The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 17

Agenda

1. Statcast Era BABIP
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Statcast Era BABIP

New-ish co-worker Andrew Perpetua spun up a new xBABIP based on Statcast data. For those interested in the technical details, the comments are a fascinating reminder that I’ve forgotten half I used to know. And if you don’t give a balls about the specifics, Perpetua includes a simple downloadable spreadsheet.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

It was a photo finish for Yancyeaton last night with less than four points separating his winning lineup from my fifth place roster. Damn myself for tinkering away from Francisco Cervelli (net +7 pts). This was Yancy’s first win in the TDG Invitational, but I’ve seen him doing work in Paul Sporer’s games. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re back on DraftKings for another $2, 30 teamer tonight. See you there.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Cleveland is doing their early thing again. /ignore

Late: The other 14 games are late, and boy is it a doozy of a contest. We have, in no particular order, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer versus Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Archer versus Marcus Stroman, and Cole Hamels. The latter three are probably on the outside looking in when it comes to usage tonight. Archer has the tough Blue Jays lineup while Stroman isn’t a strikeout guy and Hamels sometimes serves up homers.

Beyond the biggest names lie a plethora of tidy alternatives. Rick Porcello had yesterday’s date with Kansas City postponed. Jaime Garcia has the Rockies at sea level. Wei-Yin Chen could be quite valuable opposite the Phillies second-to-last ranked lineup. Kyle Hendricks is a solid foil to the Brewers lineup at Miller Park.

Guys who used to be reliable like Zack Greinke, Michael Pineda, and Dallas Keuchel are on the bump tonight too. And to top it all off, Juan Nicasio will face the very worst offense in baseball, the Braves, at pitcher friendly PNC Park.

In summary, my top picks tonight are Kershaw, Bumgarner, Chen, and Nicasio. All four are facing bad offenses.

Stack Targets: Chase Anderson, Mike Pelfrey, Jered Weaver, Yordano Ventura, Colin Rea, Phil Hughes, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Hahn, Aaron Blair, Wade Miley, Carlos Rodon

4. SaberSim Observations

There are bunch of really good pitchers and a couple clunkers. SaberSim agrees with me on that score. The Cubs are far and away the top stack, although I have no idea how one would go about fitting them around the best pitchers. It could be a day for fading the stud hurlers. Other stacks include the Orioles, Astros, Twins, Mariners, and Blue Jays.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Increased curve ball usage has led to more strikeouts for Jeremy Hellickson. He’s also been homer prone for the fifth straight season. Streaming his is a high risk affair with Giancarlo Stanton on the other side of the aisle. There’s potential for six shutout innings with six or more strikeouts. Or it could be a lot worse.

Also consider: Bartolo Colon, Nick Tropeano

Pitchers to Exploit: If Chris Tillman continues to pitch well tomorrow, I may have to admit that he’s genuinely improved this season. Tillman’s strikeouts have spiked this season due to an increase in whiff rate. However, a matchup against the Mariners at home is a tough pairing. The M’s lineup is loaded with platoon mashing bats.

Also consider: Tom Koehler, Ricky Nolasco, Justin Verlander, Martin Perez, R.A. Dickey, Josh Tomlin, Brandon Finnegan, Doug Fister, Jimmy Nelson, Chris Rusin, Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Nate Eovaldi, Ross Stripling,

Hitters (power): Amid a sea of solid, free power bats lurks Mike Napoli. The slugger is visiting Great American Ballpark, and he’ll have the platoon advantage against Finnegan. Also, the Reds bullpen is terrible.

Also consider: Tommy Joseph, Ryan Howard, Steven Moya, Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, John Jaso, Chase Utley

Hitters (speed): Did I mention the Reds bullpen is bad? Rajai Davis has an opportunity to offer both power and speed. Teams like to run against the Reds. They’re also not very success with just 20 steals in 36 attempts. Davis might not go wild on the bases in this one.

Also consider: Cesar Hernandez, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Nunez, Brad Miller, Jonathan Villar

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.