Around this time of year when trade season starts open up in earnest, you consistently hear one maxim: buy-low, sell-high. It’s the tried-and-true method of trading and is ideal for what I hope are obvious reasons. However, it’s a lot easier said than done, particularly in the internet age of fantasy baseball. The statistical revolution and internet have colluded to equip all fantasy managers with any amount of data they desire about their players. You will still see lopsided deals, but outside of blatant cases of collusion, a deal that you deem as lopsided is still just a difference in player valuation.
The market inefficiency is in buying-high (I would be much more cautious with the inverse, but there could also be a market to exploit by selling low). Given how often fantasy managers are looking to sell high, there is a larger pool players to choose from and of course there is also more willingness to move them which adds to the likelihood of a deal getting done instead trying to pry someone your leaguemate wasn’t looking to sell in the first place. Buying high is easier, but it can be tricky (You don’t want to get smoked, but we’re talking buying-high, not buying-highest. you should never buy-highest… in any sense of the word). However, some players are seen as sell-high candidates while having a good shot at maintaining a high level of production and their price won’t always be commensurate with said production making them the ideal buy-high candidates.
Here are five such candidates:
John Jaso: The hang up with Jaso is that he only has first base eligibility and the power-hitting focus at the position leaves Jaso coming up short. His career high of 10 HRs came back in 2012. While he does lack the power to carry first base, he is an interesting corner infielder or utility as a high batting average hitter atop a proficient lineup. Plus, let’s not completely sleep on the fact that he has hit three homers, putting him on pace to crush his previous high.
He’s pacing for 14 more while the projections see 6-10 more (6 for ZiPS, 10 for Steamer & Depth Charts). Above all else, he needs to stay healthy, something that has been a career-long challenge as he’s never cleared 110 games played. If the perfect world scenario plays out and he maintains this pace, he’ll be this year’s Logan Forsythe. I’d settle for this year’s Mark Canha.
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