Devers/Nola/Upton and then use my extra $$$ to try redrafting Goldy and Harper . . . my concern is that my leaguemates (most of whom have never done keepers) keep their expensive first rounders, leaving my first rounders as the only top talent up for bidding (which could send prices to $60+, which is where Trout went in redraft last year).
Thanks!
If they keep their studs, they also won’t have money to spend on your studs. I would definitely let Dozier and Kershaw go. And I would guess inflation is low enough in what is effectively a second year league that your gut is right, you’ll have a reasonable shot to get Goldy, Harper or similar talent back at similar prices.
I wouldn’t overthink it: Devers, Nola, Upton. Spend big in the draft
10 teams, H2H points, 4 keepers (move up 3 rounds from intial draft spot every year) and need help with 2 locked in (pitching depth is coveted):
Carlos Martinez (CarMar) in 9th locked
Godley 20th locked
All of these are relatively late
Gray 12th is exception
LoMo
Duffy
Chase Anderson
Pomeranz
Domingo Santana
Moustakas
Leaning toward Santana and Chase, thanks for the help!
Domingo for sure for me. I also like Mous and Gray, assuming that is Jon and not Sonny.
thanks!
Jon Gray? If so I like him this year. Agree Santana/Anderson afterward
12 team standard roto, keep 5 forever, +$3 annually. Would you trade your $13 JD Martinez for a $23 Machado?
I wouldn’t, but it’s not an indefensible trade, particularly if you are weak at SS and deep in OF.
Yes, I would, with Machado going to SS this season and the “keep forever” factor
FG pts. In win now mode keeping a mostly full roster. $61 Harper is a bit of a luxury. Could spend the money on some pitching.
I would keep Harper at $61 in all leagues (except probably a league going in to year 2)
I’m in same situation in a league with $60 Harper and am keeping
Who’s the better pitcher keeper? 10 team H2H.
Carrasco or Ray?
Carrasco.
Carrasco by a hair
5×5, established league. Extreme stars and scrubs strategy. Keep all the stars? Stars: Trout $77, Harper $59, Kershaw $59, Bumgarner $43, Syndergaard $29. Some of the Scrubs: Morton, Stroman, Giles, Doolittle, Pillar, Bour, Zunino, Dejong, Cozart. If I keep all the stars, keeping 21 players @ $364
Trout, harper, kershaw and bum are all cuts for me. 5×5 the value curve is much shallower than in points or even 4×4. Those guys are not worth that much.
Cut MadBum and reinvest in some of the scrubs including Morton, Giles, Doolittle
Quick follow-up to this: Cut Verlander; keep Strasburg. I think Gray will be a $20 SP this year but if your league thinks differently you could potentially get him for ~$15. Scherzer is probably worth it but just depends if you can make the salary work.
My Q (FGPts heading into Year 2): Do you recommend definitely keeping either Gray or Scherzer, to have 2 good ones heading into the draft? Or possible to go into draft with just Strasburg?
I would cut Scherzer. I would keep Gray, but I think it’s a very tough call.
Looking again I think I’d keep Max and Strasburg and cut Gray to grab cheaper
Thanks for the advice! I’m in a SABR points league. Would you cut or keep Goldie (58), Madbum (39) and Gerritt Cole (24). 1B FA are crappy, but Kershaw, Darvish, Maeda, Tanaka are FA. My team is stacked with these 3 (Others include rendon, trea, Jose ramirez, rhys hoskins, yelich, ozuna, alex wood, garrett richards, luis castillo) I would have $61 for 14 spots, mostly for dollar flyers, please help!
I would definitely cut those SP. I don’t think Cole is worth that price, period. And in SABR I don’t feel the need to hold a high-priced SP, especially one coming off a poor (though admittedly odd) season. Goldy is all about inflation. That price is high for him but if you think inflation will be high, it could be defensible. I’d likely cut them all.
Was offered $24 Paxton for $14 Domingo Santana? Ottoneu FG points. I already have decent pitching, leaning toward keeping Santana but worried about him getting the plate appearances now.
Tough to value Domingo right now. I’d pull the trigger on Paxton
FGPT year 2. I’m keeping Trout, Bryant, Sale, J Ramirez for $200 total. Obviously I’ve got to get creative with the bottom of the roster. $5 Jed Lowrie, $3 Tapia, $5 Asdrubal Cabrera, $5 Ketel Marte (I have no other SS) $4 Moreland, $3 Mark Reynolds (I have no other 1B besides Gyrko as a rover), $3 Gregerson, $3 Petit.
What do you like as keepers out of that?
