I’m not a connoisseur of much of anything pop culture, and I don’t consider myself the most well-informed citizen on any particular subject. I probably give myself less credit than I deserve, relative to the general population. Which is full of people who know what is “just the best,” even though it’s something different every other day. Which of course instantly discredits them because of their failure to understand the function of a superlative. But that doesn’t mean I won’t worry about my own qualifications.

I have doubts about whether the kind of fancy tier names I’ll generate will be worthy of those that have graced the virtual pages of FanGraphs. Howard Bender classified the catchers based on lodging chains at which he’s stayed (I’m just assuming, probably incorrectly, but amusingly) last month. That’s a good theme, fairly simple. I’ll try to follow that lead.

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Agenda

1. Advice for a losing streak
2. DFS for today
3. Fantasy action for tomorrow
4. Table Time TM

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Let’s be honest, if you’re watching baseball tonight, you’re watching Jose Fernandez and Alex Wood square off again. If that wasn’t your plan, you should immediately make it your plan. Last week – when the two first met – it was magical, as Jeff Sullivan wrote. Even if you aren’t a huge fan of either team, tune in for the fact that the two men above are two of the quickest working staring pitchers in the game, which is always a plus.

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You’ll hear us talk about statistical stabilization here, and link to pieces like Russell Carleton’s or Derek Carty’s. The basic idea is that there are thresholds at which a stat moves into a decent sample and becomes more meaningful.

Maybe you’ll come away thinking that we’ve said that ‘x stat is stable so that’s what you’ll get the rest of the way,’ and if so, that’s on us. That’s not what stabilization means in this context.

What it means is that the r-squared number that correlates a player’s past stats with his future stats in that category has passed .50. That’s a mouthful, here’s another try: if you were to try and predict future work in a category, you’d regress their current work against the league average. At the stabilization point, you can use half their own number plus half the league average in your calculations.

One more try, in the most colloquial language possible: Stabilization is the point at which a number in a category tells us more about their future work than the league average.

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Yesterday, I used my xBB% equation to identify starting pitchers whose actual walk rates were most above their expected marks. This group should be expected to enjoy a decline in their walk rates moving forward. Today I check in on the guys who may be due for regression. This is your list of fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose xBB% marks are most above their actual walk rates.

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With all due respect to Mr. Zach Sanders, the Tuesday Roto Riteup is better than Monday. It is also definitely the best RR day that begins with a T.

On today’s agenda:
1. Bryce Harper to miss two months
2. Josh Reddick could be on the upswing
3. Another quality start from Tyler Skaggs
4. The Daily Five

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There weren’t many games on the schedule today so just a few brief bullet points for tonight. I’ll be sure to use the comment section below with any additional news that comes up later this evening or into tomorrow.

• Jim Johnson lost his closer’s role to a committee in Oakland but he might be returning to the ninth inning. Via Jane Lee, Johnson’s latest run has “elevated” his chances of regaining the closer’s role according to A’s manager Bob Melvin. Johnson’s 5.73 ERA isn’t fun to look at but he’s thrown 7.2 scoreless innings in a row since April 11th with eight strikeouts against just two walks.  Earlier this season Johnson was struggling with his command, so it’s promising to see him throw strikes more consistently. A 3.83 xFIP doesn’t equate to shutdown closer, but it’s close to his career norms. If Johnson’s control is back to form while he continues to kill worms, his chances of being the closer in Oakland relatively soon look promising.

• Carlos Martinez threw a scoreless eighth inning tonight lowering his ERA to 2.93. Martinez “only” has 13 strikeouts in 15.1 innings pitched this year but his fantastic 13.5 SwStr% indicates more Ks are in his future. Martinez has maintained his high 90s velocity this year (96.9 mph) and projects to be one of the better set up men in the league. In a holds league, I’d look to buy low on Martinez’ good but not great and average K-rate if possible, knowing that both are likely to improve. Martinez won’t be sniffing saves unless Trevor Rosenthal gets hurt or moves to the rotation, neither are necessarily likely scenarios but the latter might be something to keep an eye on in deep dynasty leagues, as Martinez would clearly be the next in line.

