Bullpen Report: May 16(ish), 2016
A few belated bullpen notes from last night:
• Joe Smith is 4/5 on saves in place of Huston Street but is also supporting a mediocre 3.60/4.45/4.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Never known as a strikeout artist, Smith was usually around league average but has seen his strikeout rate dip to 15.5% this year. His job isn’t in danger but it’s worth noting that Fernando Salas saved his second game of the year last night, throwing a perfect ninth lowering his ERA to 2.29. That ERA will creep up as he likely won’t keep a .229 BABIP all year but if Smith falters, Salas could start seeing more ninths. Huston Street remains on the DL with an oblique injury and although he played catch last week, he’s still a few weeks away from a return but will regain the ninth once he comes back.
• If David Hernandez avoided a bad first outing this year, it’s possible he’d be racking up saves and strikeouts for fantasy teams right now. After a meaningless scoreless inning with two strikeouts last night, Hernandez has a 2.95 ERA and a fantastic 34.7% strikeout rate. He’s of course behind Jeanmar Gomez and Hector Neris for saves and it’s unlikely the Phillies keep up this pace but he’s still a source for ratios, a few holds and strikeouts, particularly in deep or NL-Only leagues. Since his first outing Hernandez has a 1.47 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 18.1 innings pitched. Not bad.
• Pedro Baez entered last night’s game in the seventh and gave up four hits, a walk and three earned ballooning his ERA to 4.86. In spite of last night’s blow up I would still expect Baez to pitch in high-leverage innings but Chris Hatcher and his 5.51 ERA has been entering games in the fifth and sixth of late. I’m keeping Baez as is on the grid but moving Joe Blanton ahead of Chris Hatcher for the time being. Kenley Jansen has been fantastic this season but if he were to go down, there’s no clear option on who will close in LA. There hasn’t been a consistent and productive bridge to Jansen this year and I would expect the Dodgers to be in the market for a relief upgrade as we inch closer to the trade deadline.
• Quick Hits: Mark Melancon (12), Francisco Rodriguez (10) and Ryan Madson (11) all threw clean ninths to pick up saves. A.J. Ramos allowed one earned but otherwise secured the win for his 12th save on the year.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
What’s your read on the Texas situation? Tolleson is probably one bad outing away from turning it over fully to Dyson, yes?
Dyson has two of the last three saves (they say due to rest for Tolleson), he’s the better pitcher and he’s got better peripherals on the year. Seems about as hot as a seat can get right now, and I don’t see much reason not to be rostering Dyson everywhere.
Especially after tonight: Tolleson called on for the save with Texas down by one run and loads bases, then gives up a grand slam. Interestingly, Bush bridged the gap to the ninth.
My bad Texas was up by one run.
Salas is definitely second in line behind Smith. Smith nailed easy saves on Saturday and Sunday. I don’t see any reason they’d flip now, this is just a normal handcuff situation.
Couple of notes. Smith is pretty clearly the closer. The Salas saves were the following.
1. after Smith had thrown 4 out of 5 nights (5/16).
2. when Smith came in on the road for the bottom of the 8 when LAA was trailing to get work in (hadn’t thrown in a couple of days). LAA took the lead in the top of the 9th so Salas got the bottom of 9th after Smith had already pitched.
Also worth noting, Smith’s only BS was not “in place of Street” but rather an early season game where he pitched the 8th and gave up the lead which counted as a BS. He is actually 4 for 4 while filling in for Street which I think matters to a guy like Scioscia who doesn’t know what a FIP is.
Totally fair points. I’m also not trying to suggest that Salas is now the closer, I’ve made sure to keep Smith in the lead and it’s also remained green.
Salas is pitching better than Smith and has done well in the ninth when Smith has been unavailable. He’s 4-4 as you say, so thanks for that correction, but I thought it was worth noting Salas’ save so in case Smith has some struggles everyone would be slightly ahead of the curve.
How can you not address the Texas bullpen? Dyson has gotten the last two saves, and Tolleson got rocked on Saturday.
In a holds league, who would you rather own? Salas or Joel Peralta..
Which closer would you rather trade: McGee or Jeffress?
I think Jefress is pitching better but he’s more likely to be traded to a non-closer role, IMO.
Best case you trade Jeffress for something decent and then he gets traded, but McGee’s peripherals are kinda poopy to hold onto.
Sorry, no straight answers here.
Any chance Harris is next up in Houston?
At the risk of saying the obvious, that has got to be it for Tolleson.
Still showing Storen and Cecil behind Osuna?! Storen got bombed again tonight in a mop-up role and Cecil is on the DL. Floyd and Chavez are next on the depth chart.
I second the Harris up next in Houston comment.