Ottoneu Mondays return. Last offseason, I covered an ottoneu related topic on most Mondays. We’ll continue the tradition this offseason. Do look for more ottoneu content from Chad Young too.
Because I hate myself to the core, this is one of my favorite articles to write every season. I really do enjoy writing the 10 Bold Predictions too — I’m just terrible at it — and so I also like the opportunity to harshly criticize myself when the season draws to a close.
Let’s have a look at the hot takes that I laid out some six-and-a-half months ago.
1. Kyle Gibson is no worse than the second-most valuable Twins starter in fantasy this year.
Success! Gibson took a nice step forward this year, toying with a league average strikeout rate while maintaining a strong groundball rate. He wasn’t necessarily better on the whole from a value standpoint, but he did take steps to improve his peripherals and he got some help along the way. Ervin Santana got suspended, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco got hurt and nobody really stepped up the challenge Gibson for this crown. Tyler Duffey might have with a longer sample size and so too might have Jose Berrios, but that is neither here nor there. (1/1) Read the rest of this entry »
Reviewing one’s bold predictions is like opening that tupperware container that’s been forgotten at the back of your refrigerator for some time: you hope the contents might still be edible, but in actuality, you’re about to see something you wish you hadn’t, and the smell isn’t too good, either. Here we go.
As a heads up, the rankings below rely on ESPN’s Player Rater.
Read the rest of this entry »
In case you’re not already fighting Bold Prediction fatigue, it’s time to see how I did with mine.
1. Jorge Soler will hit at least 33 home runs
Vast and confounding is the mystery of Soler’s performance this season. One of the few things I am sure of is that he did not hit anywhere close to 33 home runs. Soler was more aggressive and struggled to make contact, while his ISO more than halved from his debut. You’ll see later where an extra dose of boldness hurt my chances, but not this time. I was nowhere close.
0-for-1
Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.
The Graduate: Noah Syndergaard, RHP: The Mets knew they were getting a talented arm when they traded R.A. Dickey to Toronto in late 2012 but he’s perhaps been even better than advertised. Just 23, he pitched 150 innings in the big leagues in 2015 and kept base runners to a minimum with just 126 hits allowed. The man nicknamed Thor also displayed outstanding control and held hitters to just 31 walks. On the down side, he was touched up for 19 home runs because he was always around the strike zone and struggled with his command at times. If his secondary stuff continues to improve there is no reason why he can’t develop into a No. 1 stud for the Mets.
Despite being with FanGraphs since late 2009, 2015 marked the first season in which I entered my bold predictions for all the world to see. How’d I do? Let’s find out together. Read the rest of this entry »
• I completed going through the DL instances and looked for players who will likely be on the DL to start the 2016 season. If the return dates are March then April, there is a good chance the player will come back healthy, but they are close to being 100% yet. I am taking the conservative route and want to see them playing before I remove them from the list.
• Carlos Santana played through the 2015 season with a bad back.
Not once this season did Carlos Santana mention to reporters that he was bothered by a back issue that was plaguing his offensive production. A few hours before the Indians’ final game of the year on Sunday, the first baseman admitted that the ailment was a persistent problem.
…
Heading into Sunday’s action, Santana was sporting a .232/.358/.397 slash line to go along with 19 homers, 29 doubles, 72 runs, 85 RBIs and 107 walks. His overall showing was not far off his production from last year, though his home run total (27 in 2014) and slugging percentage (.427 in ’14) took a hit.
Historically, back injuries don’t linger too much into the next season. Since he is now only 1B eligible, his 2016 value is minimal.
I fell half a win shy of my goal of two correct bold predictions this season, but the good news is that I get to watch my one major success lead the Cubs on an exciting postseason run.
Previous bold prediction reviews: 2014
Yesterday, I reviewed my 2015 Bold Hitter League Leaders. And they were laughably bad. I haven’t actually looked at my pitcher picks as I type this and I cannot for the life of me remember them. So, let’s hope they turned out better. Here are my original explanations.
Do you like laughing? Of course, we all do. Well, have I got something for you! Incorrect bold predictions always look hilariously stupid at season’s end, that’s just the nature of the beast. Given that they are at least somewhat far-fetched to begin with, ones that fail (most of them) often do so spectacularly. The RG crew has been reviewing their bold predictions all week so it’s time for me to take my victory lap medicine poop sandwich.
I tend to think that letter-of-the-law grading with Bold Predictions isn’t necessary as the purveyor of them is usually trying to get across a more general point as opposed to nail it exactly. For example, if someone said Kendrys Morales will be a top 10 first baseman as one of their BPs this year, I’d be inclined to give them a +1 for that even though he was 11th at the position per the ESPN Player Rater. That said, even leniency wouldn’t help me so we’re going with letter-of-the-law grading.
Let’s get to the carnage.