Agenda
If you are looking for analysis here, sorry but there is none. What follows though is the information that might help others do their analysis. At the very least, you’ll have better information on shifted hitters and which teams which employ the shift the most.
Top 30 Players (Basically, any slow left-handed hitter)
Yesterday, I took our first look at the batted ball distance leaderboard to identify hitters who could enjoy a surge in HR/FB rate. Today I’ll check in on the potential decliners. This could perhaps be your sell candidates. I’m going to ignore the obvious ones that have still posted strong distance marks, like Bryce Harper at at 35.5% HR/FB rate, backed by a 323 foot distance. Obviously, he’s going to regress, but that big distance suggests a career year in the power department.
Yesterday marked the 10 year anniversary of the Leeroy Jenkins video. While not a WoW player myself (shocking, I know) this video was inescapable back in the day.
On today’s agenda:
1. Time to buy Adam Eaton
2. Maikel Franco watch
3. Streaming Pitching Options
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After giving up three runs to the Cubs on April 21, birds of concern were circling around Mark Melancon. He came in with a two-run lead against the Phillies on Monday, and proceeded to give up a home run, a trio of sharp liners and a fly ball to centre, and he walked away with his eighth save of the year. His velocity still isn’t where it was, but is it that big of a deal? He’s pretty much scrapped his four-seamer, going with it 3.9% of the time in 2015, down from 27.3% last year. That’s been replaced with increased usage of the cutter, as he’s throwing it 69.6% of the time. That home run he gave up Monday was the first earned run he’d put up since that April 21 debacle, throwing eight scoreless innings to lower his ERA from 8.53 to 3.77. The lack of strikeouts are a cause for concern, and his 8.9% K%-BB% is well off his 25.6% and 25.1% of the past two seasons, but as long as he keeps getting plays made behind him, he’ll be closing games in Pittsburgh. And also in other cities that the Pirates play in.
• Alex Cobb is going to need Tommy John surgery and will be out until late 2016.
Cobb expects to have the surgery performed by Dr. James Andrews on Thursday. Based on that date and the normal recovery from Tommy John surgery — 14 to 15 months — the Rays are hopeful he can be back by around September 2016.
The general public thinks a year in the normal time to return from TJS, but recently, the time table has been pushed back to a 14-month timetable. It may be a little less for relief pitchers. Of the fourteen major league pitchers who had the operation before 5/11/14, only Luke Hochevar is back and his operation was on 3/18/14.
Last year Shelby Miller had a sophomore slump that saw him be worth 0.5 WAR over the course of 31 starts, a very poor number for such a highly regarded prospect coming off of an impressive rookie campaign. Miller was able to net a more respectable ERA than his WAR would suggest, for the second year running, but his strikeouts were down and walks were up, which we all know and understand to be a very dangerous and ominous combination.
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Ever since Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop went down with a sprained right knee, manager Buck Showalter has been covering the keystone in some wonderfully weird ways. Without backup Ryan Flaherty — who hit the disabled list himself with a groin injury — Showalter turned to a couple of highly unorthodox options.
As Jeff Sullivan outlined last week, the Orioles called up natural second baseman Reynaldo Navarro, but used him sparingly before ultimately optioning him back to Triple-A on Friday. Instead, Showalter has relied on Jimmy Paredes — who had made just eight starts at second in his five partial major-league seasons — and first baseman/corner outfielder Steve Pearce, who had never logged an inning at the position in his 11-year professional career.
Each weekend I take the ZiPS rest-of-season projections and run them through the Zach Sanders z-score method and then see how players I have rostered compare to players available on the waiver wire. Being that I’m tasked with discussing shortstops here on Mondays, I thought I’d analyze two decisions I had to make this week involving shortstops. Read the rest of this entry »
The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re going to take a look at three young players that have seen their values increase and have an opportunity to impact their clubs in 2016 — if not sooner.
Earlier Editions:
Prospect Stock Watch 2
Prospect Stock Watch 1
Clint Coulter, OF, Brewers: The Brewers began the task of converting Coulter from catcher to outfielder in 2014 and it’s continued on into this season. The young prospect has yet to don the tools of ignorance in an official game in 2015 but, unlike a lot of players converted from catching, he doesn’t project to lose much value. That’s because he offers so much at the plate beginning with plus power, which he’s showcased in the Florida State League (A+) this year with a .607 slugging and seven homers in 28 games.
Coulter, 21, strikes out like a power hitter but he also takes a lot of walks and should produce a strong on-base percentage in the Majors. After a strong 2014 season in 2014 and a quick start in ’15, he’s primed for a promotion to Double-A by mid-year, which would put him in the Majors in 2016. That could make incumbent left-fielder Kris Davis expendable as he enters arbitration and becomes more expensive. [Value Up]