A few belated bullpen notes from last night:

• Joe Smith is 4/5 on saves in place of Huston Street but is also supporting a mediocre 3.60/4.45/4.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Never known as a strikeout artist, Smith was usually around league average but has seen his strikeout rate dip to 15.5% this year. His job isn’t in danger but it’s worth noting that Fernando Salas saved his second game of the year last night, throwing a perfect ninth lowering his ERA to 2.29. That ERA will creep up as he likely won’t keep a .229 BABIP all year but if Smith falters, Salas could start seeing more ninths. Huston Street remains on the DL with an oblique injury and although he played catch last week, he’s still a few weeks away from a return but will regain the ninth once he comes back.

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I mean, it’s not that surprising. It’s the only outfield with a Giancarlo Stanton, which would be enough to elevate any outfield out of the cellars. It has a Christian Yelich, too, who hits the ball hard but had been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment, having failed thus far to live up to any kind of power potential he once had.

Still, the Marlins are the game’s second-best offensive outfield, per wRC+ (weighted runs created). That’s kind of surprising. I mean, we knew the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield, which currently ranks first, would be good. And we probably thought the Chicago Cubs’ outfield, with all its talent and depth, would generate solid offensive numbers, but they’re only 10th.

While it’s a feel-good story riding on the high of a finally-vindicated Marcell Ozuna, it doesn’t look entirely sustainable. But it doesn’t mean we can’t dream, and there are some reasons to be optimistic about the already-established Stanton and Yelich as well as the still-young Ozuna.

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Episode 158 – Writing on Both Ends of the Spectrum

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss the big baseball brawl, Francisco Cervelli taking an unfortunate foul tip, Chad Bettis being an option at times away from Coors Field, not being excited about Colin Moran, Brad barely missing Danny Valencia’s big game, sadly picking against Chase Anderson again, what to do with a slate full of aces, the Phillies not being as good as their record indicates, trying to figure out Chris Archer’s struggles, and Carlos Rodon’s very volatile matchup.

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Agenda

1. Statcast Era BABIP
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom, Justin, and Joe break down the latest big trade out of the Ottoneu Champions League, and then discuss some of the implications and general trade strategies at play that are relevant to all leagues.

Here’s a look at the trade in question. Tom’s team is “Greg Burned,” while Justin is “Chicago Whales.”

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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So we all know by now that batted ball distance correlates pretty well with HR/FB rate. It’s fairly obvious, as the further the batter hits the ball, the better chance it has of landing on the other side of the fence for a dinger. Adding in the two additional components that compose my xHR/FB rate equation increases the usefulness, but sadly that data is not available just yet. Yesterday, I discussed five hitters whose distances suggest dramatically higher HR/FB rates than have been posted. Today, I’ll look at the bottom of the distance boards and identify five hitters whose HR/FB rates are out of place, and should be lower, perhaps significantly so.

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Sliding into your DMs (and your RSS) like.

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5/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Rougned Odor vs. Jose Bautista redux to get Eno’s thoughts (0:00)

Strategy Section: Listener Grab Bag

• Rubby de la Rosa (16:30)
• Matt Andriese (29:10)
• Tim Lincecum (35:30)
• Tyler Duffey (39:55)
• Bullpen chatter (49:00)
• Garrett Richards (57:00)
• Marcus Stroman (59:00)
• Brett Lawrie (1:05:50)
• Travis Shaw (1:10:00)
• Brandon Drury/Chris Owings (1:14:20)

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• I am going to start with a report which just came out from the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery on UCL tears. Here is the conclusion:

MLB pitchers requiring UCL reconstruction do not pitch at higher velocities than matched controls, and pitch velocity does not appear to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction. However, MLB pitchers who pitch a high percentage of fastballs may be at increased risk for UCL injury because pitching a higher percent of fastballs appears to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction.

I agree with every aspect of the findings expect “pitch velocity does not appear to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction”. The problem with the study is that the difference was between pitchers with similar velocities (less than 1 mph difference). I would not expect a huge injury rate difference in pitchers throwing 91 and 92 mph. As I previously found, harder throwers do see an increase in Tommy John surgeries. Their velocity statement may be true under their limited conditions, but it isn’t stated as so. It is made to read like a major breakthrough, but it isn’t.

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My intrigue with Jimmy Nelson began over two years ago, when I first saw him pitch in Triple-A. Since then, the now-26-year-old has only gotten more interesting, as he’s made several significant adjustments in his quest to stick as a quality major-league starter. Back in May 2014, Nelson’s repertoire focused on the combination of his mid-90’s four-seam fastball and mid-80’s slider, with work-in-progress versions of a sinker and changeup. His delivery — especially his release point — was far from consistent, causing his command to be an irregular guest.

Of course, ironing out problems like this is what the term ‘player development’ is all about. In David Laurila’s interview with Nelson from last August, Nelson discusses smoothing out his delivery:

“It was a mechanical change. Instead of going over my head with my hands to start my delivery, now I just keep them in front and drop them down. That allows me to be more consistent and repeatable, and a lot more relaxed.”

Nelson’s repertoire and pitch usage saw even more adjustments over the last couple years than his mechanics. By the time he got the call to the majors in mid-July 2014, he was throwing more sinkers than four-seamers, a trend that continues to this day. Through his first 308 major-league innings, he’s throwing his sinker at a 40.4% rate, compared to 25.1% for the four-seamer.

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