MASH Report (5/11/15)
• Alex Cobb is going to need Tommy John surgery and will be out until late 2016.
Cobb expects to have the surgery performed by Dr. James Andrews on Thursday. Based on that date and the normal recovery from Tommy John surgery — 14 to 15 months — the Rays are hopeful he can be back by around September 2016.
The general public thinks a year in the normal time to return from TJS, but recently, the time table has been pushed back to a 14-month timetable. It may be a little less for relief pitchers. Of the fourteen major league pitchers who had the operation before 5/11/14, only Luke Hochevar is back and his operation was on 3/18/14.
• Drew Smyly may be out for the rest of the season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. More information with be available soon, but he may be droppable in re-draft leagues at this point.
• Kevin Gausman will miss some time with shoulder tendinitis. A better understanding of the exact nature of the injury will be available in a day or two as he has some tests performed.
• I was a little surprised Michael Saunders made it back from the DL so quickly after having most of his meniscus removed from one knee. Now he is back on the DL with pain in the same knee. This knee could bother him for the rest of his career.
• Yonder Alonso has a deep bruise in his shoulder which will keep him out of action for at least a couple of weeks.
• Any chance of Jarrod Parker pitching in the majors may be over with a facture to this elbow which he recently had Tommy John surgery on. Right now there are more questions than answers about his future.
• Dillon Gee went on the DL with a groin strain. I am not sure what to make of this comment by Sandy Alderson on Gee’s injury.
Given the uncertainty of the groin, we decided to retroactively put him on the DL from Monday
Uncertain groins?
• The Royals placed Jason Vargas on the DL with a flexor strain. He is expected to only miss the required 15 days.
• The Yankees Chris Martin in on the DL with elbow tendinitis.
• Expect a drop in production from Hanley Ramirez as he plays through a shoulder injury.
Velocity Readings
• Joe Wieland’s average fastball velocity seems fine.
• Greg Holland’s velocity is no longer dropping, but still not up to his 2014 levels
• Justin Grimm’s velocity looks fine.
• Tom Wilhelmsen’s speed is near last year’s values
• Luke Hochevar is not up to his 2013 velocity highs
• Henderson Alvarez’s velocity is up from earlier this season as he heads off to make some minor league starts. He averaged 93.5 mph in ’14 and 90 mph in ’15 so he is between the two values right now.
“Henderson threw 50 pitches and everything went well,” Miami manager Mike Redmond said Thursday afternoon. “They said his velocity was 91-92 [mph]. He got through it, and everything went well.”
Players on the DL in 2015
The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Hey jeff how do see syndergaard fairing in chicago tomorrow?
Really no idea, but he could get a decent number of K’s. It seems like rookies either get called up and throw the other team off guard or lose their nerves. I am not sure what we are going to get.
I believe you cited Fister’s velo loss in a previous column. Would you be concerned by the velo loss to the point that you’d prefer Carlos Rodon over Fister in a K/9 league?
I have zero faith in Fister right now. 4% K%. is getting by on smoke and mirros
Do you know if Chris Sale is experiencing a drop in velocity?
You can go to his player page and be the judge.
First, click the Pitchf/x tab, then click the velocity charts tab, and you can see that if anything, he’s had a velo increase:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitch=FT
The issue with Sale more than anything seems to be his control. I think he will figure it out quickly, but as a Sale owner in a bunch of leagues it stinks watching my Ace get shelled for two straight outings.
I don’t see any concerns. He is having a rough stretch with his BABIP and his defense is rated as one of the worst in the league.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d
So it seems like we should be worried about his defense. Would you still take him over Bumgarner.
The Rotowire News on Sale’s player page says that he “has been throwing fewer sliders and more changeups this season in an effort to reduce strain on his elbow.” What are we to make of that moving forward?
Sale has always been an injury risk with his delivery. People have taken chances with him every year and those chances have paid off.
Throwing less sliders should have happened a couple of years ago, but his owners are going to have to deal with the transition.
Jeff, Thanks for all the feedback on Sale! Your “deal with the transition” comment makes me nervous about him. Is he going to be better than, equal to or less than Bumgarner?
Hey Jeff, two questions today.
1)Is it a good idea to drop Matt Adams for Mark Canha? I’ve been really wanting to add Canha, but Adams is the only real drop candidate and even he’s not doing too bad.
2)Should I drop Cishek for another reliever next chance I get? I’m in a non-hold, only saves league, but Cishek’s really put a hurting on my ERA/WHIP.
Thanks in advance
1. I would hang onto to Adams for now.
2. I may drop Cishek if you can get Saves. If you really want him gone, try to trade him.
Jeff- I’d much appreciate your ranking of these injured NL starting pitchers for output ROS: Josh Johnson, Pat Corbin, Brandon Beachy, Jaime Garcia.
I would go Corbin, Garcia, Beachy and Johnson.
Corbin is the youngest of the bunch with the lightest injury history which gives him the edge in my book.
Garcia sounds like he is getting closer to returning, but honestly at this point I’m not sure what he can be counted on for. He may return and may 5-6 good starts and then wind back on the DL with shoulder soreness or something. Poor guy seems cursed with injury bad luck.
Beachy hasnt pitched in the majors since 2013 and is coming back from his second Tommy John and I think he has mentioned he is trying to change his mechanics to avoid another elbow injury. I think he is more on the radar for 2016 in terms of fantasy potential than 2015 at this point for me.
Johnson seems like a nice guy, but I’m not sure we will ever see a healthy, productive Josh Johnson on a MLB mound again. I hope he proves me wrong, but until he comes back and proves he can be healthy and effective it is hard to count on him for anything.
I agree with this list and may move Garcia above since he will be the first back. If he sucks, cut him for Corbin. Not sure if he is available, but Nova falls into this group of pitchers.
Thanks, guys! That really helped.
Is there anywhere I can find updated HURT or PAIN rankings? Or, will those be updated soon? Would like to know which slow starters are playing through injury and should be shipped or dropped.
I will run them Thursday. I wanted to yesterday, but ran out of time.