I’d cut all those scrubs as they are basically interchangeable with many other replacements at auction
10-team mixed, 5×5 OBP, K/BB, keep 7 forever no cost (my order of preference):
Harper
Judge
Benintendi
Abreu
Gallo
J. Turner
R. Zimmerman
Kluber
Greinke
Verlander
Paxton
Price
Huge disadvantage in draft dollars (have ~$175, top team has ~$375, default $260). Too enamored of Gallo to want to keep him over a pitcher? Bigger fan of Greinke/JV next year?
Thanks!
Without $/player info it’s hard but Kluber should absolutely be kept over Zimmerman, who I would drop for Paxton and probably Verlander or Greinke too. I would also keep Gallo
All keepers $0, no cost. I separated hitters and pitchers, would keep Gallo over one of Greinke or JV.
If no cost you have to find a way to keep Kluber. No chance I keep Zimmerman there.
8 team roto league (OBP instead of AVG plus Ks and TB for hitters, QS and losses added for pitchers). 14 keepers, keep forever with no cost. Trying to figure out last keeper slot between Conforto, Darvish, Paxton and possibly Ohtani (waiting for him to pop up on the waiver wire and have first priority). Currently planning to keep:
1B: Votto
2B: Dozier
3B: Rendon
SS: Story
CI: Hoskins
MI: Happ
OF (5 starters): Betts, JD Martinez, Benintendi, Judge
SP (7 starters): Kluber, Syndergaard, Severino
If I can get Ohtani, I’m actually leaning towards trading him as I think others will value him higher than myself. Love Paxton, but I can’t see him staying healthy. Waffling between Conforto (more long-term value, higher upside, no pitcher risk) and Darvish (probably more short-term value, pitching harder to find than OF). Brain tells me to go with Darvish and try to scoop Conforto back up in the draft due to his injury, but I have this fear that he will come back healthy and realize his full potential, someone will grab him before I pick and I’ll be left with Darvish who I’ll probably throw back into the player pool next year anyways. Thanks for the input!
Conforto equally risky to the SP if not more. If keep forever here Ohtani is the easy answer. If no Ohtani, I have Darvish and Paxton dead even so pick your poison
How do you feel generally about keeping middle relievers for ratios? ie of the $3 Carson Smith or $6 Carl Edwards ilk?
Recommend you pass
11 team 5×5 keep 12 $310 cap Trade Paxton ($18) for Rendon ($8)? Balance of staff is Kershaw ($51), Syndergaard ($18), Samardzija ($8), Godley ($6) and Castillo ($4)..Worried about getting a decent 3B in draft.
Seems like a good deal for you (Rendon)
Dynasty League draft right now and looking to draft upside players. Here’s the top players at each position.
C – Murphy, Collins, Jansen
1B – Bradley, Smith, White, Sheets
2B – Long, Hampson, Diaz
3B – Arroyo, Moran, Welker, Jones
SS – Javier, Giminez, Paredes
OF – Bader, Stewart, Marsh, Heredia, Kendall, Baddoo
P – Morejon, Romero, Luz, Fried, Guzman, Pearson, Cease
RP – Sherfy, Alcantara
Have a veteran major league active roster so I’m ok drafting young if needed. Thoughts on top 5 players with long term upside?
Thanks
by spot, I like Collins, Smith, Diaz, Jones, Javier, Stewart. less clear on pitchers for me. And I am not a prospect guy so you should probably ignore me anyway.
Lots of good names here. Pearson has the highest upside in the group. Also like Baddoo, Marsh, (Nolan) Jones, Javier, Heredia.
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2018-dynasty-prospect-draft-review-rounds-10-12/
FG Pts. I’m struggling with a couple of prospects: $3 Sisco and $3 Tapia. They aren’t big name prospects, but if they land a starting job to start the season, they’ll likely go for more at auction. Am I overthinking it and should just cut them?
Yes you should cut both
I’d rather keep Sisco than Tapia, but I agree they are probably both cuts
16-team keeper, 5×5 (QS, K, WHIP, ERA, S+HLD). Which 2 SPs would you throw back:
Sale
Nola
Quintana
A. Sanchez
J. Gray
Peacock
Definitely Peacock and one of Sanchez or Gray. Your call.
Much higher on Gray than Peacock, so toss out Sanchez with Peacock
I already have three good bats, but need help narrowing down my last three keeper options (5×5 OBP league):
$20 Thor
$9 Nola
$5 Rivero
$5 Pham
$5 Acuna
Thanks!
I’ll say Thor, Nola, and Pham. That’s a nightmare though, those are all great assets.
Nola, Thor, and Acuna over Pham only because if he does hit everyone in your league will want him and someone will overpay you into other great assets. Pham won’t have that sexy value.
My two issues are Encarnacion at $30 and Tanaka at $25 in old school 5×5.
In my otto 5×5 league $28 Edwin was cut by another team, expect he’ll still go for around $30 though.
Seems like you should be able to get Tanaka back for less than $25.
