Initial 2016 Steamer Projections
Yes, the 2016 projections are available thanks to Steamer. Well, they are kind of available. The projections’ playing times are all set to 600 PA for hitters, 200 IP for starters and 65 IP for relievers. There is no middle ground right now. The playing time estimates will be included from our depth charts once the postseason is over and the hot stove season is well under way.
I have gone ahead and included the Standard Gain Points value I calculated from the 2014 NFBC leagues from the 2014 season to give the players an overall rank. I will eventually get around to calculating the 2015 SGP values, but these numbers will give owners an initial estimate of the player’s value at the set playing time values.
Here are the hitters and pitchers tables and the values can be download with the link after both tables.
Hitters
Pitchers
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I see a Cliff Lee projection.
I hope the world we live in is one that Cliff Lee pitches in again.
Numbers on the downloaded spreadsheet don’t match number displayed on this page….
Thanks, fixed
Wow, so Mookie Betts really is the 8th ranked hitter. I suppose I don’t disagree, but just wow.
steals are heavily valued here
Similar to last year, those players injured at the end of the season only have either 1 IP or 1 PA in their projections. The rate projections are okay.
Has the auction calculator been updated with the 2016 steamer projections or is it still last yearns projections?
Looks like it’s still being worked on. Position eligibility is from last year. Stanton is not set to 600 PAs, but 0. Etc.
How does the Steamer algorithm decide something like 8 HR for Billy Hamilton @ 600 PA? He never did that many HR/PA at any level.
Hamilton is lifting weights this offseason – and reading saber analysis. He knows that steals are old-school and power is where its at. A prime candidate for BSOML and a power breakout. 500 HR’s here we come.
Aren’t the projections based on a formula? Or does Jeff tweak them with random news-worthy updates like this??
Hamilton’s HR projection benefits from both aging and regression towards the mean.
Fairly positive Oscar Taveras isn’t going to meet his projection.
Ghost runner on first
Not sure whether this should be up-voted or down-voted. Probably both.
Too soon Steamer, too soon.
I know they’re early projections and injuries/age can cause surprising results, but a lot of things just seem wacky here! i cheer for STL so my attention went there first, but to take their rotation:
Adam Wainwright: 224th
Carlos Martinez: 353rd
Lance Lynn: 65th
Michael Wacha: 58th
Apologies because I’m sure every year there are similar comments about particular players, but it seems to be putting too much weight on injuries in the case of Wainwright (particularly because he already came back late in the season and performed well), and I have no idea what’s going on with the Carlos Martinez projection.
Z S, the playing time is based on the depth charts and the Cardinals staff is still set-up the way it was for the division series so while Martinez gets a 3.42 ERA projection, he just isn’t currently projected to pitch at all. We’ll get the playing time sorted out as the offseason unfolds – in the mean time I think it’s only worth looking at the rate stats. Sorry about that.
I thought the initial paragraph is says that everyone is assumed to be getting 600 PA or 200 IP though?
…Wainwright is a reliever in this postseason, so he’s got a projection of only 65 innings.
MArtinez is hurt, I’m sure he’s got a <200 IP projection also
Yes, that’s right. I was looking at the player page rather than the spreadsheet above.
Javier Baez at 31 overall? Is this a cruel trick, or should I keep him?
Rookie question bro. He could be a keeper depending on your league settings but no one can accurately give you an answer without league context.
One name that surprised me a bit is AJ Pollock; after going 20-39 .315 this year he gets almost halved to 13-25 hitting .281. His 2013 seems to be weighting too heavily in whatever calculation was made because this regresses backwards past two full years of (massive) progress.
Agreed. I’m expecting more of a 16/32 line. Some regression but no need to knock that many steals with a full season of playing time (which is what Steamer is projecting for everyone currently.
Pollock was one of the players on which ZiPS and Steamer seemed to diverge the most last year. Steamer was wrong (too conservative). Would love to see a look-back on why.
I believe Duda was another.
Steamer sucks.
This might be a noob question, but is there any evidence of which projection system has been more accurate between Steamer & ZiPS & other?
Yes, and you can google and find some stuff. In general, ZiPS and Steamer both do really well (better than the rest) and which is better varies both year by year and by lots of other factors – there was a Hardball Times article last year that noted that Steamer was better on Rookies, for example.
here it is, actually: http://www.hardballtimes.com/evaluating-the-2014-projection-systems/
ZiPS was better at projecting breakdowns, Steamer at Breakouts, and all sorts of other things.
For my money, ZiPS and Steamer are the cream of the crop and you can’t go too wrong with either.
Average them, and you’re as gold as it gets.
Yeah, I had googled a bit but wasn’t finding what I was looking for, thanks for the input!
I’ll save everyone a thousand words and simply say I disagree.
What’s up with buster posey being ranked lower than Christian Colon???
Poor Wilin, we hardly knew ye.
Uh hello?
I don’t see Joey Gallo getting enough playing time to hit 35 HRs. And really, 57 steals for Jarrod Dyson? I’ll have what you’re having.
Sonny Gray at 80? Wow.