Bullpen Report: May 24, 2017

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May 25, 2017

It would appear the Padres may have a new closer.

With San Diego taking a 6-5 lead in the top of the eighth inning against the Mets, manager Andy Green sent Brandon Maurer out for the bottom of the inning. It wasn’t a two-inning save for Maurer, who had allowed at least one run in each of his last three appearances and a total of 10 runs over his last five outings covering 3 2/3 innings. Instead, Brad Hand came out for the ninth.

The lefty promptly loaded the bases with a single, a walk and another single, but he got out of the jam with two strikeouts and a flyout. Hand made his first save of the season an adventure, but there should be more save chances to come. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that there has been some trade interest in Hand. If Maurer’s recent struggles didn’t offer an incentive to make a change at closer, the opportunity to make maximize Hand’s trade value might have done the trick.

Wednesday’s rough inning aside. Hand has been brilliant this season, as he was in his 2016 breakout campaign. With a 12.1 K/9 ratio and a 53.6 percent ground ball rate, Hand may not only provide saves, but he should continue to help with strikeouts and ratios as well. Even though Green has yet to name Hand as the closer, he is well worth a pickup in standard mixed leagues.

The Nationals also have a new closer, though this development is far less surprising. Dusty Baker told reporters that Koda Glover is now the team’s closer, though he suggested as much in comments he made on Monday. Glover finished out the Nationals’ win over the Mariners on Wednesday, as he protected a four-run lead. There was no save, but he pitched a perfect frame with one strikeout.

Given a choice, I would rather have Hand than Glover. Given the merry-go-round that has been the Nationals’ closer situation, I’m not sure Glover has that much more job security than Hand, and he won’t likely be as helpful in strikeouts and ERA. Glover pounds the zone, but the 84.3 percent Z-Contact rate he carried into Wednesday’s game is merely ordinary.

Cody Allen was the only incumbent closer to blow a save on Wednesday, as he allowed two runs on three singles to give the Reds a 4-3 lead, which Raisel Iglesias protected in the bottom of the ninth. There should be no worries about Allen, who had not blown a save in his previous 13 attempts and now has two losses. Though he has been wild at times in the past, Allen has had good control of late, posting a 65.2 percent strikes-thrown rate over his last six appearances.

Jose Ramirez blew a save, too, but with Jim Johnson and Arodys Vizcaino both having worked each of the two previous games, he was presumably acting as the backup to the backup to the Braves’ closer. In his inning of work against the Pirates, Ramirez allowed two runs on three hits and a walk, sending the game into extra innings.

Ryne Stanek made his major league debut for the Rays just 10 days ago, but already he seems to be settling in as Kevin Cash’s primary setup option. He entered the eighth inning with a three-run lead on Wednesday against the Angels, and recorded three strikeouts along with a walk to Cameron Maybin. Oh, and the last two strikeouts came against Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. In 18 innings at Triple-A Durham, Stanek compiled a 35.7 percent strikeout rate and 14.8 percent whiff rate. With Alex Colome, who followed Stanek and nailed down the save against the Angels, mentioned as a closer target for the Nationals, it’s time to start stashing Stanek in deeper leagues as a potential future saves source.

Saves roundup: Fernando Rodney (12), Brandon Kintzler (12), Colome (12), Wade Davis (10), Igleisas (8), Santiago Casilla (7), Dellin Betances (4), Hand (1).

Other closer activity: Brad Brach, David Robertson, Addison Reed and Justin Wilson pitched in non-save situations.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
ARI Fernando Rodney JJ Hoover Jorge de la Rosa
ATL Jim Johnson Arodys Vizcaino Jose Ramirez
BAL Brad Brach Darren O’Day Mychal Givens Zach Britton
BOS Craig Kimbrel Matt Barnes Heath Hembree Carson Smith
CHC Wade Davis Carl Edwards Jr. Hector Rondon
CWS David Robertson Tommy Kahnle Anthony Swarzak Nate Jones
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen Drew Storen
CLE Cody Allen Andrew Miller Bryan Shaw
COL Greg Holland Adam Ottavino Jake McGee
DET Justin Wilson Alex Wilson Shane Greene
HOU Ken Giles Luke Gregerson Will Harris
KC Kelvin Herrera Joakim Soria Mike Minor
LAA Bud Norris David Hernandez Blake Parker Cam Bedrosian
LAD Kenley Jansen Pedro Baez Josh Fieldsn
MIA A.J. Ramos David Phelps Kyle Barraclough
MIL Corey Knebel Jacob Barnes Neftali Feliz
MIN Brandon Kintzler Matt Belisle Taylor Rogers Glen Perkins
NYM Addison Reed Fernando Salas Paul Sewald Jeurys Familia
NYY Dellin Betances Tyler Clippard Adam Warren Aroldis Chapman
OAK Santiago Casilla Ryan Madson Liam Hendriks Sean Doolittle
PHI Hector Neris Joaquin Benoit Pat Neshek
PIT Tony Watson Felipe Rivero Daniel Hudson
STL Seung Hwan Oh Trevor Rosenthal Matt Bowman
SD Brad Hand Brandon Maurer Ryan Buchter Carter Capps
SF Mark Melancon Derek Law Hunter Strickland
SEA James Pazos Tony Zych Edwin Diaz
TB Alex Colome Ryne Stanek Jose Alvarado Brad Boxberger
TEX Matt Bush Keone Kela Jeremy Jeffress Jose Leclerc
TOR Roberto Osuna Joe Smith Jason Grilli
WSH Koda Glover Shawn Kelley Matt Albers

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]





 

Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.

