Jake Lamb’s Remarkable May & Continued Outlook

In the unlikely event that you follow me on Twitter dot com, you’re well aware of my…we’ll call it infatuation with Jake Lamb and his penchant for murdering baseballs. I’ve made no secret of it on here as well, which is why I went back and saw just how many times I had written about him in the last year, just to make sure that I wasn’t oversaturating the site with too much Lamb content. Luckily, I’ve only written about him once in 2017, so I feel comfortable discussing what has been an absolutely remarkable last month for the Arizona Diamondbacks third sacker.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a hot start on the offensive side, ranking in the top five in Major League Baseball in batting average, isolated power, and, more obviously, runs, while ranking eighth overall in on-base percentage. Lamb’s quick start is a heavy reason why, as he’s not only managed to duplicate his extremely impressive start from last season, but eclipse his output in numerous ways. This May has been something of a microcosm of the type of player that Lamb has shown flashes of becoming over the past calendar year.

Among Major League third basemen, Lamb currently ranks fourth among a group of 27 qualifiers with a 10.7 Off rating, trailing only Miguel Sano, Justin Turner, and Kris Bryant. That’s not bad company to be in, especially when you consider some of the names that he sits ahead of: Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, etc. Not only has Lamb been an offensive catalyst for the Snakes, but he’s right in the mix with the offensive elite at the position in a number of ways. He ranks eighth in batting average, fourth in OBP, fourth in isolated power, and sixth in park-adjusted offense. While his strikeout rate is up a touch, so is his walk rate, with the latter also ranking in the top five at the position.

The following are Lamb’s figures thus far in 2017, measured against his overall numbers from 2016:

	AVG	OBP	ISO	K%	BB%	wRC+
2016	.249	.332	.260	25.9	10.8	114
2017	.288	.384	.288	27.4	13.2	140

With Lamb, though, it’s important to mention his large tail off in the second half of last year in conjunction with any overall production from 2016. Those struggles in the second half of last season have been well-documented, but let’s take a look at how his first half of last year lines up with his output to this point in 2017:

	PA	AVG	OBP	ISO	K%	BB%	wRC+
1st Half 2016	329	.291	.371	.322	24.6	10.6	151
1st Half 2017	190	.288	.384	.288	27.4	13.2	140

What’s particularly encouraging about Lamb is that he’s managed to improve the approach ever-so-slightly while continuing to make hard contact. His contact rate is up about four percent, at 76.6%, while his overall Swing% is down just slightly (41.7%), as is his whiff percentage (9.6%). Those figures combined with a 39.3% Hard% that ranks fifth and a 8.0% Soft% that is the second lowest at the position have made Jake Lamb a terror for opposing pitchers thus far in 2017.

But let’s talk about this month of May real quick. Lamb took home National League Player of the Week honors in a week that saw him hit .412 and reach base at an even more absurd .565 clip over 23 plate appearances. And really, those numbers are kind of his entire month in a nutshell. While the numbers over the course of the month aren’t quite as absurd, he’s still posted a wRC+ of 172, while reaching base at a .429 rate over 84 plate appearances to this point. He’s gone for a .382 ISO and walked at a rate of 19.0%. He’s hit the ball hard over 40% of the time. When you’re putting the ball in the air as much as he is, while making that type of contact, good things are going to happen, as they have throughout the month.

When it comes down to it, while there are some issues in his game related to his punchouts and maybe some questions about his defense, this is just a guy who hits the ball really hard. The cool thing about this year? He’s doing it against lefties too:

Some may look at his second half slide from last year as a basis for concern that what he’s doing right now won’t last, as well as the impending humidor installation that I so blatantly failed to mention earlier in the year. As far as the former is concerned, there’s the health factor to consider. A hand injury was likely to blame for his falloff in the second half of the year more than anything, especially with his approach and contact numbers remaining relatively steady. And while power numbers might see a reduction, specifically in terms of balls hit over the fence, Lamb can still be an extra base weapon with his penchant for hitting the ball harder than most players at his position. Nonetheless, it’ll be interesting to see how the Diamondbacks are affected across the board once that humidor goes into effect at Chase Field.

It’s obviously difficult for me to be objective about Jake Lamb, but at the same time, how can you not be excited about this type of output on what is a pretty stout offensive team? There’s definitely a potential power decline to be wary of moving forward, once the humidor is in place, but as his approach continues to improve, something that isn’t talked about nearly enough, and he makes steadily hard contact on a daily basis, there’s still going to be plenty to like about his game moving forward.