I wanted to take a break from my Effective Velocity research, and so, in honor of Anthony Rendon, I decided to take a look at streaky hitters. Before this season, I did not have a perception of Rendon as streaky. But so far this season, he has produced 5 of his 7 total home runs, 7 of his 21 total runs, and 15 of his 28 total RBI in just two games. That’s insane. It may not mean anything in this case; however, it makes intuitive sense that some hitters would be more consistent than others. And beyond even the desire to roster consistent hitters over streaky hitters in weekly formats, I think it is at least worth exploring whether it is possible to identify hot and cold streaks as they are happening and make start-and-sit decisions with them in mind.

The first step toward that goal is defining what hot and cold streaks are. Rendon probably isn’t the best example of that. In general, I think of a hot hitter as one who produces well above his typical level of production for an extended period. As a starting point, I decided to look at players who produced a wOBA over seven consecutive games or more that was either 110 points above their seasonal line (hot) or 110 points below their seasonal line (cold). That 110-point threshold is fairly random, but it is based on the difference in the glossary markers for an excellent and awful player over a full season.

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Last week, I discussed five surprising American League starting pitchers sitting among the leaders in SwStk%. All of them had enjoyed surging versus 2016. Today, I’ll discuss pitchers on the other side of the coin, surprises toward the bottom of the SwStk% leaderboard, all of whom have suffered declines compared to last season.

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It’s a gross weather day. More on that below the fold.

AGENDA

1. The Most Exciting Player
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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After in depth statistical analysis using unique metrics that can only be found within the inner workings of the Fangraphs private vault. The Roto Riteup has concluded that Billy Hamilton is fast. #Analysis

.@BillyHamilton is ALWAYS in scoring position. pic.twitter.com/2LcyxakkES

— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2017

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It would appear the Padres may have a new closer.

With San Diego taking a 6-5 lead in the top of the eighth inning against the Mets, manager Andy Green sent Brandon Maurer out for the bottom of the inning. It wasn’t a two-inning save for Maurer, who had allowed at least one run in each of his last three appearances and a total of 10 runs over his last five outings covering 3 2/3 innings. Instead, Brad Hand came out for the ninth. Read the rest of this entry »

5/24/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Eight Buy Low Bats

• Rougned Odor (6:24)
• Carlos Gonzalez (16:10)
• Andrew McCutchen (21:30)
• Maikel Franco (26:00)

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Note: I am using velocities from BrooksBaseball.net which has corrected their values from the 2016 to 2017 transition.

Dylan Bundy -2.5 mph (2016 FBv: 94.8mph, 2017 FBv: 92.3 mph)

Bundy’s decline is being obscured by the fact he relieved in 2016. Owners can see the 2017 drop and chalk it up to the normal velocity difference between starting and relieving. After removing the 2016 relieving values, his velocity is still down 2.5 mph.

For reference, here are his 2016 stats as a starter all of his 2017 ones.

Bundy’s approach and results are almost a textbook example of fastball velocity loss. The swinging strike rate on his fastball has dropped from 8.2% to 4.8% and therefore his strikeout rate dropped. Bundy realized his fastball isn’t the same, dropped its usage (61% to 50%) and relied on breaking pitches more.

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In the unlikely event that you follow me on Twitter dot com, you’re well aware of my…we’ll call it infatuation with Jake Lamb and his penchant for murdering baseballs. I’ve made no secret of it on here as well, which is why I went back and saw just how many times I had written about him in the last year, just to make sure that I wasn’t oversaturating the site with too much Lamb content. Luckily, I’ve only written about him once in 2017, so I feel comfortable discussing what has been an absolutely remarkable last month for the Arizona Diamondbacks third sacker.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a hot start on the offensive side, ranking in the top five in Major League Baseball in batting average, isolated power, and, more obviously, runs, while ranking eighth overall in on-base percentage. Lamb’s quick start is a heavy reason why, as he’s not only managed to duplicate his extremely impressive start from last season, but eclipse his output in numerous ways. This May has been something of a microcosm of the type of player that Lamb has shown flashes of becoming over the past calendar year.

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Throughout the season I have been and will to continue answer questions based on fantasy ethics and rules in this recurring piece. You may not always like the answers I give, but I hope that it is informative and makes you think about how you construct your leagues and play the games. Typically I do 4-5 questions per piece. You can send me more questions via email, JustinMasonFantasy@gmail.com, my twitter account, or by posting in my facebook group.

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Feeling the injury or underperformance blues? It’s your lucky day!

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