Surprises Among AL SP SwStk% Laggards

Last week, I discussed five surprising American League starting pitchers sitting among the leaders in SwStk%. All of them had enjoyed surging versus 2016. Today, I’ll discuss pitchers on the other side of the coin, surprises toward the bottom of the SwStk% leaderboard, all of whom have suffered declines compared to last season.

While these pitchers aren’t exactly at the bottom of the leaderboard as I suggested in the intro, they are all below the AL SP SwStk% average of 9.8%, after sitting well above it last year.

While we never wish for an injury, Cole Hamels landing on the disabled list with an oblique strain was actually a blessing in disguise for his fantasy owners. His average fastball velocity was well down, and his SwStk%, which amazingly had sat above 11% every single season in the league, tumbled down into the single digits. His trademark changeup, which always induced whiffs at a 20%+ clip, was only doing so in the mid-teens this time. I would think an oblique injury is sudden and not something a pitcher is pitching through that would hamper his results. So I would guess that oblique isn’t to blame for the sudden loss of strikeout ability. When he returns, if his strikeout stuff doesn’t and he still manages to allow just a couple of runs, sell, sell, sell.

At age 33, Justin Verlander posted the highest strikeout rate (and SwStk%) of his career. This, coming just two seasons after his lowest mark since 2006. Quite the turnaround! How much of that was sustainable as he battles the aging regression dragons this season? Nine starts in and the answer is none of it. His SwStk% is back down closer to his 2014 mark, which would be his two lowest marks since 2011. Amazingly, his fastball velocity is actually up, and even after making the new measurement technique adjustment, this appears to be his highest level since 2012, where he’s about on par with. And it’s about two miles per hour higher since he his a trough in 2014, the same year his strikeout rate collapsed.

So everything appears okay with his stuff, but his fastball’s SwStk% is back toward his career mark, rather than the career high double digit mark he posted last year. It’s always dangerous to bet on a fastball SwStk% spike to be repeated, especially for a pitcher in his 30s. I wouldn’t bet on much of an improvement on the SwStk%/K% front, but a bigger issue has been his control, which I won’t get into here.

Blake Snell was demoted to Triple-A a couple of weeks ago and this is why. Since his control hadn’t improved, he couldn’t afford to lose that whiff rate. His velocity was fine and pitch mix almost identical to last year, but his curve, which generated a 13.2% SwStk% last year, suddenly became beach ball-like that hitters rarely missed — its SwStk% plummeted to just 3.9% this year. Since his changeup was good and slider excellent again, there’s serious strikeout potential if he could find that curve. I still like him long-term, though we need to see some improvement on the control front, otherwise he won’t even make it back to the Majors.

Drew Pomeranz has dealt with arm issues once again, first during the spring, and again recently. So you just don’t know how much his health has played a role in the drop in SwStk%. Of course, you would have had no idea he was inducing far fewer whiffs if you just looked at his strikeout rate, which is just barely above last year and would represent a career best. He’s using his curve even more than he usually does, but it’s inducing whiffs at its lowest rate since 2013. So how is he still striking out hitters? It’s because he’s inducing foul strikes more than ever before. Sure, perhaps some of those could become called or swinging strikes, but more likely, many of these will be put into play. That’s going to hamper his performance. With a 4.97 ERA, you can’t do much as an owner, as things will get better, but I’m not a big fan here.

Talk about disappointment, Kevin Gausman has been one of the biggest so far this year, and it’s not only due to a 6.65 ERA, but his skills have deteriorated, en route to an awful 5.04 SIERA. He threw his slider more at the expense of his best pitch, the splitter, early in the season for some reason, but he’s back off that mix and is closer to his historical rates over his last six starts. The less often he throws that slider, the better, because it has been terrible at generating swings and misses, while the splitter has been just as excellent as always. Besides the down SwStk%, what has also hurt him has been a decline in foul strike rate to a career low, and that he’s simply throwing fewer strikes, at a career worst clip. The velocity is fine, so I have no explanation for his inability to make batters swing and miss, and especially for why his control has deserted him.