We have some fancy tools here at FanGraphs, but sometimes brute force works just as well. In fact, Glenn DuPaul found once that strikeouts minus walks beat the ERA predictors at their own game.

Maybe it’s no surprise. That’s the heart of the game, getting outs and keeping people off the basepaths. And maybe sometimes this other stuff is just pyrite. Just because you get a lot of ground balls doesn’t mean you won’t give up home runs. Even if you have a limited arsenal, if you can get strikeouts and limit the walks, you can have success. So focus in on the Ks and the BBs.

Let’s make a list.

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Agenda

1. High-level 50/50 strategy
2. DFS tinkerings
3. Tuesdays with uhh…someone
4. It’s April and I’m running out of ways to say Table

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It is hard not to at least like a player with a 112 wRC+ and that is dual eligible at second and third base, but I am starting to fall less in love with Matt Carpenter as a fantasy player.

My reasoning is not based on his numbers shrinking down from where they were last year, I think the power will come back a bit at least in the form of more doubles and I think he’s going to score a bunch of runs and hit for a high average. My problem with Carpenter lies in the lack of homers and lack of steals he provides a fantasy roster.
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Process, not results.

We all know this axiom. It applies to front offices and fantasy baseball players alike. It’s especially important for daily fantasy players to stick to the process and not get caught up in the results. There will be stretches where you find it difficult to cash, and there will certainly be stretches where you’ll find your bankroll stagnant. During those stretches it’s important that you not question your process. Stick with it, and over time you’ll see that bankroll grow.

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In my FanGraphs+ write up of Michael Brantley, I wrote, “Michael Brantley out-earned Bryce Harper this year. That is probably the last time I’ll be able to type that sentence, but it does give you a sense of how much value Brantley created compared to his cost.”

Brantley broke double digit home runs for the first time in 2013 and set a new career high in stolen bases, as well. He put up solid R and RBI numbers (more combined than Harper, for example) and his .284 average was enough to help any fantasy team. And 2014 is shaping up to be even better.

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Last week, I used my expected strikeout rate equation to identify the starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates are most below their expected marks. Today, I’ll look at the other primary skill metric — a pitcher’s walk rate. I developed an expected walk rate equation as well and still use essentially the same one now, unlike the xK% formula which I had since tweaked. The walk rate equation isn’t as good as the strikeout rate one, but it’s the best I have seen out there.

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Monday is the best day, Roto Riteup readers.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jose Abreu keeps breaking records
2. Kyle Seager busts out
3. Matt Harrison debuts
4. Danny Salazar makes me happy
5. The Furious Five

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• Well, it wasn’t quite a save situation, but Bullpen Report favorite Hector Rondon looked good in Chicago today. The Cubs right-hander put the finishing touches on a 4-0 win, doing so in fine fashion by striking out the side. Rondon doesn’t quite have eye-popping numbers, but his mid-90’s fastball is enough to keep his swinging strike rate in the double digits and complement his slider (which gets whiffs one of every five times he throws it). His primary knock historically was health, he’s dealt with a fractured arm and has already undergone Tommy John surgery once. However, he managed to make it through 2013 relatively unscathed and continues to look fairly healthy in 2014. While Pedro Strop also tossed a scoreless inning today, Rondon’s outing (both usage and the subsequent punchouts) seems to make him the odds on favorite for the next save at Wrigley. The Cubs don’t project to be a save-heavy team, but Rondon is one of the few nice speculative adds among guys with sub-10% ownership percentages.

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Episode 112

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette and Nick Minnix discuss players on the mend, players breaking down, changes in starting rotation, 2-start pitchers, and of course, closer craziness.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music. Approximately 61 minutes of joyous analysis.  

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There are people smarter than you. Definitely in general terms, but also more than likely when it comes to baseball, analysis and projections.

I don’t mean to hurt your feelings – the fact that there are people smarter than you is great. A lot of them work in Vegas, and they can be a big help when it comes to identifying players and match-ups to target on your daily fantasy team.

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