Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – 6/27/2017

The results of today’s chat. Very Domingo Santana focused!

3:48
Brad Johnson: I’ll begin with some life advice

3:48
Brad Johnson: If you ever see Sarah Huckabee Sanders trending on twitter, don’t become curious and investigate.

3:49
Brad Johnson: Because you’ll only become angry – that holds true no matter where you fall on the political spectrum.

3:49
Brad Johnson: So, shall we talk baseball?

3:50
BobFromAccounting: Walk rate down, strikeouts up, hard hit % down. What to do about Carlos Santana in a 6×6 OBP & SLG league. Droppable for Granderson?

3:50
Brad Johnson: I’ll have to take a closer look

3:51
Brad Johnson: Because it’s an OBP league, I think you should stick with Santana. That said, I have to imagine there’s a different alternative. There are many players with low ownership rates who are better than Grandy

3:51
Johnny Cueto: I’ve had a pretty meh season, and Baseball Savant has my xwOBA 20 points higher than my already blah wOBA allowed (.349 vs. .328). You concerned? Paul still put me in the must-start tier and close to the top 10.

3:52
Brad Johnson: Well, there were the reports of blisters. I think he’ll be fine if/when those resolve. We don’t get good information as to when that will happen

3:52
Attila the Hunplugged: Jose Pirela: yay or nay?

3:52
Spreadsheet Scout: Do you see Lonnie chisenhall sustaining his recent improvements to some degree ROS?

3:52
Brad Johnson: These are two guys I’d grab before Granderson

3:52
Brad Johnson: risk they’ll turn pumpkin, but you can churn to the next guy at that point

3:53
Brad Johnson: I’ll say, I’m intrigued by both of them

3:53
Brad Johnson: Odds are, at least one of the pair will regress

3:53
Brad Johnson: but I have shares of both for now

3:53
Frozone: Why does Jimmy Nelson have fantasy trade value, but Zack Godley does not?

3:53
Brad Johnson: Zack Godley is better than Jimmy Nelson

3:53
Brad Johnson: treat him as such

3:54
Al: Whats a fair return for Darvish?  Maybe Stanton?  Manny?  Aim lower/higher?  Somehow acquired a ton of strong SP (with MadBum due back soon) but am average at best pretty much everywhere on offense.

3:54
Brad Johnson: With almost no reliable SP in the league, I’m aiming very very high when swapping out pitchers

3:54
Brad Johnson: That depth can turn into a gaping pit of despair with little warning too

3:55
Brad Johnson: pitchers asplode

3:55
Frozone: Will the humidor really make that much of a difference in Arizona?

3:55
Brad Johnson: Probably

3:55
Brad Johnson: I saw some figures awhile back, I don’t remember the details

3:55
Brad Johnson: the effect was supposed to be larger than at Coors though

3:55
Bryan: Trevor Story for Paxton what do you think?

3:55
Brad Johnson: redraft? That’s an interesting challenge trade

3:55
Brad Johnson: they’re both playing terribly

3:56
Pete: Where do you stand on Bellinger?  Will this guy continue to be a fantasy stud this year and beyond OR will regression hit him like a pre-Buster Douglas Mike Tyson uppercut?

3:56
Brad Johnson: Well, I’d bet on some regression, he doesn’t seem quite as good as Judge despite keeping pace

3:56
Brad Johnson: but he’s a legit bat

3:56
Dave: 10tm mixed – I can get Quintana for Price or Ray. Worth it for Price?

3:56
Brad Johnson: Keep Ray, that’s for sure

3:57
Brad Johnson: not sure I see much point shifting from Price to Quintana. Similar projections

3:57
Too many SP: Need to drop a SP (or 2) Have Cmart, deGrom, Stroman, Severino, Wood, Manaea, and Godley. Is it one of the last 2 guys?

3:58
Brad Johnson: So…you have to keep CMart, deGrom, and Wood. I have to imagine you can strike up a swap for one of the others. Those are all top 30 guys with the exception of Manaea (also you’re first cut)

3:58
Andrew: Yesterday morning I traded Starlin Castro and Cespedes for Madbum and Kemp. Now the other guy is complaining that he’s getting a bad deal because castro got hurt and is calling for me (the commissioner) to undo the trade. That’s absurd, right?

