Big news, ladies and gentlemen: you can now find average draft position data provided by FanTrax on both our Auction Calculator and Projection sites.
AUCTION CALCULATOR (click to go to it)
After you input your desired settings and generate projections, you will see ADP listed right next to the player’s position:
Some time ago I went through my database searching for batted balls that produce the greatest offensive benefit. I settled on a range of vertical launch angles between 21 and 36 degrees. This range of angles accounts for the majority of home runs and extra base hits, and are generally among the most valuable batted balls.
| BIP | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | SF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats | 88200 | 35672 | 8438 | 8330 | 1446 | 17458 | 2406 |
| % of Total | 19.5% | 22.5% | 8.2% | 26.2% | 41.5% | 84.5% | 50.7% |
| AVG | SLG | BABIP | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| .416 | 1.158 | .258 | .632 |
These are the most valuable balls, and this is, generally speaking you want to see batters maxing out balls on these angles and pitchers minimizing them. In the traditional sense, this range encompasses “fly balls”, as you would see reported on Fangraphs (FB%), but some sources consider balls hit between 20 and 25 degrees to be line drives. Either way, this is an important range. This isn’t ground breaking material, but you may not be familiar with it being described in terms of angles.
We know home run rate went up dramatically in 2016, at least in part due to an increased average exit velocity. However, this home run surge took place almost entirely for balls with a launch angle between 25 and 36 degrees. Balls hit above and below this launch window saw little to no increase. Alan Nathan wrote a relevant article which I encourage you to read. Read the rest of this entry »
Over the last several weeks, we’ve taken a look at available deep league options at catcher, first base, and second base. In this latest edition of Deep League Draft Targets, we move onto shortstop. Previous installments can be found below:
Deep League Draft Targets – Catcher
Deep League Draft Targets – First Base
Sometimes we know something is a bad investment, but there’s nothing we can do about it. Cars – especially new cars. Hideously expensive and they hemorrhage value as you sink more and more dollars into them. But with a few exceptions, you have to either buy one, waste a couple hours per day on buses, or live in the only U.S. city with a viable subway. So I pay to own a car even though I work 40 feet from my bed. I bought it for something like $15,000 a little over four years ago, and now it’s only worth half that. Soon I’ll have to perform expensive maintenance like replacing all the tires. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
After a short break to tend to family matters, let’s return to the comparison of my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts. A week ago, I identified six hitters I was more bullish on for stolen bases, so today, I’ll discuss the hitters I’m more bearish on. To ensure we’re comparing apples to apples, I extrapolated Steamer’s stolen base projections to the same number of plate appearances I’m forecasting for each player.
3/8/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Doug is on the phone so it’s phone-soundy, but that’s just the risk/pitfall of a phone call. It’s still quite listenable, especially because the content is lit. Yes… it’s lit.
Strategy Section: NL LABR Breakdown
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Early Average Draft Position is such an astounding thing, as typical and interesting draft tendencies are widely reflected in it. Rookies and inexperienced players being taken too high, quality performers being limited because of a smaller market, etc. Also, Josh Donaldson as the fourth third baseman on average? Come on. With that in mind, it makes sense to look at some of those ADP figures and examine who could be a potential sleeper in drafts as the month of March continues to barrel toward the regular season. Those identified as “sleepers” here are based primarily off of their ADP more so than name recognition.
Recently, those of us at Rotographs who share a specialized interest in Ottoneu released our dollar values for 2017. We finished this process last Friday with our rankings of SP and RP. Today I thought it would be interesting to see where I diverge from Chad and Justin, both in optimism and pessimism. Our values are different in that I ranked everyone based on what I believe their value to be for 2017, accounting for the trade value prospects posses. Neither Justin or Chad ranked prospects, however, so I have excluded them from this analysis. Beyond prospect, I knew there would be some divergences.
| Name | Team | Elig | Justin | Joe | Chad | C&J AVG | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | SP | $4 | $16 | $12 | $8 | $8 |
| J.D. Martinez | Tigers | OF | $28 | $33 | $23 | $26 | $8 |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | 1B | $35 | $40 | $30 | $33 | $8 |
| Alex Reyes | Cardinals | SP | $1 | $8 | $0 | $1 | $8 |
| Shawn Kelley | Nationals | RP | $13 | $8 | $18 | $16 | -$8 |
| Jose De Leon | Dodgers | SP | $12 | $6 | $15 | $14 | -$8 |
| Maikel Franco | Phillies | 3B | $14 | $8 | $20 | $17 | -$9 |
I did not expect to be the high man on Aaron Sanchez. I like him just fine, but wouldn’t consider myself to be a strong supporter. I guess I’m more optimistic than I thought. I want to focus on him today. Read the rest of this entry »
A lot was expected from Matt Harvey and the New York Mets starting rotation in 2016, but aside from the Norse God of Thunder, the season was a bit of a let down (to say the least). Having fully recovered from Tommy John Surgery, and a consequent missed season in 2014, Harvey missed the end of the 2016 season when he was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and opted for season-ending surgery. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, chances are baseball fans know what Tommy John Surgery is, and where the ulnar collateral ligament resides. A lot less is known about Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, so let’s dig in.
I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.
PREVIOUS EDITIONS:
BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +27 spots to pick 378
Gomez dethroned Neftali Feliz (+23), who was going for a three-peat as the biggest riser. Gomez was named the closer by manager Pete Mackanin instead of an open competition with Gomez, Joaquin Benoit, and Hector Neris. However, despite the jump, Gomez sits only 10 spots ahead of Benoit and is actually 140 spots behind Neris. The Phillies might be showing some confidence in Gomez, but the market isn’t following suit.