No Longer in Love With Matt Carpenter
It is hard not to at least like a player with a 112 wRC+ and that is dual eligible at second and third base, but I am starting to fall less in love with Matt Carpenter as a fantasy player.
My reasoning is not based on his numbers shrinking down from where they were last year, I think the power will come back a bit at least in the form of more doubles and I think he’s going to score a bunch of runs and hit for a high average. My problem with Carpenter lies in the lack of homers and lack of steals he provides a fantasy roster.
Everyone needs runs and RBI, and getting the 126 fellow Carpenter owners got last season certainly was a nice boost. However, combining for 14 home runs and steals was less compelling. I imagine I am not alone in being essentially forced to keep Carpenter due to drafting him very last last season. I still love Carpenter at the value I had him, but I don’t think he will help out our fake teams quite like we were all hoping.
Now seems to be the time to move him to another squad that is looking for help in the average/obp and run departments. He will certainly be a boost to any team needing help in such areas, and the added boost if you are in a keeper league of having him at a very low cost will make him even more appealing to acquiring owners.
This certainly is not a sell high move, but it is a sell move before he hits a low. Fantasy people overrated Carpenter coming into the year as much as they underrated him last season. Some owners will really love his attributes and want him while others will be more than fine moving on for a guy with a lesser average but with more power and speed. For me, I am of the latter at this position.
You won’t get much speed from catcher or first base on average, so making sure your second baseman is producing with either power, speed, or both is an essential part to building a well rounded squad.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Everyone was way too in love with this guy. What were your preseason projections? I had him for .297, 77 R, 65 RBI, 11 HR, 3 SB. Making him my 141st overall player. Needless to say, I don’t own him in any league.
I completely agree. His numbers are good, not 5th round worthy.
He was 7th overall in points leagues last year, had 73 extra base hits (more than Miggy), and scored 126 runs. If one thought (probably foolishly) he was going to come close to repeating those numbers, then he was definitely worth a 5th rounder.
92.3 R, 10.9 HR, 52.6 RBIs, 5.2 SB, 0.287 AVG
He’s very nice to have in points leagues
What sort of return would you want from him if you have him in the later rounds as a keeper?
ISO is way down so far, but I expect the ROS to be similar to what we saw last year. (Slightly fewer doubles, but still a high number…) I also expect him to steal 12-13 bases this year based on info written by Derrick Goold (St. Louis beat writer), so a drop in runs would be somewhat offset by the Cardinals allowing him to run on occasion.
In Otto points he was worth 6.57 Pts/G (20th best out of all hitters) with flexible position eligibility last year. In terms of total production, his 1,031.5 points ranked him 9th out of all hitters. It’s not hard to imagine that kind of production being worth $30+ dollars last year.
Perhaps he outperformed his true talent level, but I would hardly balk at anyone willing to shell out some dollars for him in auctions this year. I personally chose not to, given the abundance of under-the-radar alternatives like Utley, Infante and Dozier.
ZiPS knew this in March.
ZiPS RoS:
Carpenter 69-57- 8- 4 .273
Player B: 73-57-13-12 .241
Player B is largely not owned and has both 2B and 3B eligibility.
I own both, so that doesn’t help me.
Player B could lose his playing time in the future, unlike Carpenter.
Kelly Johnson?
Semien?
So would I be justified in dropping Carpenter and picking up Gennett?