The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 11

Agenda

1. Tanking: The Board Game
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Tanking: The Board Game

Goal

To lose as many games as possible in order to win the first pick of the draft and bundles of draft cash. 2-4 players.

The Players

The 7-24 Braves – If you want the easy route to victory, choose this possibly historically bad team. An even more popular starting choice than the color blue.

The 8-24 Twins – Volatility and poor management ensure an exciting roller coaster ride. The Twins may not be as bad as the Braves, but they play much tougher opponents.

The 13-20 Padres – They can’t hit worth a lick, they don’t pitch particularly well, but Fernando Rodney is always there to thwart your best laid plans. Instead of six blown saves, he’s yet to allow a run.

The 19-14 Phillies – Come from behind with the shockingly decent Phillies. The eighth best record in baseball is a long way from pick 1-1 even though they only have 22 players on their active roster.

The Twist

Shoot the moon by reaching the playoffs before anyone thought it was possible. Earn playoff money, sell out your 2017 season ticket packages, and laugh at your rebuilding opponents while you rake in the gold pieces.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Well, I finally won one of these so that’s something. My Gausman-Lester-Villar-Gutierrez-Grichuk set narrowly edged Happ-Lester-Hernan Perez-Castellanos by 0.2 points. While I’m in the top three on both leaderboards, it’s purely volume. I’m still down a few bucks overall.

We’re back on DraftKings today for their nine-game evening slate. Once again, we’re doing $2 and 30 users.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Seven games are early today. While Madison Bumgarner is always a smart choice when pitching at home, he sounds awfully risky against the powerful, lefty mashing Blue Jays. He’s still a justifiable choice. Just don’t be surprised if he flops.

Over his last three starts, Chris Archer’s ERA has dropped from 7.32 to 4.23. He’s held opponents to 11 hits, six walks, and 20 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. Think he might be back? The Mariners aren’t a terrifying opponent, but they do have some sneaky-good pop in that lineup.

Danny Salazar, another high risk, high reward stud, will face the volatile Astros lineup. Salazar hasn’t allowed more than four hits in a regular season start since 2015. The Astros are tied with the second highest strikeout rate in the league with the Padres (the Rays are slightly worse). Even better, he’s against Doug Fister. Easy win?

Speaking of the Padres, Kyle Hendricks draws them in the first match of a day-night doubleheader. Hendricks is no great shakes, but he should benefit from facing the Friars. Marcus Stroman is also of interest at AT&T Park. Too bad Bumgarner cancels him out.

Stack Targets: Chad Bettis, Colin Rea, Robbie Ray, Tyler Wilson, Phil Hughes, Fister, Mat Latos

Late: Nine games are late thanks to the doubleheader.

Noah Syndergaard is top dog of the evening crew. He has turned in a truly dominant outing since the last time he faced the Phillies (4/18). He was even mediocre against the Padres last week. That said, he’s an exceptional talent capable of breaking the DFS scoring system.

Jordan Zimmermann’s return to Washington is interesting – mostly because Max Scherzer is cheaper than him on FanDuel. Scherzer’s command has been a little off, but I’m not sure I’m staying away yet.

John Lackey is a smart pick against a fatigued Padres lineup. He should cut through them like a soft cheese. Rick Porcello should remain a viable choice at home against the Athletics. There aren’t many dangerous hitters in that lineup.

Jaime Garcia, Juan Nicasio, Wei-Yin Chen, and Jerad Eickhoff are all defensible picks. You have your choices tonight.

Stack Targets: Eric Surkamp, Chase Anderson, Jhoulys Chacin, Alfredo Simon, Matt Shoemaker

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim is with me with regards to Scherzer. He’s the top play today. Of course a projection system likes a pitcher who dominated in 2014 and 2015. Is he still the same pitcher? Syndergaard, Salazar, Michael Pineda, and Bumgarner round out the top five. Don’t ask me how Pineda snuck onto that list. He’s very nearly a stack candidate in my estimation.

Speaking of stacks, try the Coors game, Red Sox, Cubs (either game), Pirates, and Reds.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets

Pitchers to Start: Bartolo Colon probably won’t earn a win against Clayton Kershaw. He probably won’t even hit a home run. However, there’s a good chance he’ll turn in yet another quality start. Colon’s so predictably steady, yet his ownership is in the low-30s.

Also consider: Aaron Blair, Jimmy Nelson

Pitchers to Exploit: I still laugh every time I remember the Tigers paid Mike Pelfrey to pitch for them. But mostly I just wish he was still making starts for the Mets. They deserve each others. The Orioles should go to town at home tomorrow.

Also consider: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver

Hitters (power): This is probably my only chance to earnestly recommend Brett Wallace. He bats cleanup!!! for the helpless and hapless Padres against right-handed pitching. Jimmy Nelson isn’t a terribly difficult opponent. Wallace is hitting .217/.390/.370 in 59 plate appearances.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Chris Young, Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-soo Kim

Hitters (speed): Joey Rickard is typically bumped from the lineup whenever Kim starts. And I have a feeling tomorrow is a Kim day. If Rickard does get the start, he’s a solid leadoff man who has more speed than his one stolen base suggests. I wouldn’t run in front of those hitters either.

Also consider: Jon Jay, Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Anthony Gose

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.