3:59
Brad Johnson: Yep, unless there’s something to the contrary in the league constitution

3:59
Brad Johnson: The league I run gives owners 24 hours to reverse a swap for any reason

3:59
Brad Johnson: but then they can’t trade those players for 10 days (to prevent trade tampering)

3:59
Bryan: story for paxton trade is a keeper ottoneu 5×5

3:59
Brad Johnson: ah…that’s…more complicated

4:00
Brad Johnson: All else equal, I’d hold Story. Depends a bit on the prices involved.

4:00
Anthony: Alonso for an injured Hendricks…pick a side 10-teamer, ROS?

4:00
Brad Johnson: Alonso unless you’re drowning in offensive depth – which you very well could be in 10 team

4:01
Frozone: Do you see Miggy rebounding in the second half?

4:01
Brad Johnson: I can see it!

4:01
Attila the Hunplugged: Drop McCarthy for Fister? Fister’s newfound velocity is quite attractive.

4:02
Brad Johnson: Drop McCarthy for something. Unless the league is super deep. Not sure Fister’s the answer, but who knows.

4:02
Too many SP: Looking for 3 keepers in a league where 100 guys are kept. Thames, Dee, Dickerson, Zimmer, Barreto, Zimmerman, deGrom, Alex Wood. Do I even have 3? Albies/Mejia/Frazier are available.

4:02
Brad Johnson: You easily have 3. But ideally, you want higher end talents.

4:02
BobFromAccounting: Santana Follow Up: Granderson has 1.000+ OPS since May 1 and a .297 ISO and a 15.6% BB%. Chisenhall is gone, and Grossman, Bonifacio and Renfroe are the other options.

4:03
Brad Johnson: Granderson is streaky. My response is to just avoid him altogether. But if you think he’ll keep running hot, I suppose there are worse gambles. Personally, I’d stick with Santana, but I don’t feel strongly about it

4:04
Sandy Alomar Jr: Is Francisco Mejia in the Indians plans for 2017?

4:04
Brad Johnson: I doubt it

4:04
Brad Johnson: They already have 2 solid catchers

4:04
Porcho Villa: 12 team mixed H2H– Starling Marte sitting there on the wire. Grab him now?

4:04
Brad Johnson: Getting to be ’bout that time

4:04
Brad Johnson: assuming the opp cost isn’t painful

4:04
Kandalv : Manaea, Nelson, or Grey for 1 SP slot in a league with K/9, BB/9, and K/BB?

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on Nelson – all the same asset class imo

4:05
Colin: Catcher question: would you drop someone like LuCroy, Molina or Contreras for Ramos? I like his upside in h2h

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to go down with the ship with Lucroy. The others are worth dropping for a dice roll

4:05
Porcho Villa: Thoughts on Trevor Bauer?

4:05
Brad Johnson: Usually a dumpster fire

4:05
Brad Johnson: command just hasn’t ever improved

4:06
Bryan: paxton a top 20 arm ROS?

4:06
Brad Johnson: That’s a good question. He’s been terrible since returning

4:06
Brad Johnson: he was a top 5-10 arm before the injury

4:06
Moltar: my team is in first place and barring a huge collapse is playoff bound. I’ve been propped up by a pitching staff that has been very successful, but some of the arms who got me here, most notable Fulmer, Nova and Vargas, keep popping up on sell-high lists. Should I try to consolidate and get a safer pitcher or two? Or ride out with my depth intact?

4:07
Brad Johnson: Vargas in particular has already declined to below average

4:07
Brad Johnson: if you can get something for him, do it

4:07
Brad Johnson: I like nova and fulmer to remain useful

4:07
Porcho Villa: Worth rolling with Lemahieu as a starting 2B? Or better to roll the dice with a waiver option (Happ, Pirela, etc.)?

