Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 27 — For Draftstreet

There are people smarter than you. Definitely in general terms, but also more than likely when it comes to baseball, analysis and projections.

I don’t mean to hurt your feelings – the fact that there are people smarter than you is great. A lot of them work in Vegas, and they can be a big help when it comes to identifying players and match-ups to target on your daily fantasy team.

The best way in which Vegas can help is probably with run lines. You should still check out match-ups and weather conditions on your own, but high run lines can point you in the direction of useful information. In particular, high run lines with a money line that favors one team strongly can point to a pitcher worth stacking against.

As an example, Philly-Arizona has the highest O/U at 9.5 Sunday. That’s helpful, though the team’s essentially being even money doesn’t point to whether A.J. Burnett or Brandon McCarthy is the better stacking opponent (it’s McCarthy).

Meanwhile, Cincy-Atlanta and Pittsburgh-St. Louis both have O/Us of 6.5. The former is even money, though, while the latter has the Cardinals as heavy favorites. That points to Adam Wainwright being a great play, though your mileage will vary depending on how you like to allocate your budget.

The Daily Five
Trevor Rosenthal – $2,535
What else does a low run total and a heavy favorite suggest? It suggests an optimal situation for the closer of that favorite. An O/U of 6.5 with the Cardinals a heavy favorite suggests scores like 4-1, 4-2 and 4-3 are in play. Rosenthal didn’t pitch on Saturday, so he’s good to go, and while the point total may not be great, closers can provide a solid points-per-dollar return if they play. There is, however, a moderate storm risk here, thought the 2:15 start means the game could be fit in with a delay.

Wily Peralta – $15,865
Peralta draws the Cubs and their .275 wOBA against righties in the early going. They also strike out 24 percent of the time, which in combination with Peralta’s 18.5 percent K-rate make him a nice options for punchouts, which rule for fantasy starters. Vegas agrees here, setting the run line at 7.5 and showing the Brewers as heavy favorites.

Dodgers stack – the Dodgers draw Jorge de la Rosa, who has been fairly terrible in the early going. His one saving grace has been strikeouts, which normally aren’t a big part of his profile. He’s historically been very friendly to right-handed hitters while shutting down lefties, and while the Dodgers have been poor against southpaws in the early going, that’s not historically the case for some of their key players. Avoid Hanley Ramirez though, at least until more information on the thumb injury he suffered Saturday is known.
Yasiel Puig – $7,274 (okay, this one’s mostly for fun)
Matt Kemp – $6,331
Scott Van Slyke – $5,485 (it”s a small sample but he’s been excellent against lefties as a major leaguer)

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