The Daily Grind: 4-28-14 – Present by FanDuel

Agenda

1. High-level 50/50 strategy
2. DFS tinkerings
3. Tuesdays with uhh…someone
4. It’s April and I’m running out of ways to say Table

1. 50/50 Strategy

As I admitted about 10 days ago, the 50/50 format is not my forte. The payoff is too modest to hold my attention, and I don’t feel comfortable putting forward the volume of money necessary to scratch out a real profit with the format. I would need a successful proof of concept to take the leap. Unfortunately, my consultee and I put our energy into tournament lineups that we also entered into 50/50’s. Big mistake (yea I make mistakes).

While I’m not sure if I’ll ever jump into the 50/50 deep end, I have been researching better strategy. On the FanDuel platform, you’ll need about 35-45 points to pretty comfortably make money. That’s the equivalent of 88-93 wins in real baseball. You’ll want to target one of the best pitchers on the day. If there’s a low cost guy who looks like a 15 point pitcher, go for it. Usually you’re going to pay top dollar. From there, you want to go value hunting while diversifying your lineup. Ideally, you’ll avoid any stacks. It’s best to focus on top-of-the-lineup hitters for away teams, but sometimes the value will take you elsewhere.

If your pitching gives you 15 points, you’ll need just 3.125 points per position player to reach a total of 40. A couple home runs and a couple multi-hit games will get you to the finish line.

2. Mini-Monday

It’s all late today and it’s thin-thin-thin. Seven games total but weather reduces your choices to just five “safe” games.

The two danger games are played in Cincinnati and Chicago. More on them in the weather section, but I’m ignoring them as options today.

A game in Texas is usually a good target for stacking, but this one features Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray. Next.

The only stackable game is in Arizona, where Franklin Morales opposes Wade Miley. I’ll look to target right-handed Rockies.

Because there isn’t much else to write about for today’s games, Michael Wacha, Yovani Gallardo, Tyson Ross, and Madison Bumgarner all feature extremely fantastic matchups. Ross and Bumgarner feature the friendliest park and terrible opposing lineups.

3. Tuesday

There might be doubleheaders tomorrow. Probably not.

Pitchers to Start: Cole Hamels is back tomorrow. He’s not on your waiver wire is he? Opposing Hamels is Jon Niese. He’s looked decent in his return from injury. More importantly, he’ll face a Phillies lineup that recently struck out 12 times against Brandon McCarthy.

If anyone happened to dump CC Sabathia in your league (unlikely, I know), a game against the Seattle Mariners is one of the few times I’d use him. Yes, I firmly believe Sabathia is a waiver quality pitcher despite the crowd feeling else wise. I’d rather own the aforementioned McCarthy (and I don’t).

John Lackey is your typical waiver wire streamer. He’s good enough for when he has a juicy matchup. Tomorrow’s matchup qualifies; the Rays offense is good, but Erik Bedard is not.

Jose Quintana isn’t a grade A streaming option against the Detroit Tigers, but he’s good enough in a pinch. A win is a long shot against Justin Verlander. Crazier things happen.

Pitchers to Exploit: Chris Young is a very extreme fly ball pitcher scheduled to face lefties at Yankees Stadium. The icing on the cake – he’s walked more than he’s struck out in his 18 innings this season.

Red Sox righties will have the pleasure of facing Bedard. I don’t suppose Shane Victorino is available or cheap in your league?

This may be Dustin McGowan’s last start for the Blue Jays. Scuttlebutt is Marcus Stroman will soon take his spot. For tomorrow, try some of those left-handed Royals.

Jarred Cosart is a reliever. We’ve probably known this since before the Phillies traded him to the Astros. He’s just proving it now. If you want to be sneaky and have some room on the bench, he could be closing by the end of the season. Dynasty owners take note.

Tyler Chatwood versus Michael Bolsinger could be a high scoring affair.

Hitters (power): OMG, like every Yankee.

Ok my soul hurts now, Jonny Gomes has his usual thing against Bedard.

If Adam LaRoche is available in your league, he’s a great play tomorrow.

Corey Dickerson should be back in the lineup after a couple days off.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis will leadoff against Quintana.

Norichika Aoki’s ownership is only going to be low for so long.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Cincinnati appears certain to have thunderstorms for about three hours beginning right at game time. They could start earlier and last longer. My bet is the game gets cancelled. Chicago also has a chance of rain all evening, but it’s a little less certain. It’s still a game to avoid.

The Link. With the probable rain outs, there isn’t much to use. The game in Texas is off the table for stacking, which leaves you with one stackable game.

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