Market Watch: SBs Rising in Cost
I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.
PREVIOUS EDITIONS:
BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +27 spots to pick 378
Gomez dethroned Neftali Feliz (+23), who was going for a three-peat as the biggest riser. Gomez was named the closer by manager Pete Mackanin instead of an open competition with Gomez, Joaquin Benoit, and Hector Neris. However, despite the jump, Gomez sits only 10 spots ahead of Benoit and is actually 140 spots behind Neris. The Phillies might be showing some confidence in Gomez, but the market isn’t following suit.
BIGGEST FALLER: Sean Rodriguez | -24 spots to pick 352
Rodriguez is set to be out 3-5 months after a car accident required shoulder surgery. In fact, he had a torn rotator cuff, labrum damage, and a biceps tendon relocated per David O’Brien. Brutal.
BIGGEST FALLER (non-injury): Corey Knebel | -9 spots to pick 358
Rodriguez, Alex Reyes, and Homer Bailey are the three biggest fallers, but they’re all obvious given their health concerns. Knebel taking a backseat to Feliz is tanking his price and while I do like Feliz as a cheap second or third closer, handcuffing Knebel might be the move. The two aren’t that far apart over the last two seasons.
NEWCOMERS TO THE TOP 500: A.J. Reed at pick 486, Cody Bellinger at pick 495
I’m going to start including the newcomers each week. Seth Lugo was the only newcomer last week right at pick 500 and he has moved up four spots to 496 this week.
SURGING STARTERS
This could be just the beginning of Shelby Miller’s rise (+17 to 420) if he continues to look sharp in Spring Training. In his most recent start, he fanned six in three scoreless innings with 34 strikes out of 44 pitches. His average pick will take a while to catch up, so keep an eye on his min pick (+96 to 233) for a better idea of what you will have to pay for Miller. A min pick could be just one random spike, but looking at the pitchers in that pick 233 range, I can see Miller fitting in with this group: Blake Snell, Joe Ross, Garrett Richards, Ian Kennedy, Jharel Cotton, Ivan Nova, and Hisashi Iwakuma.
Miller was a big favorite of mine last year as was the third-biggest mover among starters, Michael Wacha (+11 to 366). Both had horrific, injury-shortened seasons, but the low cost of re-investment has them firmly on my radar again in 2017. Even if they continue to move up the board, they are unlikely to move higher than around pick 250 overall, which is still a mid-teens investment I have no problem making.
Sitting between Miller and Wacha is Robert Gsellman (+14 to 347), who is getting a massive bump after the bad news on Zack Wheeler’s elbow (0 movement at 413). There was already some sleeper love for Gsellman, but now that he is likely to break camp as the fifth starter, he is on the radar of many more fantasy managers now. The deGrom lookalike comparison doesn’t stop with the hair, he showed skills and an arsenal comparable to his more established teammate. Even while acknowledging that his 44.7-inning sample isn’t all that useful, Eric Longenhagen still slotted him as their 2nd-best prospect.
James Paxton (+5 to 178) continues to inch up with jumps of 5, 3, and 5 the last three weeks. His min pick has held firm at 109, but I think his ADP will settle around 150 by the end of draft season. The market is starting to show some confidence in a few other high-upside risk arms after seeing them on a mound (or at least reading about it): Aaron Nola (+4 to 206), Lance McCullers (+3 to 175), and Garrett Richards (+3 to 247).
A GROWING NEED FOR SPEED
Looking at guys taken pick 250 or earlier, speed seems to be a growing premium. Four of the six biggest movers are known for their base running: Jarrod Dyson (+10 to 238), Jose Peraza (+7 to 125), Keon Broxton (+4 to 182), and Rajai Davis (+3 to 200). I’m not a fan of the speed-only guys, so I just won’t end with Dyson anywhere. He has never been able to turn his speed into a batting average boon with last year’s .278 being a career-best. More playing time could add some steals, but if it’s comes against lefties, it could make his average even worse. He’s a career .231 hitter versus southpaws.
The eighth biggest mover in that group is Tim Anderson (+3 to 162), another speed asset. I’m not sure what to make of him. He hit .283 with 9 HR and 10 SB in 99 games last year in addition to a .304/4 HR/11 SB effort at Triple-A for 55 games. He has a wide-open path to a full season of playing time, which no doubt adds to the excitement. The power is my biggest question as I think we could see just another 9 HR in a full season work, but he hit .301 with 38 SBs per 600 PA in the minors so it could be something like .275/9 HR/30 SB in his first full season. I just can’t get amped about him, though, maybe Eno can convince me when we discuss his $20 purchase of Anderson from Saturday’s LABR auction.
INJURED DAVIDS
News of David Price’s (-3 to 48) elbow trouble has already made its way into the NFBC bloodstream and despite some positive news that he won’t require Tommy John surgery (at least not yet), I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to drop a few more rounds. His max pick soared 36 spots to 102 and I think he’ll regularly go in the 75 to 90 range where Cole Hamels (83), Masahiro Tanaka (89) and Zack Greinke (97) usually go.
