HR/FB Rate Decliners Through the Lens of Batted Ball Distance

Yesterday, I took our first look at the batted ball distance leaderboard to identify hitters who could enjoy a surge in HR/FB rate. Today I’ll check in on the potential decliners. This could perhaps be your sell candidates. I’m going to ignore the obvious ones that have still posted strong distance marks, like Bryce Harper at at 35.5% HR/FB rate, backed by a 323 foot distance. Obviously, he’s going to regress, but that big distance suggests a career year in the power department.

Nelson Cruz has played his entire career in strong hitting environments. So naturally the assumption was that the move to his first pitcher friendly home park is going to take a huge bite out of his power. So far, Cruz has laughed at that notion as his HR/FB sits at a ridiculous 30.4%. Yet, his batted ball distance has actually declined by about seven feet! Given his low line drive rate, high fly ball rate and elevated IFFB%, one also wonders how his BABIP is sitting at .346. He appears to be the primiest sell high candidate in all the world.

Pat yourselves on the back and enjoy what you’ve gotten so far Stephen Vogt owners, because although he has shown solid power in the minors, this is crazy. I highly doubt anyone is buying him though, so might as well just keep starting him as long as he remains in the middle of the Athletics lineup. I think he’ll continue to produce solid fantasy value, but this level of power isn’t going to be maintained.

Ummm, Mark Teixeira has a .152 BABIP. His home run total is double his singles total! Between he and Alex Rodriguez, it’s been a pretty darn good first month of the season for the oldies in that Yankees lineup. Since everyone assumes Teixeira is going to hurt himself at some point and his .212 average isn’t exactly attracting a following, he, too, is going to be difficult to get a whole lot for. Just be aware that although his HR/FB rate is sitting at a career high, his distance is down 14 feet from last year.

Jimmy Paredes has become public enemy number one for me, as his silly hot streak has stolen Steve Pearce’s job. And since Buck Showalter is clearly ignorant of the research that hot streaks have no predictive value, he loves to play the hot hand. I have no idea where this has come from as his highest ISO at any minor league stop was just .174. And although the batted ball distance doesn’t match with the HR/FB rate, it is still clearly well above what Paredes has done in the past. We’ll just have to see how this one pans out.

George Springer’s distance ranked third in baseball last year at 309 feet. So that means his distance is down a whopping 36 feet. Since he continues to strike out a ton, a decline in HR/FB rate is going to be real bad news for his batting average. Of course, with just a .242 BABIP, he was due for a surge, especially given his strong batted ball profile.

Justin Upton’s distance is down 16 feet from last season, yet his HR/FB rate is sitting at a career high. That increases the risk that his power take a short-term downturn. But since he’s running frequently again, it could offset any marginal loss in power. He’s not a sell high.

Is this finally the big Eric Hosmer breakout? Nope! His distance is literally identical to his mark last year, yet his HR/FB rate has nearly tripled. That just isn’t sustainable. That he’s already attempted three steals this year after just six attempts all of last season is a good sign. As is his line drive heavy batted ball distribution, which supports an inflated BABIP. But with a sub-30% fly ball rate and an impending HR/FB rate decline without a jump in distance, he’s going to have a difficult time reaching the 20 homer plateau…again.

Pop quiz hot shot — who ranks last in all of baseball in batting ball distance? Matt Adams. Whaaaaaaaat?! Yeah, my reaction too. At least last year he supplemented his disappointing power output with a good batting average, buoyed by an inflated BABIP. He does have a similar HR/FB rate, but with that distance, it’s not going to last. And with that distance, you gotta wonder what’s going on with him at the plate. Hidden injury? I don’t know. But it makes him worthless in 12-team and shallower mixed leagues.