Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still superstars on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Brad Johnson
• Paul Kastava

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!

Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Jung-ho Kang, 3B/SS: Kang’s freshman season came to an unceremonious end with a knee injury suffered in a nasty collision in the infield. The infielder preformed much better than expected after coming over from the pro leagues in South Korea. A big power hitter in his home country, he showed solid pop in the Majors with 15 homers in 126 games. He’s not a flash fielder but he’s steady and has added fantasy value because he qualifies in most (of not all leagues) at both shortstop and third base. Kang is expected to be ready for the start of 2016 but it remains to be seen if the injury will be a long-term concern.

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We’re starting our annual Depth Chart Discussions, reborn as Playing Time Battles. This is the central housing unit for them. I will link each piece as it goes up. You can access this chart by click Depth Chart Discussions in the Draft Tools box on the right. You can also follow the DC Discussion tag if you prefer that.

Alex kicked it off with Toronto’s pitching!

Very soon, you will be treated to RotoGraphs’ first round of composite rankings for the 2016 draft season. We’ll be starting with outfield and other positions will trickle out over the next 10 business days. Seven of us contributed to this January round of ranking. Six of us agreed that Mike Trout is the top outfielder.

I can never do things the easy way. While I was adding my ranks, I noticed a couple discrepancies between my ranking process and that of the my colleagues. So I asked some questions. As it turns out, I have some weird quirks when it comes to positional ranking.

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Later today, we’re starting the first run of our 2016 Rotographs rankings. We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still superstars on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. The position order for the rankings roll-out will be as follows:

• Outfielder (Jan. 18-today)
• Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
• Shortstop (Jan. 22)
• First Base (Jan. 25)
• Catcher (Jan. 26)
• Second Base (Jan. 27)
• Third Base (Jan. 28)
• DH (Jan. 29)
• Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)

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Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

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Last year, I unveiled the xHR/FB rate equation I developed that I use to help me with my Pod Projections. We’re all familiar with the average batted ball distance component of the formula. Also included is the hitter’s average absolute angle (AAA) of his fly balls, which has a relatively low year-over-year correlation.

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Yesterday, we looked in on one of the top closer-setup tandems outside of the Bronx. Zach Britton and Darren O’Day are the best at what they do. As it turns out, the Marlins also have a couple elite relievers who are the very best at something – A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps.

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With the departure of Francisco Rodriguez, the Milwaukee closer role is Will Smith’s to lose. Smith took big steps last season improving his K%, BB%, ERA (or FIP, if that’s more your cup of tea), HR/9, and K:BB%. Smith is trending in the right direction with all of these metrics.

The main reason it would seem that Smith has improved so well is his pitch selection. Smith started using his fastball less, particularly his 2-seamer, and increased the usage of his slider, which is by far his most effective pitch. Outside of 2012, his wSL has been his most positive pitch, combining for 16.1 runs above average for the past three years. His fastball, on the other hand, has graded out at negative 21.4 over the past four years. Could he become the next Andrew Miller?

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For the second straight season, Minnesota Twins closer Glen Perkins suffered a second half swoon. This one was more pronounced, as the left-hander carried a 1.21 ERA into the All Star Break and a 7.32 mark afterward.

The decline came in pretty much every facet of Perkins’ game. He threw 37.1 innings in the first half but just 19.2 after the break due to neck and back issues that led some to question his conditioning. Nevertheless, even when he was healthy enough to pitch, he was getting blasted. Check out his opponents’ hitting splits:

First Half: .188/.217/.246 (.206 wOBA)
Second Half: .356/.394/.674 (.447)

They slugged .674! SIX. SEVENTY. FOUR. That’s 25 points higher than what NL MVP Bryce Harper slugged. Of course, any kind of physical issue dealing with the core is going to sap a pitcher’s effectiveness, and make his stuff much worse than it’d usually be. Read the rest of this entry »