I’d be comfortable taking the risk cutting both and trying to resign cheaper
12-team OBP league, keep forever – Rizzo or Machado?
Can’t really go wrong here…
Keep forever I go with the younger guy
10 team h2h, keep 7, ops league, I have Rizzo at 2B, Machado at SS (soon to be), and Trout in the OF. I can pick 4 of: Hoskins, Bellinger, Bregman, Devers, or Benintendi. I think Beni and Belly and Bregman are slam dunks, so Devers or Hoskins?
I think I like Hoskins most of those 5. I know I’m likely on my own…
I agree on Hoskins over Devers but mostly because of the OPS factor and 3B feels deep
10 team roto, keep 8, OPS league, already have Goldie, Harper, Machado, MadBum, Freeman as my first five. Now, I need three of Cano, Xander, Carlos Martinez, Kimbrel, or Devers. Who would you pick long term?
Long term is Devers, but why are you worrying about that for a 10 team format? It’s super shallow, you can get a couple guys like him every year.
I’d still probably do Xander, CMart, and Devers.
10 team mixed, 5×5, dynasty, keep 16 forever. No salary cap. 2 catcher league. Who would you take out of the following for the last three keepers: Avisail Garcia, Jackie Bradley Jr, Mike Zunino, Evan Gattis, and Kyle Hendricks? I feel like I should keep at least one of the catchers; Hendricks would be my 5th starter if kept; Garcia and JBJ are 3rd/4th OF types.
Hendricks and Zunino for sure. I’m not confident Gattis will play a lot in 2018. I’d probably take whichever OF you prefer. That’s JBJ for me, but I’m a longstanding Avi hater.
Thanks for the reply, Brad. Went with your suggestions.
20 team keeper, keep 11, OBP league, I’m loaded with cubs hitters: Schwarber, Rizzo, Baez, Addison, Contreras. Also set with Bregman, Benintendi, and Acuna on offense, and Berrios on the pitching side. Now I need to choose. Lester, Hader (holds count) Inciarte. Leave out one?
Hader.
Keep forever league. 12 teams, must keep 10. 7×7 roto, with OPS and K’s the extra cats for hitters, QS and Holds for pitchers.
No MI or CI, but 2 UTIL spots. These 9 are pretty well locked in….
1B-Rizzo
2B-Schoop
SS-Bregman
3B-Bryant
LF-Schwarber
RF-Betts
SP-Kershaw, Scherzer, Darvish
My options for the last spot are all somewhat flawed – Braun is old and fragile, Pham is due for massive regression, and Eloy and/or Vladdy Jr. are both as yet unproven, but the upside in a keep-forever league is very tempting.
I’m leaning towards Eloy, simply because I would expect him to be in the bigs sooner than Vlad Jr.
I’d do Pham. Much as I like the two prospects, this is a shallow format. You can reacquire them or similar assets. I’m not expecting too much regression from Pham. Either he’ll be pretty similar or bomb completely due to failing eyesight (very small chance).
In a keep forever league I think you have to choose Vlad Jr. I love Eloy, but Vlad maybe in a different tier just a few months from now and could be a generational talent. I’ve never seen an 80 hit tool on a prospect before. Eloy may beat Vlad to MLB, but Vlad may actually figure things out sooner. He’s that good of a hitter.
This is for my Dynasty H2H pts league. 12 team, big roster (4 OF, CI, MI, DH, 5 SP). We can keep 10 players w/ no penalty.
The 8 I’ve decided on are
G. Sanchez
J. Votto
T. Turner
M. Betts
C. Bellinger
C. Kershaw
Y. Darvish
K. Jansen
I need to choose my last two guys between the following; O. Albies, J. Upton, K. Swarber,Tanaka, D. Santana & L. Castillo.
I’m leaning with Albies and Castillo due to youth & upside but I’m curious for some feedback.
That’s a fine plan. The other guy I’d strongly consider is Tanaka for present value.
Thanks Brad! Yeah Tanaka v Castillo is really the one I’m deliberating over the most.
16 team keeper league 260 draft cap. avg AND OPS as offense stats.
Keep 6.
Hitters, keeping C. Taylor ($5), Shaw ($4), D. Santana($2), Blackmon($26). Not keeping J Upton($31), Bruce($29), Marwin($5), Grandal($11)
Pitchers, keeping Carrasco and deGrom both for $26 each.
Not keeping Paxton at $21 or Gio Gonzalez at $4 or Snell at $8
Question: does it make sense to keep both Aces or should I keep one more of my non-keep list instead?
Your plan looks fine to me. I guess the only issue is that everybody you’re keeping is at or around full price. Nothing you can do about that though. The cuts aren’t better values.
