Bullpen Report: May 11, 2016
• With Shawn Tolleson unavailable this afternoon, Sam Dyson picked up the save with a clean ninth inning. If it wasn’t clear enough, this solidifies Dyson has the second in line behind Tolleson, which could be important as the latter has not been at his sharpest so far in 2016. Tolleson’s 5.40 ERA and 6/4 shutdown/meltdown ratio are ugly, but the 3.67 xFIP isn’t all bad. His fastball velocity is right where it’s been in the past, but the swinging strike rate is down a few ticks, which is also noticeable in the strikeout rate. While Dyson’s raw stats (2.25 ERA) have been better, his 3.62 xFIP is almost identical to Tolleson’s. Dyson has also had the same pattern of similar velocity but somewhat suppressed stuff in the early going. Tolleson should be back on the bump for the next Texas save opp, but speculators (or Tolleson owners looking for a handcuff) should hold onto Dyson, as it’s not quite a green light situation. However, this doesn’t seem like one of those setups where a pitcher head and shoulders better than the incumbent is waiting in the wings, so don’t go out of your way to fret too much about pen turnover here.
• Jake McGee tossed a 1-2-3 ninth, and the outing lowered his already sterling xFIP to… 5.55. Credit where credit is due, the lefty has looked slightly better as of late, but his velocity remains well off what it was a couple years ago in Tampa. He’s getting next to no whiffs this year, either, even though he’s throwing his offspeed stuff (changeup curveball and slider) about 3x more frequently than his career averages. As talked about previously in the BR, there isn’t an obvious speculative add here, although Jason Motte and Miguel Castro threw bullpen sessions last week and seem (barring setbacks) to be inching towards minor league rehab stints (Motte actually headed out on one today) and possible arrivals at Coors in late May/early June. Castro is certainly the better pitcher at this point in time, but Motte does have the proven closer(TM) tag, so both could be options if McGee doesn’t magically find his stuff at altitude.
• Not going to spend too much time harping on the Reds, but Tony Cingrani (who had gotten the team’s last two saves) was used with a lead in the 8th inning today (implying Ross Ohlendorf is the de facto closer). Of course, Cingrani blew the save by giving up a homer to Josh Harrison. Not to be outdone, Ohlendorf took the loss by allowing a run (albeit unearned) in the ninth. I’ll flip the grid back to Ohlendorf for now, but it’s pretty much a deep burgundy dumpster fire right now. Maybe we should get #FreeJumboDiaz (46% in AAA, almost a negative FIP) trending. PS: those in my 16-team NL-only and 24-team leagues, I’ve already scooped up Diaz, so don’t bother hawking the wire.
• On the blown save front, Luke Gregerson’s issues led to a 16 inning game in Houston. His rates are fine and Ken Giles has been bitten by the bad luck bug, so no changes brewing here. Likewise, Santiago Casilla took a BS. Traditionally, I haven’t been a Casilla fan, but with Sergio Romo on the shelf and Hunter Strickland not quite being as lights out as usual, Casilla has the best rates in this bullpen and has a firm grasp on the stopper role. Romo’s replacement, Derek Law, has looked pretty good so far and is worth a snag in holds leagues (24% K%, 2.62 xFIP).
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Gavin Floyd has at least temporarily overtaken Drew Storen as the 8th inning guy in Toronto.
Based on what??? Storen pitched the 10th before him in a tie game yesterday?
Based on Storen being a dumpster fire and Gibbons realizing he can’t use Storen in high-leverage situations anymore
Based on my following the team on a daily basis? Osuna was unavailable, so the fact that Storen was used before Floyd (who was being held back for a possible save opportunity on the road) actually proves my point.
But if you don’t believe me read this:
http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/177269194/gavin-floyd-pitches-scoreless-setup-inning
If Storen turns things around he’ll likely get the 8th back, but Floyd is clearly the go-to guy for now.
If someone where to happen long-term to Osuna, I’d argue it’s almost certain Storen would get next crack at the gig. Storen was first in line as of a last weekend when Osuna needed time off for a groin issue. He had a bad outing where he allowed a couple baserunners a few days ago (both runners came around to score off Osuna), but Storen had a clean inning yesterday.
And while his ERA is ugly, he really had been bit by a high BABIP. xFIP/SIERA are much happier with him, although his K% is down a notch or two.
His BABIP might be high because of the non stop stream of rockets he gives up.
I keep coming back to this point, but there’s nothing that suggests that the Giants are as high on Strickland as everyyone else seems to be about him. There is nothing about his usage that should lead anyone to think he’s the heir apparent, which is especially a problem with Romo on the shelf – and therefore fewer options and a chance to shine. He’s pitched once with the lead in a hold/save situation in the last 3 weeks. Bochy has been going with Osich and Gearin in traditional setup situations ahead of Strickland; and it’s not even like Osich is being used situationally as a lefty – he’s being counted on for full innings. And there’s no way Lopez is anywhere near the top of the ladder either, so your grid as it relates to San Fran is basically entirely misleading.