4:07
Brad Johnson: Roll

4:07
Robert: What do you make of Barreto? How does he compare to other rookies who might get the call this year?

4:07
Brad Johnson: I don’t see much fantasy potential here

4:08
Brad Johnson: at least not immediately, long term, he could be a stud

4:08
Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’ll run as much as people expect, whiffs will be a problem, and accessing power in game could be an issue too

4:08
Brad Johnson: I’m not going out of my way to acquire him in redraft

4:09
Brad Johnson: that said, surprises happen. Bradley Zimmer profiled as only slightly better and he’s been quite solid, albeit in a way that could fall apart at any moment

4:09
Big Tuna: If I need HR in a 12 tm, could I get away trading Yelich for Schebler or Duvall?

4:09
Brad Johnson: Upgrade a CL in the deal too

4:09
Brad Johnson: but yea, I’d prefer Schebler to Yelich at this point

4:10
LegallyEagle: If Brad Hand gets traded to the Nats, will he be slotted in as the closer?

4:10
Brad Johnson: They almost have to try it, no?

4:10
Brad Johnson: That bullpen is a mess

4:10
Brad Johnson: they really need to add multiple arms. Treinen is starting to look better too

4:11
Big Tuna: Is this recent power surge from Moreland legit?

4:11
Brad Johnson: I worry about the thumb injury

4:11
Porcho Villa: Any hope for a Thames turnaround? Obviously he’s not getting back to his Bonds-ian April, but he has looked really bad for the past two months.

4:11
Brad Johnson: He’s been fine, power’s still there. Had that period where he was playing hurt. He’s a low average, high OBP, high power guy

4:12
weezy: I’m desparate at SS in a 15 team keeper. Now that Gleyber (injury) and Barreto (already held) are off the table, is there any other SS who gets called worthy of starting?

4:12
Brad Johnson: Tyler Wade?

4:12
K Broxton vs. A Altherr: In a 12-team mixed keeper league (5×5), who ya got?

4:12
Brad Johnson: Broxton has the ceiling, Altherr is a high floor bat

4:12
Big Tuna: Is Mallex Smith worth owning in a 12 tm if I’m doing well in steals without him?

4:13
Brad Johnson: Somebody should own him. You can let him go to someone else or try to hoard the category and leverage a good swap

4:13
Attila the Hunplugged: Who are some lesser known guys in the minors who could go nuts on the basepaths later in the season?

4:13
Brad Johnson: Zach Granite jumps to mind

4:13
Brad Johnson: He leads the International League in batting average. He isn’t making outs

4:14
dynasty prospects: Triston McKenzie vs. Dominic Smith: McKenzie, right?

4:15
Brad Johnson: That’s either a push or Smith for me. I’ll admit, I’m quite impatient. I’m also edgy about waiting 3 years for a pitcher.

4:15
Brad Johnson: I’d rather try to catch the Alex Woods and other breakouts

4:15
Roberto Alomar: Needs saves…have Kahnle, Doolittle, and Bedrosian stashed, Arodys is owned, who else could inherit a closer role? SF? KC? SD?

4:16
Brad Johnson: Hand or Neshek could be traded into one. Or just promoted. Kela and LeClerc might inherit from Bush

4:16
Baryolo Cologne: Do you forsee Alex Wood as a Top 5 pitcher the ROS? What about 2018 outlook?

4:17
Brad Johnson: Probably the 5-10 range for both until we see otherwise

4:17
Perl: Pollock ($13) and Story ($11) for Sale ($35) Ottoneu 5×5 which side wins?

4:17
Brad Johnson: Good swap

4:17
Brad Johnson: Long term, the position players probably win. Now, I’d prefer Sale

4:17
Moltar: Will the wrist injury and move to 3B zap some of Freeman’s value? Should I try to sell him before he returns?

4:17
Brad Johnson: Go ahead and look into it. Never know when somebody will go crazy

4:18
Cee Jay: Hanley Ramirez?  Be patient or time to move on?

