MASH Report (3/3/16)

Jarrod Dyson is reportedly out for at least six weeks with a strained oblique

Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson, expected to be the team’s Opening Day right fielder, left Wednesday’s Cactus League opener against the Rangers after two innings because of a strained right oblique.

Strains happen and it will be interesting to see if the Royals pick up a player or promote from within.

The one point of contention I have with injury articles is the estimated time lost. Earlier in the offseason, I created a tool which looks at the average disabled list time for injured players. For hitters with oblique injuries, the average time lost is 36 with a median value of 27 days.

Try to keep this tool in mind when hearing about player injury return times.

• Another item I like to track during spring training is pitcher velocity. While some people may think it is too early to consider velocity relevant, it stabilizes quickly and on average only increase 0.6 mph once the regular season starts. I will keep the information on this Google Sheet and update it when I have time and think the pitcher is fantasy relevant.

With the background out of the way, it does seem like James Paxton is a pitcher to watch for a possible injury. In 2015 he was at 94.1 mph and yesterday his velocity averaged 91.4 mph. The velocity drop doesn’t mean to panic, but keep a close one on the rest of his starts.

Carter Capps is complaining about his elbow hurting and had an MRI.

Marlins manager Don Mattingly said Wednesday that he had no medical update from Tuesday, when it was revealed Capps’ elbow was bothering him. The hard-throwing right-hander had an MRI on Monday after experiencing discomfort on Sunday, and those results have been sent out for a second opinion.

“We’re hoping for the best, and [we’ll] see where it goes,” Mattingly said.

There is concern that Capps’ injury is serious, but until everything is definitive, the club is waiting and seeing.

In this case, I expect no news is bad news. If everything was great, the team and player would say something immediately. I think both are weighing the options right now and I expect some news in the next week or so.

Update: Capps is off to Dr. James Andrews

Last week, I mentioned Bradley Woodrum’s work on a Tommy John surgery predictor. The 10th highest most likely player to get Tommy John surgery was Capps.

Additionally, I am going to try my best to track pitcher elbow injuries and which pitchers end up getting Tommy John surgery. I am keeping the data tracked in this spreadsheet.

Josh Ravin will be out eight to 12 weeks with a broken arm from a car accident.

In other injury news, surgery was successful on right-hander Josh Ravin’s left arm, which was fractured in an auto accident on Monday. He is expected to be sidelined from eight to 12 weeks.

Brett Anderson is out three to five months because of back surgery. Shocking, I know. At least the Dodgers have plenty of pitchers to replace him.

Mario Hollands talks about how his Tommy John surgery recovery.

Other than opening day last April at Citizens Bank Park, which he attended, Hollands did not watch baseball. It was too difficult, he said, knowing he was helpless to a team that staggered toward 99 losses.

While everything about the Phillies changed, Hollands read. He withstood isolation.

“It feels like I was in a coma for a year,” Hollands said. “I woke up, and I’m on a whole new team.”

One problem I have is how some narratives keep getting used with changing times. Here are two paragraphs.

Those three words, Tommy John surgery, have become so commonplace in the game. A surgeon cuts into the pitcher’s elbow, replaces the ulnar collateral ligament with a tendon from somewhere else in the body, and a 12- to 18-month timeline for return is slapped on the athlete.

More and more teenagers are opting for the procedure. Some pitchers even return with better velocity on their pitches than before the surgery. Hollands is one of seven Phillies pitchers in camp who had Tommy John surgery. That is more than a quarter of the pitchers in the clubhouse this spring.

First, there are no 12 month return times … fourteen months minimum with the Braves going with 16 months. The velocity bump is usually from a velocity decline before/because of the injury. On average, most pitchers will see a velocity decline when they return.

Players on the 2016 DL

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.


Players possibly on the DL in 2016

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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