For the upcoming season, I will be predominantly covering first baseman here on Rotographs. First base is traditionally thought of as a super deep position. After looking more closely, beyond the top 10 there are some solid first basemen, but nothing to build your team around. What I aim to explore today are those 1B who you may need to look at later on in the draft, but can help you in one of the traditional 5 roto categories (make that four, stolen base totals were too low to have a significant impact). I will be using Steamer as a guide, and then identifying a few deeper picks who may help you in potential deficiencies.

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Below is the prospects installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher/Starting Pitcher

In Ottoneu, the prospect game is a bit different than in other fantasy leagues.  Ottoneu is not quite a dynasty, where you can stash players forever. But it’s a bit deeper than your average keeper league, and you can reap substantial benefit over a few years if you can score a hit on a top prospect. The rankings below reflect this dynamic – each of us has ranked our top 50 prospects according to a combination of his talent, proximity to MLB, and risk. As with our positional rankings, we’ve included each of our individual rankings, and a composite ranking that represents the average value we place on each player. Unlike our positional ranks, though, we’ve simply ranked our prospects from 1-50. It’s up to you (and your league’s market!) to determine how much of your budget you want to invest in prospects, depending on your team’s situation.

Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. “NR” indicates that the player was not ranked in one of our individual top 50 prospect lists. Consider this your early, subject to change, cheat sheet when you’re determining which prospects to target in your auction.

We can be reached on twitter as follows:

Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber

Key:
AVG. – The average of our four rankings (for the purposes of this exercise “NR” was calculated as a ranking of 55)
Split – Difference from highest rank to lowest rank

2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – Prospects

Name	Team	Pos	Justin	Joe	Tom	Trey	AVG.	Split
Corey Seager	Dodgers	SS	1	1	1	1	1	0
Lucas Giolito	Nationals	SP	3	5	2	2	3	3
J.P. Crawford	Phillies	SS	2	4	4	3	3.25	2
Nomar Mazara	Rangers	OF	8	2	3	5	4.5	6
Byron Buxton	Twins	OF	5	10	6	4	6.25	6
Julio Urias	Dodgers	SP	4	6	8	8	6.5	4
Steven Matz	Mets	SP	15	3	7	6	7.75	12
Tyler Glasnow	Pirates	SP	6	9	14	11	10	8
A.J. Reed	Astros	1B	14	8	10	9	10.25	6
Joey Gallo	Rangers	OF	18	13	5	7	10.75	13
Yoan Moncada	Red Sox	2B	10	19	9	10	12	10
Jose Berrios	Twins	SP	11	11	17	13	13	6
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	SP	9	17	18	12	14	9
Orlando Arcia	Brewers	SS	7	12	28	15	15.5	21
Trea Turner	Nationals	SS	13	14	13	23	15.75	10
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	OF	20	15	16	16	16.75	5
Dansby Swanson	Braves	SS	12	23	23	17	18.75	11
Blake Snell	Rays	SP	23	7	33	14	19.25	26
Jose De Leon	Dodgers	SP	29	16	21	20	21.5	13
Brendan Rodgers	Rockies	SS	25	34	12	19	22.5	22
Rafael Devers	Red Sox	3B	17	26	27	22	23	10
Andrew Benintendi	Red Sox	OF	24	27	24	18	23.25	9
Bradley Zimmer	Indians	OF	35	20	19	21	23.75	16
Franklin Barreto	Athletics	SS	19	25	20	33	24.25	14
Nick Williams	Phillies	OF	33	28	11	26	24.5	22
Austin Meadows	Pirates	OF	27	21	29	25	25.5	8
Brett Phillips	Brewers	OF	28	22	22	34	26.5	12
Manuel Margot	Padres	OF	16	24	32	39	27.75	23
Alex Bregman	Astros	SS	21	32	34	28	28.75	13
Aaron Judge	Yankees	OF	45	31	15	27	29.5	30
Jesse Winker	Reds	OF	31	29	31	29	30	2
Trevor Story	Rockies	SS	NR	18	26	24	30.75	8
Sean Manaea	Athletics	SP	38	30	30	31	32.25	8
Max Kepler	Twins	OF	36	33	35	30	33.5	6
David Dahl	Rockies	OF	34	39	25	40	34.5	15
Gary Sanchez	Yankees	C	41	35	36	35	36.75	6
Josh Bell	Pirates	1B	48	37	37	32	38.5	16
Tim Anderson	White Sox	SS	22	49	38	47	39	27
Sean Newcomb	Braves	SP	30	44	42	41	39.25	14
Clint Frazier	Indians	OF	44	42	40	43	42.25	4
Ozhaino Albies	Braves	SS	26	38	NR	NR	43.5	12
Ryan Mcmahon	Rockies	3B	43	45	43	45	44	2
Victor Robles	Nationals	OF	50	40	39	49	44.5	11
Gleyber Torres	Cubs	SS	32	46	NR	46	44.75	14
Alex Verdugo	Dodgers	OF	42	36	48	NR	45.25	12
Robert Stephenson	Reds	SP	46	NR	45	36	45.5	10
Hunter Renfroe	Padres	OF	NR	NR	44	38	48	6
Jose Peraza	Reds	2B	37	47	NR	NR	48.5	10
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	SP	NR	43	41	NR	48.5	2
Jorge Mateo	Yankees	SS	40	NR	47	NR	49.25	7
Jonathan Gray	Rockies	SP	47	NR	NR	42	49.75	5
Brandon Drury	Diamondbacks	2B/3B	NR	NR	46	44	50	2
Cody Reed	Reds	SP	NR	NR	NR	37	50.5	0
Javier Guerra	Padres	SS	39	NR	NR	NR	51	0
Anthony Alford	Blue Jays	OF	NR	41	NR	NR	51.5	0
Francis Martes	Astros	SP	NR	50	NR	48	52	2
Anderson Espinoza	Red Sox	SP	NR	48	NR	NR	53.25	0
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	SP	49	NR	NR	NR	53.5	0
Willy Adames	Rays	SS	NR	NR	49	NR	53.5	0
Carson Fulmer	White Sox	SP	NR	NR	50	NR	53.75	0
Dillon Tate	Rangers	RP	NR	NR	NR	50	53.75	0

Last night, my friends over at RotoBaller hosted a 12-team industry draft. Nine major fantasy providers were represented including me, Paul Sporer, and Alex Chamberlain for RotoGraphs. Justin Mason provided the assist for Sporer who was also drafting his #BeatSporer league.