4:18
Brad Johnson: Depends on the format. The shoulder injury isn’t going away

4:18
I dream of Biagini: 137 starters have thrown 30IP since Biagini became a starter (May 7th). His ranks during that time:
7th in GB%, 23rd in FIP, 25th in HR/9, 32nd in BB/9
but he’s 136 of 137 in LOB% at 53%. League average is 72.5%LOB, this has to normalize, right?

4:19
Brad Johnson: Not sure. I don’t have a good read on him. I do know he’s very SB prone which doesn’t help

4:19
Brad Johnson: Obviously, all those other indicators are interesting

4:19
weezy: I am holding onto Rosenthal for spec saves. At what point do I use his roster spot to chase short term saves like David Hernandez or Matt Albers?

4:20
Brad Johnson: When you’re absolutely desperate for those saves. Because those are some nightmares

4:20
Big Tuna: Matt Bush implodes and then bounces right back to lock down a save. Can he be trusted as a closer?

4:20
Brad Johnson: Nope

4:20
Brad Johnson: I’m guessing the Bullpen Report has him listed as yellow

4:20
ROBOCOP: Who’s worth more over next 4 years, Bellinger at $5-$9-$13-$17 or Judge at the same price? 5×5 roto auction keeper league

4:20
Brad Johnson: Judge

4:21
Willy Taveras: Was last year the outlier for Corey Dickerson and should he be considered a top 15-20 OF again?

4:21
Brad Johnson: He’s very good right now. Seems to be a mechanical and approach based change

4:21
Brad Johnson: not everything is merely statistical variation

4:21
Brad Johnson: he was not the same player last year

4:21
Big Tuna: Is Kingery being called up to AAA just a brief stop over on his way to a down and out Phillies team?

4:22
Brad Johnson: Nah, that’s not how they handle prospects

4:22
Brad Johnson: I doubt he’ll even get a September call.

4:22
Brad Johnson: In fact, he doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 this winter. He won’t be added. Their roster is a nightmare.

4:23
Marc: Wieters or Ramos ROS? 12 team OBP league

4:23
Brad Johnson: Ramos

4:23
TERMINATOR: Thoughts on Zunino? Top 8 catcher for the rest of the season?

4:23
Brad Johnson: Gross. I’m not getting tricked into buying Zunino after his annual 15 days of decency

4:23
Pat Listache: Who would you like to have ROS – Maybin, Broxton, or Zimmer?

4:24
Brad Johnson: Maybin with the caveat that he’s frequently unhealthy

4:24
BobFromAccounting: Is Alex Avila, the silver medalist of exit velocity, a useful piece in 12 team leagues after VMART comes back or is the lack of Plate Appearances make him droppable?

4:24
Brad Johnson: He’ll play enough to be a catcher. McCann is bad.

4:25
Spreadsheet Scout: Is Mazara a genuine future fantasy stud, or just one of those Heyward-type bodies people love to dream on? I know he’s still super young, just curious as to your opinion

4:25
Brad Johnson: I think he’ll grow into a monster

4:26
Brad Johnson: Last year, I noticed he’d get fooled and make bad contact. Eventually, he probably won’t be fooled as often.

4:26
Brad Johnson: There’s always risk the development just stops

4:26
Marc: Drop McCarthy for Rodon? McCarthy has been pitching well, when healthy of course

4:26
Brad Johnson: You can, but don’t play Rodon until he shows some life

4:26
Brad Johnson: he was terrible on rehab assignment

4:27
Omar Viquel: Jose Ramirez is a superstar on paper and keeper gold right?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Yep

4:27
Moltar: Does Norris regain the closer’s job when he returns?

4:27
Brad Johnson: I doubt it. Who can predict Mike Scioscia though

4:27
Cee Jay: Joey Bats….in April his avg/obp were .178/.309

4:27
Brad Johnson: Regression is good.

4:27
keeper thoughts: Would you recommend using Newcomb at SD today in 10-team NL only?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:28
Brad Johnson: great park, terrible offense, volatile/high ceiling pitcher

4:28
Johnny Cueto: Also follow up here. Thinking about trading Cueto for Kenley Jansen in NL-only. Have Wood, Ray, Godley, Leake, spot start Chatwood, with MadBum and Cahill on DL, but bullpen has been a mess all year. Seem fair?