Osich and Gearin have vastly outperformed their peripherals this year and both have sub-15% K%. Maybe we should take another look at usage here, but I don’t think either are viable SV candidates long term relative to Strickland whose xFIP/SIERA is still hovering right around the best mark in this pen with a 25%+ K%.
In case you haven’t noticed, xfip is not a statistic that the giants rely on to decide who should be the closer, and there is indeed zero indication that they see strickland as the eventual successor to casilla. At the same time, although it’s true that osich is being used for more than one batterat a time, it’s also true that bochy is intentionally bringing him into games at a point when he’ll face as many lefties as possible, and in fact he is much more effective against lefties.
Osich has incredibly good contact data, last year hos ld% was 9% and this year it’s 10%, and his hard% is also very low. Even though it terms of repertoire he’s completely different from casilla, relying on a 95mph 2seam fastball, the result of huge numbers of grounders and very weak contact is similar, so in this sense he fits the giants’ profile of someone to eventually replace casilla as closer. The problem is that with the decline of lopez the giants have only osich as a reliable antilefty guy for important situations so given bochy’s general thinking he’s not going to have him as closer. Guerrin has similar weak contact numbers but not as good as osich and in general he doesn’t seem to be good enough to be a closer.
To tell the truth i think law might be casilla’s eventually successor. His three-finger pitch (which people can’t agree if it’s a slider or a curve) looks like it could be devastating. The problem at present is that his fastball has absolutely no movement and just gets crushed. He’s just 25 and if he could develop something else he could be very tough.
But in general 3pt shooter is right, there is no question that bochy trusts osich more than strickland in important situations and that’s been the case since shortly after osich came up last year, even at times like the first few weeks this season when strickland really was very effective. Fo r relievers bochy doesn’t care about fip, it doesn’t matter what you think about this.
I’d echo what johnforthegiants says below. If you’re trying to make an objective argument for why Strickland SHOULD be the next up for closer, that’s a perfectly valid argument. But the grid should reflect what is LIKELY to happen, not what we think should happen. If Casilla went down tomorrow, it would be pretty odd for Bochy to suddenly tab a guy he hasn’t shown any confidence in over Osich, Gearin, and even Law, who have pitched in higher leverage situations than Strickland over the last month.
Willie Harris seems to be the one consistently pitching in the 8th inning (set up) role immediately in front of Gregerson at the moment, and is doing extremely well in that role. Obviously, the Astros eventually want to return Giles to that role, but he is still pitching earlier in the games at present. At the very least, wouldn’t Harris rate a mention over Neshek?
Indeed. Each of Harris’s last 5 appearances have been in the 8th inning. Seems like he ought to be in Houston’s “first” column. At least he ought to be on the grid.
Agree, Will Harris seems to be the best reliever in the Astros pen right now and has probably been the best one in the past two years. Don’t know why Harris isn’t getting the mention. Is it because he’s 31 years old? Its not like he’s a lefty or anything.
I might be reading too much into what he said, but based on Price’s comments on Monday, it seems like the Reds are going to use Ohlendorf and Cingrani based on matchups, rather than have one be “closer” and other “8th inning setup”. Of course, there is a very good chance that changes in the near future.
Oy. What an ugly mess. All these Reds RPs stink. Even Jumbo–who’s killing it in AAA as usual–isn’t as good as many think (hope? pray?) he is. Look at his 11 (!) years of MiLB work. Pretty uninspiring.
McGee developed a curve ball in the spring. He’s been using that pitch to counter the fastball at times.
Good catch. I actually meant to write curveball instead of change (always get the CU classification confused on PFX).
Strickland has been much better as of late – struck out 5 of his last 6 batters faced. Seems like a change has been made and he’s become lethal again. Anyone hear about something like that?
He has periods like this, for example he had one near the beginning of this year. They’re based on him consistently hitting low corners with his fastball. The problem is that he doesn’t seem to able to sustain this, his fastball doesn’t have enough movement to avoid trouble if he gets it up (this is where osich is more effective, he doesn’t get many strikeouts but his 2seamer consistently drops enough so that it’s hard to hit well even if he gets it up) and he can’t through his breaking pitches reliably for strikes. Strickland really needs another pitch to go to the next level.
There’s no change.
Thank you sir
What’s up with Cody Allen? His velocity is down except for one recent outing, but all of his peripherals have tanked. Is this guy hurt or lining up to have a bad year? Last year he started off terrible, but his peripherals were still in line. Do you prefer him rest of season to Gregerson?