Deep League Draft Targets – Shortstop

Over the last several weeks, we’ve taken a look at available deep league options at catcher, first base, and second base. In this latest edition of Deep League Draft Targets, we move onto shortstop. Previous installments can be found below:

Deep League Draft Targets – Catcher

Deep League Draft Targets – First Base

Deep League Draft Targets – Second Base

Much like second base, 2017 appears to be a banner year for shortstop. Perusing the names finishing atop the position last year reveals not just great depth but also youth and well-rounded production.

 

2016’s top 15 shortstops by WAR are, on average, considerably younger than their counterparts at other positions. In fact, the next youngest position is third base, where the top 15 sport an average age nearly two and a half years older than the pups playing just a few feet to their left.

Initially, I assumed the age discrepancy had more to do with selection bias; specifically, that the position inherently demands younger and more physically capable players and therefore while we appear to be in a golden age for shortstop, it’s not any younger than normal. But a quick visit to our FanGraphs leaderboard reveals that the position is actually younger than at any point since 1987. In other words, dynasty league players can wait a few extra turns before grabbing a shortstop since youth is sure to be available.

The position is also far more well-rounded and by some measures more productive than any other, at least from a fantasy perspective. Not only did the top 15 shortstops outpace their counterparts in HR + SB last season, they did so with a much more even distribution of speed and power, as illustrated in the graphic below.

 

The 0.67 SB-to-HR ratio among top shortstops was the highest at any position. This is particularly important in this day and age when speed is at a premium. In previous seasons, when shortstop was much shallower, managers often reserved the position for one-dimensional speedsters. Now however, it’s realistic to covet both power and speed out of the position up and down the top 15.

But deep league managers looking for dual threats at short would be wise to pounce early as they disappear quickly after Marcus Semien at #15. Fortunately, there are still plenty of strong options available late who combine guaranteed playing time with either power or speed. Here are a couple to consider.

 

Asdrubal Cabrera

That a shortstop who just hit 23 bombs on his way to a 119 wRC+ is going as late as Asdrubal Cabrera is, is a testament to depth and recent power development at the position. As of now, Cabrera is the 19th shortstop off the board in NFBC drafts and going 275th overall. Make no mistake, 2016 was a career year for Cabrera and we shouldn’t expect a repeat. That said, we also shouldn’t presume a disappointing return to his previous levels of production either.

Cabrera’s career-high 14% home run-to-fly ball percentage was accompanied by his best hard-hit rate ever and one of his highest pulled-fly ball percentages in years. His .194 isolated slugging percentage also represented an apex. Now, ESPN’s Home Run Tracker classified 11 of his 23 homers as “Just Enough,” a much higher percentage than average. So, while we shouldn’t lose sight of the improvements Cabrera made to his batted ball profile, we also can’t ignore the park he plays in. As a result, it’s reasonable to discount a few of those “Just Enough” home runs.

Still, we can live with a few less than 23 as Cabrera’s hit tool took a step forward as well. While he’s never been one to strike out egregiously over the course of his career, the 31-year old switch hitter chased less often in 2016 than at any point since 2012. He improved significantly against both righties and lefties and made much more frequent contact in the zone. And his career high .310 BABIP appears earned, at least according to Alex Chaimberlain’s xBABIP equation. In other words, even if he gives back a few homers, the gains he made with respect to batting average appear real.

Unfortunately, Cabrera’s history of lower-body injuries also presents some risk. While it’s safe to say his days of double-digit steals are behind him, Cabrera spent time on the Disabled List in 2016 with a strained patella tendon. In 2015, a strained hamstring cost him a couple weeks and in 2013, it was his quads. Aside from the requisite recovery time, lower body injuries impact a player’s ability to drive the ball and hit for power and as such represent a particularly impactful risk for Cabrera. Given that he’s averaged 574 plate appearances over the last four seasons, I don’t want to overstate the risk but it’s worth noting, even at 31, that Cabrera is starting to look a little long in the tooth for such a demanding position.

 

Tyler Saladino

In an effort to duck the massive blowback that typically follows moves involving players of his caliber, the White Sox waited until right before the weekend to announce they cut Canada’s answer to Ryan Lochte, Brett Lawrie. While the timing of the move might have thrown The New York Times and Washington Post off the scent, they couldn’t pull a fast one on Alex Chamberlain. Just one business day later, Alex was all over it. Also, a tip of the cap to reader, Jonathan Sher, who appears to possess the power of premonition.

Armed with second base, third base, and shortstop eligibility, Lawrie’s beneficiary, Tyler Saladino, is exactly the type of player we look for in deep leagues. His real-life versatility affords playing time opportunities and subsequently the counting stats that go with it despite clear holes in his ability. He’s not going to win any batting titles, his power is on the wrong side of tepid, and he hits far too many ground balls.

But he runs, having swiped 11 bags last season and 19 in total over a brief Major League career. At times, Saladino lit up the base paths in the Minors, stealing 39 bases in 2012 and 33 in 2015. And he very well could do it again, which in today’s environment is undeniably valuable. While I like his potential to provide value on the bases in light of Lawrie’s departure, Saladino will undoubtedly have to do better than the 68% success rate he posted in 2016 to make good on that potential. For reference, league average was 72% last season.

Saladino could potentially add value in OBP leagues, where his 10.9% career Minor League walk rate hints at additional upside. Even in batting average formats, more walks equal more opportunities to score runs and steal bases so just a modest return to his previous levels of patience should be welcomed with open arms. But can he get there?

In 573 Major League plate appearances since 2015, Saladino’s walk rate sits at an uninspiring 4.4%. And nearly across the board, his plate discipline metrics are on the wrong side of league average. He chased more, swung at strikes less, and fell behind more frequently than the league. His one saving grace was a strong 7.7% swinging strike rate. And while I’m a big fan of hitters who can make contact, a more stringent batting eye would go a long way to alleviate concerns over the weak (though consistent) contact that Saladino generates.

In the end, I suppose this is a rather tepid endorsement of Tyler Saladino, as I’d much rather target a shortstop in the 15-20 range. Even if all goes right and he pops 10-12 homers, that doesn’t really play these days except in the deepest of leagues. Rather, his speed, path to playing time, and the possibility that he recovers some semblance of his Minor League patience, makes Saladino an interesting middle infield option in deep and AL-Only formats.