Kevin Gausman is a total mess right now. His strikeout, walk, swinging strike, hit, groundball, and home run rates are all at career-worst levels. Just four of his 16 starts have been quality starts and he’s only gone 6+ innings in six starts. It’s been a nightmare. His splitter is still solid (though a bit worse than last year), but his fastball and breaking ball (it kinda morphs between a slider and curve, but generally sucks regardless) are both just getting smacked around.

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The results of today’s chat. Very Domingo Santana focused!

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I have a question for you to answer today. Will you answer my question?

AGENDA

1. Twitch
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Yesterday, I listed the 20 pitchers with the largest gaps between their ERA and SIERA marks, with their ERA marks sitting significantly higher than their SIERA marks, suggesting serious potential for improvement moving forward. Today, I’ll list the pitchers on the other side of the coin, the 20 with ERA marks significantly lower than their SIERA marks, suggesting real potential for ERA regression.

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Today’s Roto Riteup will start with something to make you sad and another thing to make you happy: Read the rest of this entry »

• Rough night for Craig Kimbrel as he only struck out one in a perfect inning for his 21st save. I’m a bit late to the game but I watched Fastball this weekend on Netflix which featured Craig Kimbrel and his heater quite a bit. While he was on the Braves when the film came out, he’s throwing even harder now (98.2 average mph on his fastball) and maybe even pitching better than ever, which says a lot. In 33.2 innings pitched this year, Kimbrel has 61 strikeouts against only five walks leading to a 1.07/0.43/1.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. If you’re wondering if maybe SIERA is picking up something FIP is missing, well that’s at a cool 0.94. Kimbrel has broken advanced pitching metrics this year, again.

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Very Quick Look: Doug Fister

I’m skeptical but intrigued by older pitchers making a comeback. An owner could end up with Rich Hill or Jeremy Guthrie. I was extremely skeptical of Fister especially after the Angels, who could use some pitching help, released him.

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A wise man once told me, “Thirty is the new 20.” He spoke not of my dating prospects but of percentages — specifically, strikeout percentages. The gist of his sentiment was back in the olden days, a player’s fantasy value would have been harmed, perhaps irreparably, if he struck out 20-something percent of the time. Now, we see hitters subsist and more with 30-something strikeout rates — Joey Gallo, Keon Broxton, Miguel Sano, Khris Davis and Aaron Judge, to name a few.

We — or, if I dare not speak for you, you intellectual, you, then just I — have been forced to reassess how we (I) “scout” the intersection of contact and power for fantasy purposes. This monologue is peripherally relevant to the eventual subject of this post, Domingo Santana, because he, too, once ran a 30-something strikeout rate. He no longer does that, though, which is good. That’s part of the reason why I’m here. But it’s more of the icing on this cake, so allow me to bake the cake first.

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This week’s prospect stock watch takes a look at an under-the-radar prospect in the Blue Jays system, a shortstop-turned-first baseman showing outstanding pop (and lots of swings and misses), and a long forgotten ($2.5 million) arm now making good in the bullpen.

Edward Olivares, OF, Blue Jays: It’s time to start talking about Olivares – who has been greatly overshadowed by teammates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, two of the top prospects in the game. The lesser known prospect appeared in just 15 games in 2016 due to injury and has made up for lost time in ’17. He’s slugged 11 home runs (fourth in the league) with 14 doubles and eight triples. Olivares, 21, has also successfully stolen 14 bases in 19 tries and is well on his way to a 20-20 season in his first full year. The only real negative to his game so far is the 3.9% walk rate. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions. Look for him to get a taste of high-A ball before the year is out.

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Another week, another grind, another couple home runs for Cody Bellinger.

AGENDA

1. Best Rivera?
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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