Five Potential HR/FB Rate Decliners

So we all know by now that batted ball distance correlates pretty well with HR/FB rate. It’s fairly obvious, as the further the batter hits the ball, the better chance it has of landing on the other side of the fence for a dinger. Adding in the two additional components that compose my xHR/FB rate equation increases the usefulness, but sadly that data is not available just yet. Yesterday, I discussed five hitters whose distances suggest dramatically higher HR/FB rates than have been posted. Today, I’ll look at the bottom of the distance boards and identify five hitters whose HR/FB rates are out of place, and should be lower, perhaps significantly so.

Potential HR/FB Rate Decliners

Player	Distance (Ft)	HR/FB
Jason Kipnis	261	16.7%
Brock Holt	268	15.0%
Nomar Mazara	268	13.3%
Colby Rasmus	269	17.5%
Neil Walker	274	20.4%

Perhaps surprisingly, Jason Kipnis has never hit his fly balls all that far. His career best distance mark is just 287 feet, set in 2013, matching the only time he has posted a double digit HR/FB rate in a full season. Currently, his distance would represent a career low and is down five feet from last year, yet he’s already more than halfway to his 2015 home run total and has more than doubled his HR/FB rate. It might appear that he’s selling out for power given the sharp increase in strikeout rate, but he’s still swinging and missing much less frequently than the league average, and the power output looks to be a total fluke given the weak distance. He’s not exactly a sell high, but don’t for a second believe that he’s ready to reach the 20 homer plateau for the first time.

When the Red Sox gave up on Rusney Castillo, Brock Holt became the team’s primary left fielder. So far, he’s making the most of his opportunity, as he has already slugged one more homer than he did all of last season. But that’s been accomplished using smoke and mirrors. His batted ball distance is nearly identical to his mark last year and actually below his 2014 mark, yet his HR/FB rate has skyrocketed sixfold since last year and tripled from 2014. He’s going to steal you a base here and there and his BABIP should jump yielding a helpful batting average, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he failed to hit another homer the rest of the year.

No one expected Nomar Mazara to reach the Majors as early as he did this season, but the team decided to give him the opportunity when Shin-Soo Choo hit the disabled list. And boy has the 21-year-old impressed, as he has posted a solid .349 wOBA so far. While the inflated BABIP is supported by a strong batted ball profile, his power has no such legs to stand on. His batted ball distance ranks just 204th out of 247 batters, which is pretty terrible, yet his HR/FB rate is into the double digits and above the league average. While it’s tempting to chalk it up to the hitter friendliness of Globe Life Park (106 left-handed HR factor), he has actually yet to homer at home. All four of his long balls have come in away games! While Mazara certainly has the potential to up his distance, especially given his Raw and Game Power scouting grades, it would be prudent to expect his HR/FB rate to decline in the near term.

Colby Rasmus‘ HR/FB rate is right in line with where he’s sat since 2013. Add in a walk rate spike and a dramatic reduction in strikeout rate, and it looks like some exciting skills growth could lead to a major breakout season, right? Not so fast. That batted ball distance would easily mark a career low, as it has declined well below his current low of 275.5 feet set in 2012, which was the only time his distance fell below 280 feet. A career high Pull% on his fly balls has certainly helped, but it’s not enough to remain optimistic he could sustain such a HR/FB rate with that poor distance.

What has gotten into Neil Walker?! His HR/FB rate is double last year’s mark and significantly above his previous career high of 13.9% in 2014. It looks like he has consciously changed his approach, as his SwStk% is at a career high, while his fly ball rate has skyrocketed to a career high, as has his fly ball Pull%. This is what selling out for power looks like, though he’s done a good job of not allowing his SwStk% or strikeout rate to get out of control. His batted ball distance though is nearly identical to last year, so it’s hard to believe just pulling the ball a bit more often would lead to a HR/FB rate doubling. And will this new found pull approach last all season? The distance almost certainly will, so for there to be any glimmer of hope for a HR/FB rate into the high teens, he’s gotta continue pulling everything. I highly doubt anyone is paying for him given his current home run pace, so there’s not much for an owner to do other than cross your fingers and hope the good times last.