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BMac
6 years ago

For Hand’s first save, the homerun hero, Renfroe, dropped an easy fly ball, then dropped the ball when he tried to throw to 2nd. Somehow, scored a hit instead of a two base error, or two separate errors. Then the walk was all on Hand, his sliders overslud. Then Flores, Met’s lefty killer, hit a tweener groundball that would have gone for two if it was an inch either way. After Padres defense had already failed to catch the foul pop-up…

So now Hand decided to STOP trusting his defense, and struck out the next two guys. Good plan! Final out was a lazy fly to right. Mets broadcasters couldn’t understand how this LOOGY had just beaten them in a very devastating loss.

Maurer has been a bad closer (‘bad closer! go to your room’) for a short period that we refer to as 2017. Hand has been awesome for a much longer period, and is worth an add in mixed leagues for all his other stats (1 something ERA, 6 K’s per week, tiny WHIP). Making Hand the closer is the logical thing to do, lefty or not. But of course somehow this has become framed in the narrative of turning him into trade bait instead of the logical move for a manager who wants to win.

If he goes to the Nationals, he should close there, too. I assume they want to win there, right? Since he added the ‘Milleresque’ slider to his repertoire, he has been great.

3
MikeInNJ
6 years ago
Reply to  BMac

BMac, actually, the dropped fly ball by Renfroe came in the 8th inning on a Lagares liner off Maurer. Walker led off the 9th with a single. Duda had an excellent AB, laying off Hand’s sliders, and drew a BB. He did hit a foul pop off 3rd which normally would have been an easy out, but that’s the danger teams face when implementing a radical shift. Win some, lose some. Could the Flores grounder have been a DP if it were right at the SS? Sure…but it wasn’t. By the same token, IF there were 1 out instead of none, maybe the Mets send Walker and he scores rather than being held at 3rd resulting in a BS. Hand whiffed Granderson who can’t hit lefties. He then whiffed Rene Rivera, whose crazy hit streak is history and is now back to being Rene Rivera. Lagares then hit a lazy fly to right to end it. Hand got in trouble and was lucky to get out of it because he faced 3 weak hitters after the Mets loaded the bases.

5
Reggie Cleveland
6 years ago
Reply to  BMac

Has Maurer been bad or has Maurer been unlucky?

2
John Morgan
6 years ago
Reply to  Reggie Cleveland

Most likely he’s been unlucky. Both his FIP and xFIP are better than Hand’s, and both are excellent.

He’s been the victim of a 51.9% LOB and a .375 BABIP. Maurer has struggled most with men on base, running a .427 wOBA against with men on and a damning .482 wOBA against with runners in scoring position. He had that same problem last season, and has had something of that problem his entire career. Hand’s performance has trended the exact opposite direction with men on base. Does this mean anything? I do not know.

But Maurer had very little closer inertia and you can’t really blame a manager for making a move, even if the evidence to support his decision is incomplete. Last I read, SD’s manager has not “appointed” a new closer, and the long play for the Padres may be to shine up as many relief pitchers with closer experience as is practical in hopes of maximizing trade value.

In competitive leagues you can’t avoid nebulous closer situations, especially ones in which many of the component stats of the candidates are very good, but common sense dictates no one is likely to run away with the job, Hand is only a small favorite over Maurer, and over the next 20 IPs or so of either, it’s anyone’s guess who will pitch better; who will record more saves.

3
BMac
6 years ago
Reply to  John Morgan

When you’re rocking an ERA of 6.50, you are not having a good season. When you are consistently having a much higher ERA than FIP or xFIP, at a certain point, you have to believe the actual results and set aside the theoretical ones.

Maurer’s heat map shows he is throwing most of his pitches in the middle-lower middle of the strike zone. Hand is getting outs, as per his heat map, while avoiding the danger zone.

I think each of them have a say in their own luck in this case.

It’s frankly silly to even talk about continually losing games with a high ERA closer when you have other options.

0
KobraCola
6 years ago
Reply to  BMac

I agree that at a certain point you have to believe the actual results and set aside how advanced statistics say a pitcher *should* be pitching, but I doubt that point is after 19 IP, which is how many innings Maurer has pitched so far this season.

0