David Dahl (-2 to 94) was originally said to have a back issue, but now we’ve learned it’s a stress fracture of his sixth rib (no, not the sixth!!) and he’ll be reevaluated in a two weeks per Thomas Harding. Speculation now suggests he could start the season on the DL. I was on the Dahl train as a power-speed guy in Coors, but this definitely has me moving him down my board. Gerardo Parra (+3 to 427) stands to benefit from this news and he costs virtually nothing coming off his worst season ever (56 wRC+). Dahl went for $20 at NL LABR and Parra was $5. I’ll be eyeing Parra on the cheap in NL leagues and even in deeper mixers (more than 10 teams).
I think part of the Tim Anderson hype is his relative newness to baseball. Isnt he a late comer to the game? Between that, the playing time opportunity, and his athleticism, even if the stats don’t back it up I believe thats the source of excitement. What if he has20hrs/30sb based on his full season projection??
Also, any specific reason you’re so not amped about him, as you say?
No I can’t really pinpoint it, tbh, which is why I’m not vehemently against him and open to hearing the case for TA.
The discipline rates are terrible, and have been throughout his entire minor league career. The numbers have always only been respectable because of unsustainably high BABIPs. And last year’s .375 is no exception.
He had the worst BB/K ratio of any player with more than 400 PA last year, and his track record shows no reason for optimism. He’ll give you a little bit of pop and a little bit of speed, but he’ll kill you in average and on-base.
I have heard most of these negatives, but I’ve also read and see from a cursory view of his BBs and Ks in his game log that he did change his approach, with half of his BBs coming in the last month and cutting down his Ks. Hes so fast that the BABIPscmight be real.
That’s a fair point. I don’t think his BABIP is coming down to .300, but even .340 or .350 would be a problem. And a random blip to .300 one year would make him unrosterable.
The highest career BABIP among full-timers since 2010 is in the .360 range (Votto, Trout, Marte). So that’s his BABIP ceiling.
He’ll need to make a lot of improvements in plate discipline or power to make up for even a small dip, I think.
Thanks for the article! I’ve noticed that NFBC seems to place a premium on speed: Players like Villar, Gordon, and Hamilton are going around 20 picks higher than in, say, Yahoo.
Is this an instance of the casual players lagging behind the competitive players when it comes to the value of the stolen base? Or is this driven by some other feature of NFBC (say, the deep player pool)? Thanks!
The biggest difference is that NFBC leagues bar trading so you have to get your steals at the draft or hope some pop up on the wire which you’ll then have to pay your FAAB resources for and likely at a relatively high cost unless you happen to jump on them early.
In trading leagues, you can see where you stand for a few months and then trade for a Villar, Hamilton, or Gordon and wind up getting 6-8 points in the standings just from a few months of those guys.
Also keep in mind that the NFBC ADP is made up of a majority of DC leagues (Draft Champions) at this point in time (100 DCs out of 134 last I checked). Not only can you not trade, there is no FAAB. So everything is about the draft.
Also the ADP is slow to reflect the changes in baseball news in the NFBC at this time of year. Because the new data is added only when a draft is complete. It often takes anywhere from 2-4 weeks for a DC draft to finish.
These effects are increasingly muted as we approach opening day and the live draft frequencies ramp up.
I am surprised AJ Reed is going ahead of Cody Bellinger. Bellinger has OF eligibility, which he probably will retain. Neither of them has a starting role currently, but Bellinger almost certainly will earn a starting role at 1B or OF by next spring.
this is redraft data
Great series. Is there a way pull the latest 5 or 10 NFBC drafts? May be cleanest way to see current market values
Unfortunately no. I just have to pull the data each week manually and run it through my Excel, but I’m not even sure exactly how many leagues are added to the count each week.
Re: Dahl, is injuring the sixth rib worse than the others or did Paul make a joke that went over my head?
I made a joke… or tried to… bc citing the exact rib number seemed weird to me. Maybe it is markedly worse and I’m a clown but I was def making a joke
Love this series, Paul. Quick question – 10 team NL Only H2H Points league. Without getting too detailed on the mechanics, we have an odd minor league keeper setup where a player demoted in 2016 may be kept in one of four minor league slots for 2017. I’ve got Miller, Brandon Drury, and Kolten Wong who could qualify. I’ve also got a couple “real” minor leaguers – Eloy Jimenez, Albies, Luke Weaver, and Winker. Without getting into the minutia of the points (pitchers score more than hitters) – which four of those seven (Miller | Drury | Wong | Eloy | Albies | Weaver | Winker) would you keep?
Not to nitpick but Miller’s last start was 2 2/3, 6 ER, 1 K
He hadn’t made it when this was written.