• Brewers lefty Will Smith (2.46 xFIP) struck out both batters he faced tonight and has yet to allow a run in 11.1 innings this year. Smith’s walk-rate has been a bit high thus (4.79 B/9)  far but it’s been basically average throughout his minor league career and brief time in the majors, so I don’t envision it being a concern. Smith is still behind Jim Henderson (who threw a scoreless inning tonight) on the saves ladder, but if K-Rod needs a day of rest (the dude gets saves daily) Smith could see an opportunity against a lefty heavy lineup.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• One item to follow for DL return dates is what the team says for timetable. Mark Trumbo predicted he will be out only six weeks, but the team expects the delay to be longer:

D-backs manager Kirk Gibson corroborated the prognosis of left fielder Mark Trumbo, specifying that the length of his absence due to a stress fracture in his left foot might be even longer than the six weeks Trumbo predicted.

“The summary I got on it confirmed six to eight weeks probably,” Gibson said. “He’s got a boot on there with something on it called a bone enhancer that sends some stimulation down there. I know that he had [an injury] previously on the other foot and that was lengthy. We don’t expect that to be that lengthy.”

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Welcome to the regularly updated Top 50 Impact Rookies for 2014. This ranking tool grades freshman players based on their projected MLB impacts for 2014 only (not future years) so it will vary significantly from typical Top 50 or 100 prospects lists.

*Masahiro Tanaka (and other Japanese hurlers) has been omitted due to his service time in Japan, as well as the level of competition. Cuban and Mexican imports have not been omitted due to the lower level of competition in their respective countries.

Updated: April 28, 2014

RoY Fav Jose Abreu | White Sox (1B)

April 28: It’s been an up-and-down month for Abreu’s value but he’s currently leading rookies in WAR at 0.9, as well as in home runs with 10, RBIs with 31 and weighted runs created (wRC+) at 152. In fact, he’s leading the Majors in home runs and RBI. The White Sox would be kind of lost without him right now.

April 21: Just over a week ago, commenters were up-in-arms that Abreu wasn’t No. 1 on this list but we’ve now seen what makes The Show so damn tough. After striking out just five times in his first 10 games, the Cuban import has gone down on strikes 11 times in his next seven contests. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is sitting at .224.

April 10: Abreu, a Cuba native, entered the 2014 season with a lot of question marks given his lack of track record in North America. A solid spring and respectable start to the MLB season has helped to alleviate some of those concerns.

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Occasionally, the collective fantasy baseball community reflects on a productive single-season performance and sees a top-10 value that doesn’t really fit the underlying skills. The title of this column belies the vagueness of that opening line, but the upshot is something many people said last year and repeated ad nauseum over the winter. While Brandon Phillips was the sixth-ranked fantasy second baseman in 2013, many people were concerned with the declined skill set that lurked below the surface — a surface that was largely buoyed by his 103 RBI.

In 2013, his ISO dropped to .135, which was a career low. He only stole single-digit bases for the first time since 2005, when he only had nine plate appearances with the Cleveland Indians. He continued swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone, and his swinging-strike rate eclipsed 10.0% for the first time since the 2008 season.

Phillips essentially experienced a drop-off in many major peripheral statistics, and he people suddenly became concerned that he was on the wrong side of 30 and about to experience a precipitous decline. I ranked him as a fourth-tier second baseman coming into the season and noted significant concerns throughout the offseason.

Of course, the overarching point of this article is to illustrate that those concerns were fully justified. Brandon Phillips has been brutal throughout the month of April, and if we pull back the veil and peak at the underlying numbers, the picture becomes even more bleak and troublesome. Things aren’t getting better. They’re getting much worse, and as the title suggests, I’m turning my back and sprinting away from him as much as possible.

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