While we talked a big game about preferring auction drafts, we did a snake because they take half the time. And the league isn’t even real. As somebody said, it’s a fake fake baseball league. We picked 23 players – 2 C, MI, CI, 5 OF, and all the normal stuff. No bench. We didn’t use RTS so no pretty auto-generated table. Here is the team I drafted, and you should be able to view our league.

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A couple weeks back I provided some (hopefully) useful tables demonstrating how R and RBI are affected by the team’s overall run scoring projection and where the hitter is positioned in the batting order.

At the time I assumed that a similar analysis for stolen bases would be unnecessary. I knew that runs and RBI are largely affected by team context and batting order, but had a feeling that stolen bases were simply a function of player skill. Maybe with a small hint of lineup effect.

Thankfully, our very own Birchwood Brothers questioned that assumption and asked if I had come across any similar research for stolen bases. So here I am to present those findings. Does a player’s position in the batting order affect stolen base frequency? Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve been running a series looking at the potential top rookie producers at each position around the baseball diamond for a few weeks now. This series should be valuable for anyone participating in a fantasy league that allows keepers. It could also help anyone playing in more traditional formats who may need to fill holes throughout the season or may be in need of a little spark.

Today, we take our third and final look at freshman outfielders.

Previously:
Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Outfielders (1 of 3)
Outfielders (2 of 3)

More Names to Know:

Brandon Nimmo, Mets: There’s no room at the inn in New York so Nimmo will no doubt open the year in Triple-A. He’s also been rehabbing a foot injury, which doesn’t help his case to open the year in the majors. Nimmo, 23, needs some more polish anyway. He hasn’t shown much power or stolen base acumen so his fantasy value is tied almost solely to his ability to hit for average and his ability to get on base. He’ll likely need an injury occur — or Michael Conforto to fall on his face — to see any significant playing time in 2016.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The always-stingy Colorado Rockies ranked 21st in the majors in salary by the end of the season, cracking the $100-million for the first time in franchise history. Their biggest expenditure, though, may have been the outlay for physical therapists specializing in neck injuries, as their pitching staff likely suffered from a great deal of whiplash in 2015.

The Rockies employed the second-worst pitching in baseball by wins above replacement, with the staff as a whole owning a 5.04 ERA, 4.56 FIP, and 4.33 xFIP. And sure, that xFIP-ERA gap is enormous thanks to a 13.2-percent home run per-fly ball rate, but that’s almost always going to be the case for a team that plays half its games at Coors Field – as a team, they haven’t outperformed their FIP or xFIP since 2007, the lone time they’ve done so in franchise history.

To combat this, the Rockies have eschewed strikeouts in favor of ground-ball pitchers, owning the fourth-highest ground-ball rate and the No. 28 strikeout rate a season ago. Whether or not that’s a sound strategy – limiting balls in play with high-whiff arms might better counter the Coors effect – is almost beside the point, because the Rockies haven’t made significant changes to the rotation for 2016.
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• Jarrod Dyson is reportedly out for at least six weeks with a strained oblique

Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson, expected to be the team’s Opening Day right fielder, left Wednesday’s Cactus League opener against the Rangers after two innings because of a strained right oblique.

Strains happen and it will be interesting to see if the Royals pick up a player or promote from within.

The one point of contention I have with injury articles is the estimated time lost. Earlier in the offseason, I created a tool which looks at the average disabled list time for injured players. For hitters with oblique injuries, the average time lost is 36 with a median value of 27 days.

Try to keep this tool in mind when hearing about player injury return times.

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Last week, I participated in a slow auction to kick off a 4×4 ottoneu league. I have done (and generally love) slow DRAFTS many times in the past, and those are pretty straight forward. They tend to work just like normal drafts, though the longer time between picks often leads to better research and fewer reaches, panic moves, etc.

But this slow auction thing – that was a whole new ballgame.

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On Tuesday, we had a mini-debate in the comments regarding the early season availability of Justin Turner. The Dodgers third baseman underwent microfracture surgery this winter, a procedure that often includes a winding path back to full time reps.

Early reports had Turner missing part of the regular season. More recently, it’s been said he’ll be “100 percent” by Opening Day. I have my doubts, but it got me thinking about how to value him in a fantasy draft. My thoughts on the subject don’t merit a full post. To make up for it, I’ll offer some opinions about Miguel Sano and Aroldis Chapman too.

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In my previous article, I found that left-handed platoon hitters who start games with the handedness advantage can expect to have that handedness advantage in 84.9 percent of their plate appearances in those games. Right-handed platoon hitters maintain their handedness advantage in 52.6 percent of their plate appearances in those games. Those percentages imply that relying on vs. left-handed pitcher and vs. right-handed pitcher split statistics to project the performance of platoon hitters in their starts with the platoon advantage overestimates their production in those starts. I wanted to see if I could do better based on my research, and so I created a (Marcel-) simple projection system.

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