Brandon Warne Revisits Terrible Ten Bold Predictions 2015

Because I hate myself to the core, this is one of my favorite articles to write every season. I really do enjoy writing the 10 Bold Predictions too — I’m just terrible at it — and so I also like the opportunity to harshly criticize myself when the season draws to a close.

Let’s have a look at the hot takes that I laid out some six-and-a-half months ago.

1. Kyle Gibson is no worse than the second-most valuable Twins starter in fantasy this year.
Success! Gibson took a nice step forward this year, toying with a league average strikeout rate while maintaining a strong groundball rate. He wasn’t necessarily better on the whole from a value standpoint, but he did take steps to improve his peripherals and he got some help along the way. Ervin Santana got suspended, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco got hurt and nobody really stepped up the challenge Gibson for this crown. Tyler Duffey might have with a longer sample size and so too might have Jose Berrios, but that is neither here nor there. (1/1)

2. The rookie home run leader is not Kris Bryant.
Can I take half credit for this? Bryant tied with Joc Pederson as both had 26 home runs. Justin Bour was right behind them at 23, which also strikes me as crazy. Jung-Ho Kang — who I surmised might have a shot to match Bryant — finished with just 15 — 10th among MLB rookies. People were made that I took the field against one player, but c’mon now. This still felt like a layup for Bryant in my view. (1.5/2)

3. Jose Altuve’s value completely collapses.
He didn’t hit .340 again and stole 20 fewer bases with 25 fewer hits, but in no way, shape or form is there credit to be taken here. He was markedly worse offensively, but still among the elite second basemen. (1.5/3)

4. Brett Lawrie outproduces Josh Donaldson in some form or fashion.
LOL OK. (1.5/4)

5. Billy Hamilton becomes the first player to steal 80 bases since 1988 — two years before he was born.
This was dumb. Hamilton did finish second with 57 steals (one behind Dee Gordon), but how far did steals drop off the map this year? Only three players — Hamilton included — had even half the number of steals I thought Hamilton might get. Idiot. (1.5/5)

6. Groundball wizards Trevor Cahill and Justin Masterson are both resurrected in 2015, and become fantasy relevant again.
Even worse than Lawrie. Both were DFA’d this season. (1.5/6)

7. Dallas Keuchel — deep AL Cy Young sleeper.
Now we’re talking. I don’t think he’ll win — I’ve got David Price — but from a fantasy standpoint he won an AL-best 20 games and took a very nice leap in strikeout rate that I do believe I said I saw coming. (2.5/7)

8. Kansas City finishes under .500.
I just watched Kendrys Morales hit two home runs while writing this. (2.5/8)

9. Wil Myers is the outfielder to own in San Diego.
Myers had a fine season when healthy, but let’s not forget that Justin Upton exists. (2.5/9)

10. Yasmany Tomas is Dayan Viciedo 2.0.
Tomas, year 1: .273/.305/.401 (.307 wOBA, 88 wRC+)
Viciedo, career: .254/.298/.424 (.315 wOBA, 96 wRC+)

I’m taking credit for that one. (3.5/10)

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I hit .350; where’s my AL batting title?

But for real, I’ll try not to be as dumb about making picks like “The Royals to finish under .500” for Rotographs. What’s up with that?