The Daily Grind: Eovaldi, Iglesias, Davis, Phillips

Agenda

1. Two Ways to GPP
2. Daily DFS – Eovaldi and Bolsinger
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Iglesias, Elias, Davis, Phillips
5. Factor Grid

1. Two Ways to GPP

I focus all of my DFS play on guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). The cash game side feels like a hustle. Due to the site rake, you have to win at a 60 percent rate to make any money. And you’d have to do it at a ridiculous volume to make anything approaching real money. Bah.

At a high level there are two ways to play a GPP. Many are multi-entry which allows you to build diverse rosters. DFS pros will enter dozens of different lineups each day. They’re maximizing their chances for a big pay day. Unfortunately, a slump can be very costly.

Like a lottery, the marginal value of a new ticket (lineup) is usually very low. Let’s say you join a 10,000 entry GPP. Your chance to win the top prize with one lineup is roughly 1 in 10,000 or 0.01 percent. Intuitively two lineups is a 0.02 percent chance at top prize. Using words, you’ve doubled your odds from extremely unlikely to still extremely unlikely.

The point here is that it’s almost as easy to lose with a lot of lineups as it is with just one or a few. To break even with 10 $1 lineups, you’ll either need one lineup to finish around the top one percent or multiple lineups in the top 15 percent.

An alternative approach is to simply field one lineup and invest less money. The downside is obvious – there are fewer ways to win. However, for somebody with a limited bankroll (fantasy baseball writer raises his hand), it’s a lot easier to break even.

I’ve yet to spike a lineup this year, and I’m down a little over $100 on the season. I started the year using the first strategy I described, but I’ve switched to the more conservative approach. You just need to reach the top 15 percent to make money rather than spike one highly performing roster.

2. Daily DFS – Eovaldi and Bolsinger

Yesterday’s Grind

I recommended Nathan Eovaldi as a streaming target yesterday. Often, stream picks don’t make for good DFS selections. In the case of Eovaldi at Tropicana Field, I’m mildly hopeful. Eovaldi’s biggest weakness is an inability to fully leverage his 96 mph heater. The result is a tepid strikeout rate despite seemingly overwhelming stuff.

As best I can tell, he just doesn’t have anything that plays well off the pitch. His release point isn’t very tight between pitches, but it’s also not bad. Maybe batters can pick up on the subtle difference between pitch types. In any event, the Rays are somewhat strikeout prone and the stadium favors pitchers.

Alternatively, Mike Bolsinger costs almost nothing on FanDuel ($4,700). If there’s an expense stack you want to bet upon, he doesn’t need to do much to return value. Your hitters will have to carry the burden. He lives on a 87 mph cutter and a curve.

Stack Targets: Mark Buehrle, Chris Tillman, Sean O’Sullivan, Mike Foltynewicz, Nick Martinez, Mike Fiers, Rubby de la Rosa, Kyle Kendrick, Justin Masterson, Drew Pomeranz, James Paxton

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has identified 36 hitters today. Below are some of my favorites.

Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren
Josh Reddick vs. Justin Masterson
Prince Fielder vs. Edinson Volquez
Adam LaRoche, J.B. Shuck, Adam Eaton, and Jose Abreu vs. Mike Fiers
Russell Martin vs. Chris Tillman
Salvador Perez and Jarrod Dyson vs. Nick Martinez

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Iglesias, Elias, Davis, Phillips

Pitchers to Start: Raisel Iglesias returns to the majors for start number two. Last time around, I noted his multiple arm angles. Those allowed his repertoire to play up in a crafty sort of way. The key to his success is to keep hitters uncomfortable at the plate. He’s the kind of guy who could crumble the third time through the lineup. I expect about five innings and five strikeouts.

Also consider: Carlos Frias, Hector Santiago

Pitchers to Exploit: I actually like Roenis Elias, but a matchup against a very right-handed Padres lineup is not for him. San Diego has just a 103 wRC+ against lefties. We’re still in small sample territory, and they have a number of righties who thrive with the platoon advantage. I think Elias has enough to stave off a blowout.

Also consider: Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Nolasco, Eric Stults, Jose Quintana

Hitters (power): Khris Davis is a part of an underperforming Brewers lineup. He’s a guy I’ve targeted in multiple leagues. He’s made a subtle but important adjustment at the plate which has allowed him to drive the ball to all fields. That should help his BABIP. He has a career low .173 ISO. With the new higher average approach and a likely increase in power, he should be a modestly valuable fantasy asset. He’ll have the platoon advantage tomorrow.

Also consider: Derek Norris, D.J. LeMahieu, Justin Maxwell, Scooter Gennett, Kevin Kiermaier, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Smoak, Mark Canha

Hitters (speed): Brandon Phillips hasn’t stolen over five bases since 2012. He already has five on the season to go with an empty .319/.358/.353 line. He’ll face a hittable lefty – Eric Stults. With plenty of balls in play, there’s a decent chance he’ll notch a couple hits. If he does, he could take his sixth steal.

Also consider: Drew Stubbs, Angel Pagan, Adam Eaton, Anthony Gose, Denard Span

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link. It’s a dry day with mostly green and yellow stadiums. If you like to pick pitchers based on location, a couple really stand out.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.