4:28
Brad Johnson: Try it. Kenley’s worth a lot more

4:28
Marichal: What’s your level of interest in the Reds’ Luis Castillo? In his first start his fastball averaged 98…

4:28
Brad Johnson: And that is interesting, as was his changeup

4:29
Brad Johnson: I’m watching him closely

4:29
closer thoughts: what are the odds on Braves trading Jim Johnson in your view?

4:29
Brad Johnson: 30%?

4:29
Brad Johnson: I don’t think there will be much demand

4:29
Brad Johnson: at some point, a decent reliever on a bad team is worth more than a bag of balls

4:29
Kandalv : Chris Taylor has a .703 Ops in the last month: Is he worth hanging on to as a MI or should I pursue a waiver option like Harrison or Gennett?

4:29
Brad Johnson: He’s also still hitting homers and stealing bases

4:30
Brad Johnson: hold until the other categories start to disappear

4:30
Jeff: Got Tanaka in exchange for Nova. Did I play myself?

4:30
Brad Johnson: 😀

4:30
Brad Johnson: *nods

4:30
Ben: Rodon or J. Montgomery ROS roto?

4:30
Brad Johnson: monty

4:30
Joey: In shallow dynasty would you drop Greg Polanco for Domingo Santana or Trey Mancini?  10-team, 3 OF

4:30
Brad Johnson: Santana is my preferred bat of the trio

4:31
Brad Johnson: Mancini and distant 3rd

4:31
Cee Jay: Machado seems to be coming around…you buying?

4:31
Brad Johnson: He has to at some point, right?

4:31
Marc: How long do I hold on to Brach after Brittons return? Have them both but would obviously love to switch out Brach for someone more useful if Brittons fully healthy

4:31
Brad Johnson: 3 weeks or so

4:31
Taylor: I’m looking to use my pitching to upgrade my hitting. Who are some OF I could get for conforto and fulmer in a 2 for 1?

4:31
Brad Johnson: Dickerson?

4:31
Brad Johnson: A better version of Conforto basically

4:32
Attila the Hunplugged: Mitch Moreland fractured his toe and is playing through it. I see no reports of a thumb injury. Did you mean toe?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Yes, I meant toe.

4:32
Jeff: Looking to consolidate pitching. King Felix and Peacock for Quintana too much in a 12 tm?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Kinda prefer Peacock’s absurd K rate to the others

4:33
Coach K: Throw some thoughts down. 4×4 mixed 15 teams. I have Kershaw, Strasburg, Fiers, Bauer, Nova all in SP roles. Have 4 RP and will be cutting one. So. I need 6 SP. I have Rodon, Cahill, Sabathia, Morton and Gray Of Rockies all coming off DL soon. I have Thor in Maybe ?. What 6 SP to go to battle with. I get Kershaw and Stars for sure. Pick 4 in 4×4 for me.

4:33
Brad Johnson: Nova, Morton, Cahill, Thor when you’re at full health

4:33
Brad Johnson: I think you can discard Sabathia with confidence

4:33
Brad Johnson: give Rodon some time to build value

4:34
Brad Johnson: Gray is always tricky

4:34
Cee Jay: Best scoring method for fantasy baseball…your thoughts?

4:34
Brad Johnson: Standard 5×5 roto with deep rosters and 14 teams

4:35
Brad Johnson: or 6×6 with holds, OPS and shallow bench

4:35
Brad Johnson: The former is the perfect blend of (sort of) uncorrelated stats

4:35
Brad Johnson: the latter forces managers to punt somewhere.

4:35
Brad Johnson: hold on, door

4:37
Kandalv : Tanaka: Buy low or avoid?

4:37
Brad Johnson: I’m avoiding

4:37
Joey: Drew Pomeranz or Michael Pineda?

4:37
Brad Johnson: And that’s a coin flip of ugly

4:37
Brad Johnson: either could rebound

4:37
Cee Jay: The most under-owned pitcher is fantasy is___________?

