Review season continues this week and I begin by analyzing how well my xK% equation performed at identifying starting pitchers with strikeout rate upside in 2015. When I originally created my upside target group, it wasn’t a straight list of the starters whose xK% marks most exceeded their actual K% marks, but rather the more interesting names that were fantasy relevant that appeared at or near the top.
The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. After looking at catchers last week, we start moving around the diamond and focus on first basemen.
The players were ranked based on their 2015 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2015.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth. These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. A player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
For years Yadier Molina has been the gold standard behind the dish known for both his tremendous defense and durability. He has 412 Gold Glove Awards (fine, just seven) and he’s caught at least 1000 innings seven of the last eight seasons and fewer than 930 just once in his 11 full seasons. Of course even he blushes at the workloads that KC is feeding Salvador Perez.
When Molina first started, his defense was the only reason to play him. He logged a .653 OPS in his first 1429 PA through age-24. The reps started to pay off as he started to turn his elite contact ability into some results with a .720 OPS in 1550 PA from ages 25-27. By now we’re looking at almost 3000 PA through his mid-20s and then we finally got a power surge with a .842 OPS in 1622 PA from ages 28-30 including a career-year in 2012 when he hit .315 with 22 HR, 76 RBI, 65 R, and 12 SB. He finished fourth in the MVP voting that year.
Over the last two seasons, he has been a blend of those first two samples with just a .687 OPS in 975 PA. In 2014, a torn right thumb cost him 40 games in the middle of the season. That injury looks like a signifier of his power decline as he returned to post just a .317 SLG in 27 games that year, but his 39 games prior to the injury yielded just a .315 SLG in 145 PA.
Last year, my new year’s resolution was to join a dynasty league. I’ve always been fascinated by the concept, but it’s challenging to find the right league. Generally, you need 20 very competitive, knowledgeable owners. Too often, attempts to form dynasty leagues include too many weak links and fall apart.
Luckily for me, fellow RotoGraphist Chad Young wanted a partner in his league – The Devil’s Rejects. Other owners include Eno Sarris and representatives from a variety of the top fantasy services. The majority of teams are run by at least two owners.
I hesitate to call anything in Ottoneu a rebuild, especially in our Fangraphs Experts League II (linear weights) just because it hasn’t been around long enough for anyone to really “rebuild.” I finished third in the league’s inaugural year (2012), but had slumped to sixth the next season before bottoming out at 10th out of 12 teams a season ago.
I’ve long made youth a big part of how I conduct business — most certainly to a fault — but that really started to pay off in 2015. With a roster that appeared likely to finish in the middle of the pack with strong possibility of finishing strong, I was at least semi-enthused about my chances to make progress this season and perhaps a run in 2016. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday I kicked off this party with Part I which covers my methodology and includes a table of all the folks we’re talking about.
It also looks at nine young guys – rookies and near rookies – who broke out. Today we take a look at some less-young guys.
Yes, the 2016 projections are available thanks to Steamer. Well, they are kind of available. The projections’ playing times are all set to 600 PA for hitters, 200 IP for starters and 65 IP for relievers. There is no middle ground right now. The playing time estimates will be included from our depth charts once the postseason is over and the hot stove season is well under way.
I have gone ahead and included the Standard Gain Points value I calculated from the 2014 NFBC leagues from the 2014 season to give the players an overall rank. I will eventually get around to calculating the 2015 SGP values, but these numbers will give owners an initial estimate of the player’s value at the set playing time values.
Here are the hitters and pitchers tables and the values can be download with the link after both tables.
On or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.
And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I started with the catchers earlier this week and today is a review of the first basemen.
Actual Isolated Slugging Results
.268 — Greg Bird, Yankees
.218 — Justin Bour, Marlins
.217 — Travis Shaw, Red Sox
.185 — Ben Paulsen, Rockies
.172 — Mark Canha, Athletics
Marc’s Top 4
1. D.J. Peterson, Mariners
2. Maikel Franco, Phillies*
3. Josh Bell, Pirates
4. Christian Walker, Orioles
Honorable Mentions
Greg Bird, Yankees
Travis Shaw, Red Sox
Looking at the Top 4… I whiffed badly, save for Franco and I’ll talk more about him in the run down of the third basemen. I will say this, though: His spotty defence in the minors suggested he would see time primarily at first base when he entered The Show but continued poor performances from Cody Asche kept the rookie at the hot corner in 2015.
Entering the year, Francisco Cervelli had a career high of 317 plate appearances in a single season. The narrative was familiar: he could hit, he could receive, he just couldn’t stay healthy. The 29-year-old finally shook the injury prone label with a 510 plate appearance, 3.8 WAR season.
• Well, I have taken the Tommy John surgery information Jon Roegele (mainly) and I (a small bit) and created a Tableau graph (full page view) out of the year-to-year values. I know it is simple, but it is the most common way I have seen the information.