Seven AL Starting Pitchers Inducing More Whiffs

When I analyze a starting pitcher’s strikeout rate spike, I want to see that it’s driven by an increase in swings and misses induced. It could come from other avenues — a higher rate of strikes thrown or more called or foul strikes. But in my eyes, the most believable way to sustain that strikeout rate surge is by generating additional whiffs. So below are the seven American League starting pitchers that have increased their SwStk% marks the most compared to last season.

AL SP SwStk% Surgers

Name	2016 SwStr%	2015 SwStr%	Diff
Chris Tillman	10.9%	7.1%	3.8%
Wade Miley	10.8%	8.3%	2.5%
Steven Wright	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%
David Price	14.1%	11.9%	2.2%
Drew Smyly	13.4%	11.4%	2.0%
Nate Karns	11.2%	9.2%	2.0%
Matt Moore	11.9%	9.9%	2.0%

Chris Tillman has endured a rather rocky career. After three straight stints in Baltimore with an ERA above 5.00 from 2009 to 2011, he finally enjoyed some success in 2012, as his fastball velocity jumped to what remains a career high, propelling his strikeout rate upward. He then continued to post solid results, though with mediocre peripherals, and then his fortunes faded last year when his ERA nearly hit 5.00.

After many gave up on him, he has increased his fastball velocity, and is throwing his cutter more frequently at the expense of his fastball. The cutter is generating whiffs like never before, his four-seamer is tied for a career high SwStk%, and suddenly his slider has become elite at getting swings and misses. Every pitch, with the exception of his changeup, has generated a better SwStk% than his career average. Whether it all comes from improved velocity, I don’t know, but it means his floor is higher now since he’s not just leaning on one pitch to drive that SwStk%.

Even with the uptick in strikeout rate, he still owns just a 3.87 SIERA, which is essentially stream material in shallow mixed leagues, but I’d imagine his walk rate improves a bit. I’m still not willing to buy all the way in given his history of soft skills, but this might finally be the year his skills actually support a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA.

This is the first time that Wade Miley’s SwStk% has jumped above 10%, but his strikeout rate hasn’t budged all that much. Sure, it represents the second highest mark of his career, but it remains below average and only a bit better than last year. Unlike Tillman, Miley hasn’t made any drastic changes in pitch mix, aside from a couple of more secondary pitches rather than his fastball. However, his four-seamer is at its highest SwStk% of his career (save for his 2011 debut), while both his changeup and slider have been whifftastic. It hasn’t gained any velocity, but looking at the vertical pitch location at Brooks Baseball, it seems as if he’s throwing it higher in the zone than ever before, which we know is good for whiffs (though bad for ground balls). I don’t know if this is a new strategy or just randomness over a small sample of starts. He should eventually be an asset in AL-Only leagues.

Who would have ever guessed that 41.1 innings in, Steven Wright would own a 1.52 ERA over six starts? Knuckleballers don’t play by the rules, though even they are going to regress from a .219 BABIP. His knuckler has been better than ever, inducing swinging strikes 12.7% of the time. That’s just a touch worse than R.A. Dickey’s during his 2012 Cy Young campaign.

Boy, has this been a strange year for David Price or what?! All this talk about a mechanical issue that has led to a bloated ERA, and yet, both his strikeout and SwStk% rates are at career highs. Huh? Something doesn’t seem right. If your mechanics are off and causing you to lose velocity, and give up hits galore, then how is it also leading to more swings and misses and strikeouts? Please, someone explain this to me, because I’m simply at a loss. It doesn’t need to be said, but if the Price owner in your league is now valuing him at any less than what he did in the preseason, pounce.

So much for a shoulder injury sapping Drew Smyly’s velocity and strikeout potential. Instead, both his SwStk% and strikeout rate are at career highs, and his fastball is its fastest since 2013. All tree of his primary pitches have generated SwStk% marks in the double digits, with an elite four-seamer and cutter. Given the philosophy the Rays instilled in Smyly after acquiring him that Jeff Sullivan shared several weeks ago, he seems legit.

Nate Karns has enjoyed increased velocity and has thrown his curve significantly more and his change a bit more, all at the expense of his fastball. That’s usually a formula for more strikeouts and that’s exactly what has happened. Not only that, but his change is inducing far more whiffs than last year, while both his fastball and curve remain pretty meh. I’m not sure why he continues to have home run problems, but his high LOB% is offsetting those issues for the moment.

Matt Moore’s velocity is the best since 2012, he’s throwing strikes at an acceptable level, and his SwStk% is at its highest mark ever. Surprisingly, this is the first time his overall skills package has led to a sub-4.00 SIERA. I doubt he’s maintain a sub-8.0% walk rate, but his HR/FB rate and BABIP luck will turn and he’s going to be a positive contributor in even shallow mixed leagues.