4:37
Brad Johnson: Jordan Montgomery

4:38
Jeff: Is Luke Weaver going to be a 2nd half stud this year?

4:38
Brad Johnson: The Triple-A stats are enticing, but I fear he’s one of those guys who doesn’t translate well to the majors

4:38
Jimmy Divirgilio: i have lindor & boegarts can i keep both or trade 1 for a position of weakness? luv both players…..

4:38
Brad Johnson: it’s your team, you can do anything!

4:39
Brad Johnson: as always, it depends on the opportunity costs and what’s available

4:39
Brad Johnson: try to drive a hard bargain

4:39
Dom: Can Brad Peacock stick in the rotation all year, or is he bound for the pen?

4:39
Brad Johnson: he’ll return to the bullpen

4:39
Brad Johnson: if they didn’t already have Devenski, he’d be doing the multi-inning role

4:39
Brad Johnson: the Astros have an embarrassment of pitching riches.

4:39
Nick: Who wins this deal ROS; Trout and Britton for Wood and Cueto?

4:40
Brad Johnson: uh

4:40
Brad Johnson: Trout

4:40
Brad Johnson: by 3X

4:40
Joey: Do you consider Pineda a must-start pitcher in 12-team league formats?

4:40
Brad Johnson: No

4:40
Moltar: In one of my leagues, when you drop a guy with a salary over $10, they keep that salary on the wire, meaning to pick up that guy you have to make a FAAB bid of at least that amount. Aaron Nola has been sitting on the wire for weeks. it would cost me about %50 of my remaining FAAB budget, and I make a lot of bids throughout the season. Is it worth handicapping my future ability to make moves to get a top-30 starter?

4:41
Brad Johnson: I’d pass in that scenario

4:41
Brad Johnson: he’s not THAT good

4:41
Nic: Jordan Montgomery has been pitching great lately. Is he really this good, or should I shop him around and try to sell high.

4:41
Brad Johnson: Nobody is interested. Trust me

4:41
Brad Johnson: just keep riding the wave

4:41
Dom: Is Ken Giles for Knebel just a lateral move, or is Knebel that much better to make it worth?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Looks lateral to me

4:42
Brad Johnson: with the added benefit that the Brewers don’t have an itchy trigger finger with the ninth inning

4:42
Marc: How worried should Villar owners be with him losing significant time to Sogar and the outfield mix with Braun back too

4:42
Brad Johnson: Pretty worried. Sogard looks like he needs to play 6 days a week

4:43
Which side: Madbum and Sanchez for Cutch and Trumbo.  H2H 7×7

4:43
Brad Johnson: Gary?

4:43
Brad Johnson: Sometimes I think people ask me these things just to show off

4:43
Brad Johnson: Gary Sanchez OR Madbum are worth more than Cutch and Trumbo

4:43
Tyler Wade: What do you expect out of me?

4:44
Brad Johnson: super utility guy with potential to swipe a handful of bags

4:44
Frank: have you seen who the DBacks are playing in the OF recently?

4:44
Brad Johnson: ayup, it’ll get much better soon

4:44
Lindor: Is he truly a sub 800 ops SS or has he been unlucky/struggling? I know his defense is great but that has no fantasy implications.

4:45
Brad Johnson: I think he’s a .750-.900 OPS guy

4:45
Brad Johnson: I get that’s a big range, but it SHOULD be a big range

4:45
Frank: DBacks have been playing Hermann/Fuentes/Blanco in their OF…can’t Oswaldo Arcia help in corner OF? he killing it in AAA (granted its PCL) but isnt he an upgrade?

4:46
Brad Johnson: Arcia is in beast mode. It really says something about him that the club hasn’t given him a shot

4:46
Brad Johnson: they  obviously don’t like what they see

4:46
T: Villar or Maybin ros?

4:46
Brad Johnson: ah, sadly I’m inclined to prefer Maybin

4:46
Travis: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez’s Home/Road Splits? Would you start him in Arizona tonight?