That’s what I was thinking. I’m not getting much surplus value outside of Maybe Santana/Shaw/Taylor. With a deep league, basically most of the 1st/2nd round type talent is locked up as keepers. We’ll all end up spending a ton on 1B players that were too expensive to keep. I know I know….
Jose Abreu for $26 in an Ottoneu FGPTs league?
✅ Keeper. Abreu was the only player in baseball last year that increased his OPS in each consecutive month of the season. I see a high floor and a possible $40 1B.
I have him as a push around that price. Seems like a guy who’s going to cliff dive sometime in the next 2 years. Most of the bad body types just aren’t lasting into their 30s these days.
keep forever, no salary, mixed 10 team roto w/ OPS and holds on yahoo. which 5 should i hold out of: bellinger, JD, daniel murphy, justin turner, elvis andrus, jean segura, willy contreras, encarnacion, billy hamilton, darvish, grenkie, robbie ray? asked sporer a few months ago but curious since fa market is slow. thannks!
Bellinger, Donaldson, Contreras are the easy three. Probably Darvish/Ray after that. Tough call.
Traditional 5×5 Roto ottoneu:
Bo Bichette $3 or Kopech for $4?
One year from now the answer could be very different but I think you have to go Kopech now
Keep 2 forever no cost: D Deshields, J McCann, R Grichuk, Daniel Norris
12 team, 2 C, 6×6 with OPS and QS added to normal 5×5
Do you have to keep two? With just 12 teams those guys aren’t very attractive. I’d go Grichuk & Deshields
Should’ve mentioned that it’s 40 player MLB rosters with 20 player MiLB rosters, so it plays a lot deeper than a normal 12 teamer
But regardless, that’s where I was leaning too, thanks for the response
Deep NL 5×5 (W+QS) keep two of Corbin $5, Tyler Anderson $1, Chris Stratton $1, Nova $6 & Pivetta $5 – thanks!
Corbin and Nova I think
New to Ottoneu. 5×5 the team I inherited has Altuve at 55, Donaldson at 47, Freeman at 39 and Bregman at 30 as my most expensive players. Who are the obvious cuts from that group? I’m leaning towards keeping Altuve and Bregman – then hope to get the others back a little cheaper.
All those players but Freeman feel high. That said I’d lean towards keeping Altuve and Freeman. I don’t think Bregman is a $30 player just yet
Have to keep Altuve in 5×5 ottoneu. Pretty much at any cost under $90. That’s my take. Elite talent is life. Doesn’t matter how much it costs.
$32 Kimbrel in a 5×5; I think I can win this year
Seems very expensive. I would cut but if you have the space and the odds in your favor go with your gut
Points league Will Meyers at $18. Will he be OF eligible at some point?
Not a Myers fan – throw him back. Not sure about OF.
12 team ottoneu points. Worth keeping Adrian Beltre around for one more year at $21? Have Devers as insurance at $6.
Yes, keep.
In a FGPts league, I’ve got Carlos Correa at $49. Obviously a bit more than his value, but not by too much, and it’s almost certainly less than what he’d go for at auction this year. I have Didi Gregorius at $9 behind him (and Willy Adames waiting in the wings), though, so I’m wondering whether I should hang on or cut bait.
Keep Correa. I think you will be rewarded this year with the 2nd best player in baseball.
Struggling with a $24 Adrian Beltre. 5th year league with big inflation, and my team is pretty terrible as is. Thoughts?
I still believe in Beltre and would recommend keep.
That was my intuition, but Slack has an 11-0 vote in favor of cutting which is clouding my judgement.
12 team H2H categories league; Really odd/illogical/bad setup: 5×5 plus 2b, 3b, TB, OBP and K/9; 3OF, 1 Util, No MI/CI, 3SP/2RP/3P
Keep 6 forever as 1st 6 picks. My 5 definites are Harper, Betts, Machado, Votto, Kershaw. thoughts on the following for my sixth?
– Benintendi
– Devers
– Bogaerts
– Albies
– Ray
– Nola
Probably Devers. If you had MI option I might choose Albies
H2H 5×5 Categories with QS instead of Wins.
We keep four players and two of mine are set in Hoskins (Round 23) and Corey Seager (Round 16)
I am picking between three guys for the other two slots:
– Buxton (Round 14)
– Knebel (Round 24)
– Rivero (Round 24)
It would be nice to secure two top closers at a minimal price but I am tempted by Buxton.
Sorry, in addition to QS instead of Wins, we do OBP instead of AVG.
Tough call. I do think I’d take a chance on Buxton, and I’d rather have Knebel than Rivero here.
12 team, Max 10 Keeper, 5×5 roto… Last slot: Castellanos, Greg Bird, Amed Rosario, Altherr or cut em all and take 10th rd value in draft?
I think you cut and figure out how to maximize the 10th round value