My 10 Bold Predictions from 2013 were 10 swings and 10 misses. Last season I posted the same 0-for-10 line, but this year? At long last, I broke through and got one right! Actually, I got more than one right, but I’m just gloating now. My full prediction piece can be found here. For style, I’m stealing Alex Chamberlain’s prediction-by-prediction commentary.

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
Originally this was written he’ll just score 120 runs, but the commenters thought Donaldson may hit behind the likes of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. While I certainly agreed that seemed like the best lineup construction, I wasn’t convinced the Blue Jays would do that, but I edited in the possibility for a huge RBI season. For the first month the comment section proved correct as Donaldson hit third or fifth a combined 14 times in April, but then the team moved him to the No. 2 spot for the majority of the season. He finished with 122 runs scored and 123 RBIs, barely edging my prediction, but hey, a win is a win.

1-for-1, the streak has been broken!

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The 2015 season humbled me. In 2014, I reached the playoffs in all four of my leagues and won two of them. I cleaned up at each draft and I cleaned up on the waiver wire. I felt unstoppable. I felt like I had it all figured out.

Then 2015 happened. I botched my first (and most important) draft (“LOWV,” henceforth). Then I botched then next one. Then I botched the two snake drafts, as I always do. I botched the Birchwood Brothers‘ Birchwood Derby midseason draft as well. Botched. Botchy botch botched.

Right. So I learned some things. You’re never too old, nor too wise, to learn. Conveniently, I’m neither old nor wise, so I still have plenty of learning to do. And when Major League Baseball turns in a season as unpredictable as this one, well, everyone learns a thing or two.

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When I wrote my 10 Bold Predictions in March, I knew they were bold. And when I reviewed them in July, I knew they were not going well.

But this poorly? Yikes.
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Aside from my annual bold predictions, I risk complete embarrassment by also trying to predict the surprise league leaders on both the hitting and pitching side. Obviously, these are even more difficult than the bold predictions and getting even one right is quite the accomplishment. Let’s see how this season’s crop of longshots did.

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In March, I made some bold predictions. I thought they were fairly bold, so I was ready to award myself the participation ribbon no matter what. In July, the predictions, somewhat predictably, looked bad. And they still look bad now.

But I don’t feel so badly about them. Many of them were pretty dang close, and I’m proud. But a win-loss record doesn’t care about minutiae, and the win-loss record ain’t so good.

1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.

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This year, I went bolder. I went more precise. I tied success to specific numbers.

I’m guessing that will tank my completion percentage, which has hovered around 33-40%. Let’s check the tape. I’m nervous.

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Here’s an actual sentence from an actual e-mail message from one actual Birchwood Brother to the other. Date: October 18, 2014. Subject: Why to Take KC over SF at Even Money in the 2014 World Series. Rationale: “I think KC will figure out how to hit Bumgarner.”

It’s this kind of prescience, we feel, that will impel you to listen to what we have to say about the Fantasy dimensions of the 2015 MLB playoffs. And not for us the tepid, game-by-game forecasts that make DFS go. No–when we say playoffs, we mean the whole month-long thing: a start-to-finish prediction that we are making before the first pitch of the first wild card game is thrown. And as ever, we are putting our money where our opinions are. We are competing in the NFBC Post-Season Contest, which entails picking a lineup for the first round of the playoffs, resetting for the second round, and resetting again for the World Series. Rosters consist of ten hitters and six pitchers, with at least one guy and no more than three from each of the playoff teams in the first round. There’s a premium on picking players who make it to the succeeding rounds, which means you want to be right about which teams win. It also seems to us that the NFBC scoring system overvalues home runs. Here’s a link to the rules if you’re curious: http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/rules/nfbcholdem.asp?id=1507 We’ve got as much chance of winning this as we do of knocking over the Milk Bottle Pyramid at the County Fair Carnival, but we’re undeterred. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2013, I won the inaugural year of the Tout Wars Mixed Draft league. I was rewarded with a promotion to one of the three live auction leagues and was ecstatic to have been slotted into the storied American League only version, made famous by the fantastic book Fantasyland. Unfortunately, year one in AL Tout Wars went terribly, as I finished 10th. As further punishment, my team garnered fewer than 60 fantasy points, which resulted in me beginning the 2015 season with a reduced FAAB.

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Well, it is that time when we look back to see how bad were our 2015 BOLD preseason predictions. Let me see if I can improve on last year’s three for 10 results.

Note: I will use the rating from ESPN and Yahoo! to determine the player’s ranking.

1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015.
Well, I started out fine. Kershaw came close by being the 3rd overall pitcher with Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke ahead of him. Kershaw was his normal self, but Greinke and Arrieta had career seasons. Trout was a little further down the hitter rankings at #7. His biggest issue was an injured wrist which limited his production.

1 for 1

2. Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs.
Nope. He ended up tied for tenth in the NL with 27 home runs. The 27 was more than most people expected, but not #1. I should have stated HR/FB% in which he was #1 in the NL (and AL) with a min 400 PA. Alvarez needs to find his way to the American league where he can bat every day.

1 for 2

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This was my first foray into the Bold Predictions (emphasis on bold) so let’s see how I did:

1.) Nathan Eovaldi breaks out in New York.

Eovaldi lowered his ERA and had a pretty 14-3 record but a 4.20 ERA and only 121 strikeouts in 154 innings pitched does not constitute as a break out. In spite of increased average fastball velocity (96.7 mph compared to 95.7 mph in 2014) Eovaldi’s ability to miss bats barely improved. His SwStr% rose a few fractions of a point and his K% jumped a point and a half to 18% but both marks are below the league average. I still hold out hope that Eovaldi can break out in the near future but it wasn’t in 2015.

0 for 1

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