4:46
Brad Johnson: I’m starting him, but I’m also cringing

4:46
Brad Johnson: he’s too good to sit anywhere

4:46
AdRock: Nova vs TB, or Gsellman (x2) vs MIA and PHI? Weekly H2H pts

4:46
Brad Johnson: Nova

4:47
Brad Johnson: I don’t want anything to do with Gsellman the starter

4:47
Brad Johnson: I’ll roster his reliever alter-ego though

4:47
Dongmingo: Trade away Kluber for Lamb and Andrew Miller? 6×6 16 team keeper with OPS and holds.

4:47
Brad Johnson: I like that swap on both sides

4:47
HRM: Why do you say that Vargas is below average?  4 of his last 5 were quality starts.  Not many K’s, but with so much bad pitching, isn’t he still valuable?

4:47
Brad Johnson: I guess if you’re in a QS league

4:47
Brad Johnson: Otherwise, he offers zero above average categories

4:48
Brad Johnson: which is by definition, below average

4:48
R2D2: beep beep boop beep bop…do you think the White Sox could get Ablies in a Quintana trade with Atlanta?)

4:48
Brad Johnson: hahaha no

4:48
Brad Johnson: maybe before he pitched poorly for three months

4:48
Brad Johnson: they’ll get a decent return because the peripherals are fine, but they’ve lost the opportunity to command a premium prospect

4:49
Jim: Thoughts on Kendrys Morales?  I was bullish on him preseason due to the ballpark/lineup upgrades, but he’s scuffling…GB% stinks, to boot.  Thinking about dropping him so I can snag CarGo off waivers to DL-stash…then i’ll just find ANYBODY else, right?

4:49
Brad Johnson: I like Morales, but go ahead and stash Cargo

4:49
Brad Johnson: you won’t miss him that much

4:49
Marc: Mazara or Domingo ROS and next year

4:49
Brad Johnson: Domingo? Pretty close through end of 2018. I prefer Domingo in 2017

4:50
TJ: What’s your take on Lucroy?  …besides the fact that he can’t frame or play defense anymore…dude just ain’t hitting!  Drop him for Ramos or Grandal?  Thanks!

4:50
Brad Johnson: Grab Grandal

4:50
Brad Johnson: Lucroy has turned into a better Francisco Cervelli

4:50
C3PO: Moncada over/under 80 games played in the majors this year?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Way under

4:50
Brad Johnson: weird Star Wars theme btw

4:51
Oddball Herrera: Forsythe is 44th at 2B by wR+.  Utley can’t be trusted to play every day, and is also below average offensively.  Why is Willie Calhoun still in the minors?  Even if defense is the issue, put him in LF and let Taylor play second.  Stats make me think he can be who we all wanted Maikel Franco to be…

4:51
Brad Johnson: Utley has something like a 140 wRC+ since May 9

4:52
Brad Johnson: Yea, he needs a lot of rest, but that’s kinda a good thing on that roster

4:52
Brad Johnson: besides Forsythe will figure it out

4:52
Frozone: What kind of pitcher could Andrew McCutchen land in an OBP/QS league?

4:52
Brad Johnson: Godley/Monty/Nelson?

4:52
Brad Johnson: I mean, aim higher

4:52
Brad Johnson: but that’s probably where you’ll settle

4:52
nolan: think Charlie Morton comes back as a valuable asset?

4:52
Brad Johnson: he did the last time he returned from injury

4:53
Brad Johnson: no reason to assume he won’t maintain the velo

4:53
#1 overall: Mike Trout was the consensus #1 overall pick in redraft leagues in 2017.  He will probably be #1 in 2018.  Who is the next player not named Mike Trout who will be #1?

4:53
Brad Johnson: Right now, the only good bet is Aaron Judge

4:54
Brad Johnson: Alternatives like Mookie Betts are too much like Trout

4:54
Brad Johnson: to out-fantasy Trout, you need a 60+ HR bat with 150 RBI

4:54
HAL 9000: Avi Garcia… 1 year fluke, or another piece for the White Sox to build around?

4:54
Brad Johnson: so fluky

4:54
Brad Johnson: so so so fluky

4:54
rich: drop Brantley or Carpenter for DOMINGO SANTANA?

4:55
Brad Johnson: redraft? I might sit on the oldies

4:55
Brad Johnson: they both look likely to regress in a good way

4:55
mookie best: SS is my only weak spot in my 10 teamer OPS lg. is addison russell worth holding or should i be streaming/taking flyers? it hasn’t been great but i want to believe in the talent

4:56
Brad Johnson: I’d be trying to squeeze in others like Taylor. Maybe snag injured Cozart just to see

4:56
Union Jack: I have Bregman at 3B, would I be better of with Gallo or Gennett in a 5×5 redraft?

4:56
Brad Johnson: Gennett!

4:56
Brad Johnson: Oh, that’s not an answer to your question

4:56
Brad Johnson: Somebody asked if they should roster Bennett earlier and I had NO idea who they meant

4:56
Brad Johnson: had to be Gennett

4:57
Brad Johnson: anywho, I think you’re stuck with Bregman for now

4:57
fla;kldjwf: Is Price and Brantley too much for Braun in a 5 OF league?

4:57
Brad Johnson: No, looks like a possible steal for you

4:57
JC At the Bat: Reached salary cap in NL only league.  Have Cahil coming off DL soon $7 (pitching is a mess). Do I drop Pence $14/Crawford $7 or Panik $7.  I think I hold onto Nola $10

4:57
Brad Johnson: Drop a Giant

4:57
Brad Johnson: Panik probably

4:58
Brad Johnson: time for me to wrap it up

4:58
Brad Johnson: I’ll skip forward to the present, I’m lagging about 20 minutes behind (better than normal)

4:58
Joe: Would you rather have peacock or faria in a redraft? What about a dynasty?

4:58
Brad Johnson: Peacock in both

4:58
Brad Johnson: I’m not a big believer in Faria yet

4:58
rustydude: Monty? Are you referring to Mike or Jordan?

4:59
Brad Johnson: Jordan, but I love Mike too

4:59
Harold: Just offered up this trade in a keeper league with an Indians fan
I give Lindor, Alonso, CarGo, Belt, & Bregman and I get Stanton, Matz, Knebel, and Carpenter

Who wins the deal?

5:00
Brad Johnson: Well, Lindor’s the best in the swap, but with pitchers involved it all comes down the categories

5:00
Brad Johnson: I’d hang onto Lindor though

5:00
Joe: What about quintana? Sell or hold?

5:00
Brad Johnson: Can you sell

5:00
Brad Johnson: go ahead if there’s a buyer, might be better to hope the peripherals win out though

5:00
Yuca Yuca: Would you do either Rivero ($6) or Knebel ($6) for Domingo ($12) in an NL only?  Values are for 2018

5:01
Brad Johnson: Yea, you can trade a closer for a slightly more expensive OFer.

5:01
Twoseamers: how bad is it if someone (30x dynasty) trades altuve for thames when he’s hot, then trades thames for Mallex Smith and Tommy Pham when Thames has cooled…   appears very reactionary and bad for the team long-term.  They are in the playoff running!

5:02
Brad Johnson: yea, they just lit a lot of value on fire

5:02
Brad Johnson: but Smith and Pham may help more for their playoff run

5:02
Brad Johnson: lightning round

5:02
OhNo: Odorizzi or Perdomo ROS (H2H points league)

5:02
Brad Johnson: ugh, Odorizzi

5:03
OBP-Wan Kenobi: Joe Ross vs. Brandon McCarthy–who wins?  And what are your thoughts on Ross ROS?





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LeeZee
Member
LeeZee

Thank you for this very informative tutorial. I see how you were able to arrive at a model that best predicts pitcher WAR by incorporating those variables that accounted for most of the variance i.e.,IP,SO,HR,BB. Please forgive my ignorance, but I can’t see where we can identify the actual model formula: WAR = -0.8 + 0.02 * IP + -0.13 * HR + -0.04 * BB + 0.02 * K using this analysis.

Thank you in advance.
Lee